AK-Sen: GOP fears McAdams victory

[cal04]

Kos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/31/915362/-AK-Sen:-GOP-fears-McAdams-victory

A poll out of Alaska Thursday found Republican nominee Joe Miller fading quickly, as Democrat Scott McAdams slotted into a strong second place, just inches away from front-runner Lisa Murkowski. Given that Murkowski received a quarter of her support from Democrats afraid of electing Miller, it was clear that McAdams could win if those Democrats came home.

Murkowski's camp laughed off the results, claiming McAdams was a distant third. Yet we wake up to this (which Politico calls a "GAME CHANGE!)":

A high-level GOP source tells me that party leaders have essentially given up on Republican Senate candidate Joe Miller and are now banking on a victory by write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski as the best bet for Republicans to keep the Alaska Senate seat.

With Miller's campaign faltering, the source tells me that Republican leaders are now worried that Democrat Scott McAdams has a shot of winning and that Murkowski may be the only way to stop him

The nightmare scenario for Republicans is that McAdams comes in second on Election Day, trailing "write-in candidate." Those write-in votes won't be counted unless there are more write-in votes than there are votes for any candidate on the ballot. Once the write-in votes are counted, however, some of them will inevitably be disqualified (illegible writing, wrong name, etc.). And a small number will be for candidates other than Murkowski. If enough are tossed out, second place McAdams would be the winner.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has been forced to spend precious resources in Alaska. But take a look at the latest ad running in Alaska: It spends 25 seconds attacking Democrat McAdams and less than five seconds mentioning Joe Miller.


If Murkowski wins, it'll be because 1) Democrats stick with her out of fear, or 2) because Miller looses enough support (a la the Colorado governor's race) to boost Murkowski over McAdams. If it's the latter, there's little we can do about it. Alaska is a Republican state in a Republican year. But it would really suck if it was the former.

Murkowski has been a reliable GOP vote for the last six years, and nothing would change that. Pretending that she'd be somehow better than Miller is wishful thinking.

[hlthe2b]

1. I hope the drapes Miller ordered for his office and new home in DC

are refundable. ;) Schadenfruede that his arrogance has seemingly taken him down..

[Historic NY]

2. Maybe the Paper Towel Man will shave after Nov. 2nd.

[cascadiance]

3. I hope they aren't! I'd like to see him get stuck with the bill!

[Blue_In_AK]

4. The RSCC ads running here against McAdams

are hysterically funny, boilerplate fear-mongering, scary music and all, that have nothing to do with Scott's stands on anything -- and anyone who has heard him in a debate or interview or read his positions in the newspaper knows it. We saw one last night, and my husband and I both almost fell out of our chairs laughing. The ads seem to be directed at someone (an incumbent?) who has already voted on all those spooky, terrible Democratic bills, when, of course, Scott hasn't been anywhere near DC to cast such votes.

They are desperate as Scott continues to climb in the polls. Lisa has taken a hit, also, as the Division of Elections (with the concurrence of our Supreme Court) has "bent" the rules to allow write-in lists within the polling stations and even to allow poll workers to assist voters with spelling, both moves which have been strictly forbidden in past elections. This has angered people on both the left and right who think that the rules shouldn't be changed a week before the election. The Supreme Court ruling has been appealed to the US District Court by several teabaggers.

With all of this, the Democrats and Scott are staying above the fray and looking very reasonable and moderate in comparison.

[Buns_of_Fire]

5. And now the Miller/Mooseburger crowd is going "scorched earth" against Murkowski...

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- The number of write-in candidates for Alaska's U.S. Senate seat has swelled to about 160 amid an effort by conservatives to target the write-in candidacy of GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, and it could still grow as officials process filers' paperwork.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102904047.html

In a campaign where a write-in candidate was ahead in some polls, the entire write-in scenario has been thrown into controversy after an Anchorage talk show host went on the air and encouraged listeners to file as write-in candidates at the last minute, and allegedly offered prizes to listeners who did.

http://www.radio-info.com/news/alaskas-us-senate-race-gets-confusing-and-a-talk-host-is-suspended

If Little Joe can't have it, he and 1/2-Governor Mooseburger are going to make damned sure that nobody gets it!

Except McAdams, that is. I smile.