Resurgent GOP closes in on House win, eyes Senate

[pstokely]

Source: AP Via Yahoo

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent David Espo, Ap Special Correspondent – 53 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Resurgent Republicans appear poised to capture control of the House if not the Senate on Tuesday in elections midway through President Barack Obama's term, reaping a rich harvest of voter discontent with the economy and profound public skepticism about the future.

Drawing strength from the clamorous tea party movement, the GOP also is in line to wrest governorships from Democrats in all regions of the country, according to political strategists in both parties and public opinion polls. Big-state races in Florida, Ohio, Illinois and California remain intensely competitive into the campaign's final hours.

Republicans must gain 40 seats to win control of the House and 10 to take the Senate. A victory in either case would spell the end of a two-year stretch in which Democrats controlled the White House and held comfortable majorities in both houses of Congress.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101030/ap_on_el_ge/us_elections_state_of_play

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Dewey Defeats Truman, GOTV

[whathehell]

1. I don't believe it.

I'll wait until AFTER the election.

[and-justice-for-all]

24. me either..nt

[demodonkey]

2. Ever-resurgent corporate media attempts to hold down Democratic vote....

... DON'T LISTEN, VOTE DEMOCRATIC! (and get everyone you know to do this too!)

[totodeinhere]

6. Yes, we all need to vote Democratic. But...

I don't necessarily believe that the media is engaging in a broad conspiracy to wrongly predict Republican victories in order to discourage Democratic voters. There are too many independent voices, including Nate Silver, who are predicting a big Republican win.

[RBInMaine]

17. Fuck them. Quit chirping their shit and GOTV !

[Roland99]

3. Wasn't there just an article the other day about a Democratic surge overtaking the GOP?

stupid M$M

[indimuse]

4. I DO NOT TRUST THE MEDIA!!!

.

[activa8tr]

5. AP news is an arm of the Repugnicant Party, I swear. They only

push the right wing agenda, with a constant barrage of 24/7 web "news" releases, which never paint a balanced picture.

They hate progressives, question them at every turn, and then write puff pieces for the Republicans, like this case in point.

As if it were mathematically possible for the Republicans to take over the Senate with Christine O'Donnell winning DE???

[totodeinhere]

8. Do the math. It is indeed mathematically possible for them to take control of the Senate

even if O'Donnell loses, which she probably will. Nate Silver gives them less than a 20% chance to do it, but it is possible.

[pstokely]

9. and it's mathematically for us to the keep House according to him

Think he has it at 17%

[totodeinhere]

10. Of course it is. I didn't say it wasn't. n/t

[pattmarty]

13. Uhm, that's LESS than O'Donnell's chance to beat an unknown in DE..........

......You're saying what, the Dem's chance is good, bad, what?

[RBInMaine]

18. Are you trolling or just being plain shitty?

[totodeinhere]

21. What's your problem? What I said is true. Or should I lie and say it's not

mathematically possible?

[YankeeLeft7x]

7. Where have you gone, Howard Dean?

The Corporate Media Wants GOP to WIN and never has accepted the Democrats won the last two election cycles.

Where have you gone, Howard Dean?

"Sitting on a sofa on a November 2, 2010 afternoon
Going to the Democratic Party loss debacle
Don't Laugh about it, but be mad about it
When know who ya'll choose
Ev’ry way you look at it you lose"

Where have you gone, Howard Dean?
A Deficient Democratic Party turns its lonely eyes to you
(Woo woo woo)
What’s that you say, Mrs. Pelosi
‘Hammering Howard Dean’ was kicked out and gone away?
(Hey hey hey – hey hey hey)

The Democrats will lose and lose again, as they did before,
No Karl Rove's or Palin's to boo, Only Rahm Emanuel's ghosts to abhor,
‘Hammering Howard Dean’ was kicked out and gone away
(Hey hey hey – hey hey hey)

GOP win and the Dems go away losers, again,
(Hey hey hey – hey hey hey)

[SemperEadem]

11. In a parallel universe with Diebold voting machines perhaps

but the thugs are getting ready to get their asses handed back to them.

[pasto76]

12. after the flaws in the gallup models were revealed I dont beleive any of them

we'll see what happens on Tuesday.

