Democrats' Senate odds improve as key races tighten

[babylonsister]

Democrats' Senate odds improve as key races tighten




By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers


DENVER — For months, Republican Ken Buck held a clear edge in his bid to win a key U.S. Senate seat away from the Democrats in Colorado.

Now, in the final days of the campaign, Buck was on the defensive as he met with a friendly group of Republican businesswomen in a Denver office building on a crisp autumn evening.

snip//

"It now appears that the long advantage that the Republicans and Mr. Buck had has dissipated," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Denver pollster.

There are two key reasons, Ciruli said. First, the Democrats are targeting messages to women on issues such as abortion and rape, and to older women on Social Security. "The base is coming together, and they're probably picking up some unaffiliated voters," he said.

more...

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/10/22/102471/democrats-rebound-senate-races.html

[Robb]

1. Buck's "lead" was horseshit from the get-go.

I can't speak for the rest of these races, of course, but Buck's "lead" over Bennet was poll-tinkering fabrication, as local observers have known for months.

[babylonsister]

2. It's be nice if that applied to all these races. Here's hoping. nt

[HillbillyBob]

3. I can tune out the political adds now w/o guilt

No one I can talk to is going to listen(have already said no) .
I took myself off to the courthouse this week and did early vote ..but this is a mostly D county. And any schmuck that 'challenges' me about my registration is gonna get a taste of my bad attitude (usually about enough I can be scary when I go off my thyroid med) if that does not do it I've may cane and pepperspray. I will not let some maroon interfere with my right to vote or any others.

[asjr]

4. Election years have become cash cows

for any media outlet. Big bucks for advertisments, a three-ring circus for voters. Can it get any worse?

[jerryster]

5. I hate to be a killjoy, but...

I just checked in at fivethirtyeight.com. Here are Nate Silver's numbers (percentage chance of win) for the races you referenced.

CO 65% Republican
Il 61% Republican (last week he had this at 54% Democrat)
NV 66% Republican
PA 84% Republican
WA 86% Democrat
WV 51% Democrat (last week this race was in the R column)

Here is the link to the most depressing news of the day from fivethirtyeight.com.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/22/for-first-time-model-has-g-o-p-favored-to-win-50-plus-house-seats/

[Dawgs]

8. Why is that depressing? It's one persons best guess based on questionable polls.

He could be right, but there are many other signs today that Dems will outperform media and polls.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. Nate cannot predict turnout. He will be proven wrong if we don't get out and vote...

and get everyone we know and don't know to vote. Nate Silver is not a GOD. He's not the end-all, be-all. We can change the outcome of these races simply by increasing turnout.

[jerryster]

12. Turnout is key, I absolutely agree

With a great turnout the outcome could change.

[DemocraticPilgrim]

6. Let's not forget the house too folks. n/t

[B Calm]

7. Republican Dan Coats lobbyist for foreign governments,

big banks and corporations that ship American jobs overseas has a huge lead here in Indiana. People in this state are just stupid!

[saltpoint]

11. B Calm, it's not your fault, but I do hear you on the

voters in Indiana who think Dan Coats is an acceptable public servant.

Hard to wrap my head around that one. I'm still angry at the majority who picked him the first time over Joe Hogsett.

[WillyT]

9. K & R !!!

:kick:

:hi:

[kentuck]

13. I think most of the tight races will go to the Democrat in the end...

Because Republicans are depending on the Tea Baggers to pull them through. They are betting on a wild card. There are many Tea Baggers that will refuse to vote for incumbent Republicans and Democrats may pick up a couple of seats nobody is looking at right now? The Tea Party voters cannot be counted on to vote for every Republican. They want to send a message, not vote for one Party or the other. Just my opinion.

[Blue_In_AK]

14. One that isn't mentioned there is Alaska,

which is definitely in play. As everyone knows, Joe Miller has had a very, very bad month, and this weekend a judge will rule on whether or not his employment records at the Fairbanks North Star Borough will be turned over. Lisa Murkowski obtained the endorsement of the Alaska Federation of Natives at their convention this week, but amidst controversy that the Board cancelled a Senate candidate debate that would have shown the three candidates side by side. Coincident with that, Lisa sent out a mailer with the headline: "Alaska Democrats Who Are Voting for Lisa Murkowski - and Not Scott McAdams," which they very quickly had to walk back since the Democrats mentioned are all supporting Scott McAdams and had not given permission for Lisa to use their "endorsements."

Below that header appear to be Murkowski testimonials from Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ethan Berkowitz, former candidate Bob Poe, among others, and positive comments from U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington, in The Oregonian.

The Democratic Party says the mailer "shows an especially stunning disregard for the truth."

Murkowski campaign manager Kevin Sweeney said it was the campaign's fault in last-minute changes to the flier. He says the headline should have read: "What Alaskan Democrats are saying about Lisa Murkowski." He says the campaign called Berkowitz and McAdams offices to apologize, and Murkowski called Berkowitz personally.

Patty Murray has also denied that she endorsed Lisa and said she fully supports Scott McAdams.

Lisa looks very desperate with this ploy. Does anyone really believe it was a typo? How does "What Alaskan Democrats are saying about Lisa Murkowski" morph into "Alaska Democrats Who Are Voting for Lisa Murkowski - and Not Scott McAdams" ? A typo? I don't think so.

Judging from the comments at the Anchorage Daily News on this latest act of desperation, a lot of fence-sitters are now throwing their support to Scott, who has conducted a very clean and ethical campaign, staying above the fray. Even people who don't necessarily agree with his political philosophy are giving him a second look.

I feel good about this election. As someone noted in a comment, "When someone shows you who they are, believe them."