Pre-election Kerry and Obama poll shares of "unlikely voters" ('RV minus LV') closely matched their National Exit Poll share of "new" voters ('DNV').In
2004, final
pre-election polls** indicated that Kerry had a
57.7% share of RV deemed by the LVCM "unlikely to vote" ('
RV minus
LV').
The '04 12:22am
Prelim Nat'l Exit Poll showed Kerry had a
57% share of first-time voters and other RV who did not vote in 2000 ('
DNV').
In
2008, the final
pre-election polls indicated that Obama had a
73.3% share of the "unlikely to vote" ('
RV minus
LV').
The
vote-count-matched
Final Nat'l Exit Poll showed him with a
71% share of the first-time and other voters who did not vote in 2004 ('
DNV').
**NOTE:
1) The 2004 respectively-aggregated RV & LV-subsample final polls of CBS+Gallup+ABC+FOX+Pew give independent confirmation to the Preliminary exit poll of 2004 (Kerry, 51-48%, 1% MoE), not to the Final that was "forced" to match the recorded vote-count (Bush 51-48% and secret).
2) The 2006 unadjusted national exit poll additionally shows 48% of 6113 return-voters indicated "Bush" when polled for their vote in 2004 (Col 55•2,957).
Vote'04
Kerry
Bush
Other
2006 Unadj
47.33%
48.37%
4.30%
2004 Prelim
50.78%
48.22%
1%
2004 Final
48%
51%
1%
Matching near exactly, the 2006 unadjusted exit poll Bush share is yet another independent confirmation of the 2004 Preliminary NEP vote-share and, thereby, further indication the forced-match basis for the '04 Final NEP (51%-Bush) was bogus, i.e., the 2004 recorded vote count was fraudulent. With Bush share unwavering, the impossible 4.3% "Other" implies returning-Kerry voters near-wholly comprise the 3.3% share-difference with 2004, with relatively few, if any, identifying with the "winner". Any "GOP" 'bandwagon effect' in 2006 is insignificant, if not entirely absent.
3) For 2008, the equivalent unadjusted Preliminary national exit poll shares were unreleased by the consortium of news outlets Fox, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC. Two years post-election, the 51 unadjusted state and 3 un-forced preliminary-national exit polls remain suppressed. Could it have something to do with cover-up of Obama's TRUE margin of victory, since the 2004 and 2006 un-forced exit polls expose Bush's fraudulent victory? The projected turnout of registered voters is the ratio:
Turnout = LV poll sub-sample / RV poll full-sampleThe Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely Dem RVs to unlikely Dem and GOP RVs.
Dem share = Dem / (Dem + GOP )In 1988, 11 million votes were
uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million; in 2006, 3 million.
In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote count shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters
did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was
underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (
see 2004 Final Pre-election Polls).
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