According to electorialvote.com we are going to

[doc03]

slaughter November 2. I think yesterday we had around 222 seats solid Democrat and 20 something ties. Today we have 203 solid Democrat and 43 ties. We did gain one in the Senate.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[onehandle]

1. Nate Silver says otherwise. Lose House, several Governors seats, but not the Senate. nt

[Winterblues]

4. While Nate is very good, it is just too early for that declaration..

Most people are just now starting to pay attention....

[Staph]

2. You need to look at their methodology....

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/House/house.html

Prediction Methodology

To make predictions about how CDs will go without having polling data, we have to assemble some other data. In particular, for each CD we know the PVI, the 2008 election results, whether the incumbent is running again, and if so, how firmly established the representative is (i.e., how many elections has he or she won).

With this data available, here is the algorithm used in the table below. These predictions (given in the last column) will be used as our default value until a poll is published. For every race, each of the following steps is evaluated in order until one of them applies.

1. If a candidate has no major party opponent, the candidate wins.
2. An incumbent who got >= 58% of the vote in a contested 2008 election wins.
3. Any CD where the 2008 race was decided by less than 3% is a tossup.
4. Any incumbent first elected before 2000 wins.
5. Any Republican incumbents in a district that is R+3 or more wins.
6. Any Democratic incumbent in districts that is D+8 or more wins.
7. An open seat in an R+5 or more district goes to the Republican.
8. An open seat in a D+5 or more district goes to the Democrat.
9. All other races are Tossups.

If they don't have polling data from a relatively unbiased polling firm, they make assumptions based on the 2008 election. And the 2008 election was heavily Democratic. Nate Silver and the folks at FiveThirtyEight.com use a completely different formula, with much less of a bias from the 2008 election.

I follow both sites, but at the moment, I think that Nate, unfortunately, has the more accurate forecast.

[PoliticAverse]

3. Check where people put their money where their mouths are...

There are two places where people can actually put "their money where their mouths are" and place "bets" on
the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections.

A political market for research purposes run by the University of Iowa:
Overview: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/congress10.html
Current quotes: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Congress10_Quotes.html

And intrade.com :
Political markets at intrade https://www.intrade.com/aav2/menu.jsp
(click on "Politics" then "2010 US Midterm elections").

As I write this the Iowa market has the odds of Republicans taking the house at a little over 80% and
Intrade has the odds of Republicans taking the house at about 73%. Iowa has the odds of the Democrats
retaining the senate at about 78% and Intrade has the Democrats retaining the senate at about 60%.

I've used the University of Iowa's market in the past it has the approval of the US Commodity and Futures
Trading commission. There is some question on the legality if Intrade for US residents.