Will Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown be re-elected in 2012?

[Pryderi]

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. My brother...

...a registered Democrat, voted for him in the special election. Apparently because he's a guy, and has a truck, and Brown's a guy, and has a truck, and Brown's opponent isn't a guy, and didn't have a truck.

That's the electorate we're working with, folks.

[AlinPA]

2. Exactly.

[sasha031]

7. I know, this from a liberal state

[bluestate10]

9. I live in Massachusetts.

Martha Coakley ran an awful campaign. Democrats would have won had Steve Paglialuca won the primary. Coakley refused to get out and press flesh, while Brown was out and about. Coakley had a horrible performance in the only debate. Scott Brown did not win the race as much as democrats gave the race away with their selection of general election candidate. I voted for Pags in the primary, but when he lost, I contributed money to and voted for Coakley. I developed a sense of desperation when Brown representatives were calling my home several time per day, while not one call came in for weeks from Coakley. To give you a sense of how disorganized and lethargic Coakley's campaign was, I got a call the day before the election at noontime, heavy snow was dropping, the call was to ask me to attend a rally for Coakely that was 20 miles away at 2pm, I did not get one single call from Coakley's campaign prior to that call, I got around 50-60 from Brown's people, answered none and deleted all of them. Even with her incompetent campaign, Coakley lost by only around 2%.

Fast forward 9 1/2 months. Our democratic Governor, who had favorable numbers at 33% during the summer and who faced a much more formidable challenger than Brown, won reelection by 6 1/2 percentage points. Independents that voted for Brown earlier came back to help reelect the Governor. There was a third and fourth candidate in the race, polls showed that had voters abandoned the most significant of those candidates, his votes would have split evenly between Governor Patrick and his republican challenger, Charles Baker III, so even there Patrick would have prevailed. A much more troubling issue leading up to the election was the behavior of the Green Party candidate potential voters, 1.5% said that they would absolutely not vote for the democratic Governor, even after Jill Stein, their candidate, had stood for the democratic nomination and failed to get the 15% delegate vote count needed to get her on the democratic primary ballot. Stein ended up getting 1.6% of over 2 million votes. Had independents not come over and loyal democrats held their ground, a very good and forward looking democratic governor would have lost his reelection bid.

How does the November vote pertain to Brown? Leading up to the election, a lot of people posting on newspaper blogs that had voted for Brown felt betrayed. That dynamic is what possibly pushed the democratic governor to such a comfortable victory margin, after polls leading into election day showed a dead-heat. Independents got into the voting booth, thought about their vote for Brown and how that betrayed them and decided not to take a chance on Charles Baker, those people went for Governor Patrick.

The Governor ran an aggressive campaign, even as he governed, he criss crossed the state hitting every city and town. His top campaign staffers, Ashbury and Reuben ran a tight campaign that kept track of money, votes, foot soldiers. There were many biblical sized rallies. When Baker's campaign punched, the Patrick campaign parried then counter punched. The Patrick reelection campaign should be a model of how to run a campaign. Ashbury seems to be fairly young, but she ran a technologically sophisticated campaign that hit all social media, papers and got the governor before both business people and before roof raising rallies. Reuben was a quieter force, but no less of a force. Any democrat that wants to mount a federal campaign would be well served to have one or both of those two and their staffs on-board.

Governor Patrick this week promised to do everything in his power to defeat Scott Brown in 2012. The Massachusetts economy is recovering well ahead of the nation's economy. 2012 is on track to arrive with the Commonwealth growing at a rapid pace. Brown will face a dangerous adversary in Patrick, Patrick has said he has no plan to run, but will recruit a tough, hard-nosed, democrat that will out campaign and out work Brown. Scott Brown will also face his senatorial record and the independents that trusted him ten months ago, but trusted Governor Patrick more last month.

[KamaAina]

10. Capuano would've gotten it done, too

but the DLC heavy hitters, up to and including Bill Clinton, gave their all to make sure the potted plant won the primary. :eyes:

[Davis_X_Machina]

11. Does Capuano have a truck? Because...

...if he doesn't, he's toast.

[bluestate10]

13. Brown's truck won't help, neither will his barn jacket.

Brown voting with Mitch McConnell and the likes of Jeff Sessions on every vote that is important to Massachusetts residents will sink him. In january Brown ran as an unknown that got big funding, made cute commercials and defined what he was while his democratic opponent literally watched that unfold. In 2012, Brown will face a tough democrat who will hold him accountable for every single one of Brown's votes. Given the way Brown is voting, I like the democrat's chances as long as that person runs a well oiled, hard hitting campaign. Brown's greatest gift was to get Coakley as an opponent, he won't be lucky in 2012.

[Davis_X_Machina]

16. I'll take Brown, and the points.

He'll cover the spread, even if he doesn't win outright. Hundreds of hours of free campaign advertising-in-kind on Boston sports radio is mighty hard to overcome.

That's what sank Coakley.

[bluestate10]

19. Brown's senatorial voting record will be an issue in Massachusetts.

I live in the state and talk to other every day people. Brown is not as strong as you make him out to be. Talk radio is meaningless, talk radio was rabid for Frank's challenger and Frank steamrolled that candidate.

[Davis_X_Machina]

21. Not talk radio..

....sports talk radio. Which is 'neutral', and listened to by people who never listen to talk talk radio, like the guys I work with. And it has the ability to amplify male turnout, and shrink the advantage the Dems usually have from the gender gap by three or four points, which may be enough.