[AlbertCat]

14. More God Damn News of the Future!

What... again???? How many time have you read this "article"? No mention as whether it's what early voting is showing.

[Sonoman]

15. Oh, yeah, CA's REALLY close.

I live in a repub-heavy area (East part of Sonoma) and there is not one Whitman sign for miles. Fiorina, either.

Also, Hilda kicked her pasty ass out of last weeks Farmers Market.

Priceless.

Sonoman

[RBInMaine]

16. How many times does this corporate push-propaganda need to be posted? Enough!

[totodeinhere]

20. I'll check back with you on Wednesday and see if it's really propaganda

or if it's really true.

[RBInMaine]

22. AP is corporate shit. VERY biased. What's wrong with your head?

[totodeinhere]

23. Like I said, wait until Tuesday and we'll see. It doesn't accomplish anything to argue now

over what we think is going to happen.

[24601]

28. But it would be OK to make our calculated predictions - what we

believe will happen verses what we might want to happen. Making predictions 11pm election night strikes me as somewhat timid. Here are my predictions with a minimum of editorializing.

100% Obama retains White House. Boy that probability was tough since it's not on the ballot. But we are well served to remember that whatever happens elsewhere, he is still President. He does move somewhat right in an effort to pull a Clinton-style remake; however, his shift isn't as dramatic. For example he doesn't ever again refer to US voting opponents as enemies.

Democrats retain Senate with 53 members. Harry Reid is not among them but Joe Manchin is. Miller takes Alaska as too many people can't spell Murkowski. VP Joe Biden's attempt to change filibuster rules by ruling the Senate isn't a continuous body fails and may not even come to a vote since today's majority remembers being in the minority and will consult with him before anyone brings it up. Executive filibusters tend to fizzle anyway and with the House results (see next para) the Senate isn't where legislative battles will be decided - so the rules change would frighten Senators more then empower them effectively. Filibuster cloture will remain at 60 and rules changes at 2/3 of the Senators - something like 66 or 67.

The House is more problematic. Nancy Pelosi wins her seat does not run for leadership. The smaller Democratic Caucus is more left of senator as blue dogs & DINOs take a bigger proportional hit. Consequently, members pass by Steney Hoyer for minority leader in favor of someone less conservative. If he weren't overseeing the DCCC, it might have been Chris Van Hollen - but with the election baggage, I doubt it. The final caucus numbers, (D) 179, (R) 256 are not pretty but fall short of a Republican sweep of today's posted tossups.

State house races are more brutal. Final governor numbers are (D) 20, (R) 30. Here in Florida, all the crap surrounding efforts to get Meek to cave hurt Tuesday's turnout sufficiently that Alex Sink loses to Rick Scott. It's too late to get good numbers on this, but there is something intangible floating around and this is an intuitive call. Sadly, I can't vote here yet as we just moved. With all the focus on the US Congress, there has been less published (without paying for it - that is so NOT going to happen) about state legislature. Pun intended, this could turn out to be the elephant in the room, not affecting tidal wave elections, but with redistricting ahead, able to alter the course in closely fought years. I don't have enough data to make any numerical predictions about legislature realignments, but intuition again tells me that the lower the race, the easier to corral and direct voter anger.

Tuesday night/Wednesday (after work) I'll humbly and willingly eat crow if I'm wrong by more than 15% - and I'm an amateur. My only education is that my undergrad degree was a version of poly sci - a a few years as precinct election judge & chief judge back in Maryland.

[RBInMaine]

19. "Resurgent GOP" BULLSHIT! If we were at 8.5 unemployment WE would be coasting to victory. There is

NO new love of the RePUKES. People don't reason things through, and they vote the economy. Information and thought debt. Sad.

[The_Casual_Observer]

25. As if voting in some pathetic asshole tea baggers is going to fix anything.

You figure rand paul or thst shrew in Arizona have any solutions to anything?

[LaPera]

26. Get everyone you know out to vote Democratic.

[deacon]

27. Isn't there a thing where media isn't supposed to call elections before polls close?

Yanno, due to the fact it discourages voting. They've broken this vow for about two months now.