[Graybeard]

3. Hopefully next time he won't be running against a potted plant.

[RZM]

4. There should be another option

'No, the Tea Party will primary him.'

I don't know if it would be successful, but they might try.

[WolverineDG]

5. If the Dems sit back & do nothing on the presumption that they'll win

like they did the last time, yes.

dg

[bluestate10]

15. Democrats were urging Coakley to run an aggressive retail campaign.

She ignored that, sitting inside making lame jokes while Brown went out into freezing cold to shake hands and talk up voters. I almost cried from despair as my answering took call after call from the Brown campaign and not one from Coakley's campaign. By the way, Brown's old state senate seat went to a democrat in November and his best buddy in the state senate was defeated in the 10th congressional district race, the region was Brown country during the January vote.

[WolverineDG]

24. Which proves you've got to get out there & work for it

Kennedy never sat back & just expected folks to vote for him.

dg

[sasha031]

6. we need a strong Democrat to run against him

tall, good looking, with a pickup truck.

[bluestate10]

17. I disagree.

Democrats need a democrat that is going to work his or her butt off and hold Brown accountable for every single vote that he casts against working people. Democrats can't allow another Martha Coakley to run against Brown.

[sasha031]

22. who can they run

Martha Coakley is a good person, but ram a terrible campaign.

It was horrible to watch this empty suit take Ted Kennedy's seat.

[bluestate10]

27. Democrats can run several people.

Steve Pagliauca (sp?), Jim McGovern, my favorite would be Lt. Gov, Tim Murray. Murray is a tough campaigner and is organized. Another potential choice is the Middlesex County Prosecutor, Leone, tough campaigner, straight shooter, gets high vote counts in the biggest, wealthiest county in the state. Governor Patrick knows the political landscape of the state and has proven himself to be a good campaigner, according to his own admission, he is out talking to potential democratic rivals to Brown. I seriously doubt that Patrick would help tag a person that can't win.

[frazzled]

8. Polls now say he beats potential Dems by 7 to 19 points

A new poll from Public Policy Polling in Massachusetts suggests that Republican Senator Scott Brown — who represents one of the Democrats’ few opportunities to play offense in a cycle in which they hold more than two-thirds of the Senate seats that will be contested in 2012 — is in relatively good shape for re-election. Against a series of potential Democratic opponents, he holds leads by margins ranging between 7 and 19 points, according to the survey.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/scott-brown-was-an-outlier-after-all/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Of course two years is a long time. I post this, however, to point out how useless these polls on DU are. As if anyone here has any idea of what will happen in a 2012 election in MA.

[bluestate10]

18. The same poll said that our governor would lose by as much as 15%.

If a good, hard fighting democratic candidate goes up against Brown and hold up Brown's senatorial record, Brown will be defeated. Brown is in a pickle, if he legislates in a way that makes him more moderate, he will face a tea party challenge and may not make it out of his primary. If he continues to vote mostly with Mitch McConnell and Jeff Sessions, with an occasional vote for sanity, Brown will be red meat for a good democratic candidate.

[frazzled]

25. Back in January, when Patrick's approval rate was 7%

And they still had him up, then -- just said that at that performance level, his candidacy was not sustainable.


That is why we need to understand that a year -- even a month -- is an eternity in politics. Two years is infinity.

PPP is considered one of the most accurate swing state pollers. DU is not a prognosticator of anything. I mean, around here, people were certain John Edwards would be the Democratic candidate in 08, and as late as the day of the elections this year, people were still whooping that the Democrats were going to win the House. We're not very good pollsters at all.

[sasha031]

26. Brown gives himself allot of visitable, on Thanksgiving

he was in the Pine Street in serving people in need.

[bluestate10]

28. At the same time that he voted against unemployment benefits for 2 million+ americans, 60,000

of whom live in Massachusetts. So, Brown feeds a handful of homeless while putting 2 million+ on a path that could see hundreds of thousands formerly working people starve and see many kill themselves out of hopelessness. A solid democratic candidate would rip Scott Brown's photo-Op visit to the Pine Street Inn to shreds. I contributed money to the PSI before it invited Brown, I won't contribute a cent again, ever. I will increase contributions instead to The Greater Boston Food Bank.

[FarCenter]

12. Incumbents win

Money, influence, power.

[bluestate10]

20. I disagree.

Brown's situation is analogous to to that of Peter Torkinsen and Peter Blute, two republicans that were elected to the US House from Massachusetts in 1990. Two years later, both faced strong democrats and were swept out of office.

Massachusetts is a state with an increasingly well educated population. With it's emphasis on Life Science research and business startups, education and clean energy, Massachusetts is not a ripe grounds for continued reelection of a conservative republican of Brown's stripe.

I am looking forward to an aggressive, hardworking democrat matching up against Brown. Democrats should take back Brown's seat at a minimum. A more meaningful plum would be defeat of Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, he came close last election.

[FarCenter]

29. 92 was a Democratic year, with Clinton at the head of the ticket

Defeating Brown in 2012 will not be easy, since Obama is toast if the economy doesn't improve substantially by then.

[Initech]

14. I really hope the tea party fad dies out by then.

The republicans screwed us over on taxes already - their primary running platform.

[Octafish]

23. A REAL Democrat will beat the living daylights out of him or whoever the Teabaggers put up.

Real Democrats win. The reason? They tell the TRUTH about the pukes. And Real Democrats do what it takes to get the job done once in office.

[pipi_k]

30. Political prognostication...nothing more than a parlor game at this point

It all depends on what he does (or doesn't do) between now and 2012, and who's running against him.