The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (sooner than we think)

[earcandle]

Source: Truth Out

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

Sunday 05 December 2010

by: Alfred W. McCoy | TomDispatch | Op-Ed

A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don’t bet on it. The demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines. If Washington is dreaming of 2040 or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that in 2025, just 15 years from now, it could all be over except for the shouting.

Despite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. So delicate is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad, empires regularly unravel with unholy speed: just a year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britain, and, in all likelihood, 22 years for the United States, counting from the crucial year 2003.

Future historians are likely to identify the Bush administration’s rash invasion of Iraq in that year as the start of America's downfall. However, instead of the bloodshed that marked the end of so many past empires, with cities burning and civilians slaughtered, this twenty-first century imperial collapse could come relatively quietly through the invisible tendrils of economic collapse or cyberwarfare.

http://www.truth-out.org/the-decline-and-fall-american-empire65700

Read more: http://www.truth-out.org/the-decline-and-fall-american-empire65700

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planning to retire around 2025.. better make some plans

[polichick]

1. I'm starting to think, the sooner the better - that's what it will take for...

...sleeping Americans to wake the fuck up.

[KansDem]

2. Hey! I went out to the lobby for some popcorn! What happened?

:sarcasm:

Somebody has got to come out of this...alive. But who? :shrug:

[Joe Bacon]

3. Peak Oil will be the downfall of us.

America's downfall actually began with the first oil embargo in October 1973. Look at the econometric data and you'll see that is the point in time where middle class income began to fall, and it's never recovered.

[Javaman]

16. Yup.

Those of us who are paying attention have known this for a while.

But while other poo poo this concept, oil is creeping back up.

Once it hits 150 a barrel for real rather than speculation, the slope becomes that much more steep.

I posted a comment last week about how the saudi's keep moving the goal post regarding "what is an acceptable price" for oil. No one responded. Eye blinders are selling out.

The saudi's went on record as saying that they are now okay with $100 oil and that they don't need to raise output, when just earlier this year, they were okay with $80 a barrel and that they needed to raise out put.

I can only pull one thing from that: their output has peaked.

World demand is still going up. Oil output is leveling off.

we are at plateau.

I read this half assed article today from out of Canada stating that the US domestic output had it's highest output of oil ever! LOL The water carrying writer went on to state that he thinks the US could be off middle eastern oil soon!

Funny how the author fails to mention that Canada is the US's largest provider of oil. Nor does he even mention Mexico's largest field failing.

So much stupidity out there, so much half witted propaganda for those on the titanic hoping for a life boat.

[Hestia]

4. We'd all better be on the same page as to whatever "change" is going to come.

Nature abhors a vacuum and something will come forth, it may or may not be to our liking. We need a clear vision as to where we will be in 15 years if we do not want some other country coming and invading us and taking us over.

What is the end goal? What do we want? It's not as simple as saying "I want change" it needs to be "I want change in the financial system of this country & globe for the betterment of all", "I want change in voting system for the betterment of all", "I want change in how we treat those lesser than we for the betterment of all" and so on and so forth. You Have to be specific when asking for these things. I wanna isn't the way to do it. It's why Obama hasn't really worked out so well for us - we asked for change and we got it, we just didn't all ask for the same change, nor has it been what we "thought" we were asking for. "For the Betterment of All" must be included in any thoughts of the future, for we are all in this together.

Edited for clarity

[Javaman]

17. If there is one thing I have learned it is this: the US no longer does long term planning.

we did once upon a time, but no longer. It's grab all I can get now and fuck you all!

I think Iraq's oil fields and Afghanistan's "newly discovered" oil field is proof of that.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Measuring the beginning and end of past empires is tricky

For that matter, choosing 2003 as the beginning of the end for US dominance is also tricky.

After the signing of the Treaty of Paris, French observers shouted gleefully that the British Empire had begun its collapse and British dominance was over. Clearly, that was very premature.

That 2025 estimate could turn out to be right, but it's all guesswork until it's all over.

[sofa king]

10. Yeah, why pick 2003 when 2000 killed American democracy forever?

Why blame an event when the evil people who caused the event slipped in after an attempted coup (impeachment), followed by an election theft?

[DavidDvorkin]

13. Yep. Future historians might see that SC decision as the beginning of the end.

[Javaman]

20. I agree...

I also believe our failed foreign policy that started during the Cold War will also be seen as a contributing factor. A factor which continues today.

[Downwinder]

6. Good timing, I'll be around to see it.

Still think it will be sooner.

[defendandprotect]

7. k/r

[blackbart99]

8. Buy guns now before you can't do it anymore.

You may need them when everything starts falling apart.

[walldude]

19. You know I have never owned a gun in my life

and never considered it, but now I am thinking it might be a good idea.

[fatbuckel]

9. We`re circling the drain.

[JamesDean]

11. Real Sad

Sometimes I wonder where I am.
Reading some post here I ask myself if I haven't been transported to some other political blog. Some sound as if they are cheer-leading the demise of our country? I know Obama and many of us chose to stay involved, and we are about keeping the good alive, and changing the bad.
Buy guns? Who is this person? Where is this, the Twilight Zone? Let's not forget who we are.
Do you read your post? I am disappointed because I thought we were about solutions even if we differ at times on opinion and direction.
Even so, our direction should never be "down".
I believe this is the greatest country ever. I believe just as I have built a small business from nothing, that we as Americans will overcome the differences between us and learn to live together. I believe that America and Americans like us, will lead the world into a brighter future with clean energy and progressive ideas that lead to better institutions.
I believe in myself, and I believe in you, and I refuse to let difficulties along the way prevent me from arriving at my destination.
Obama said this would not be easy.

[rayofreason]

12. Not LBN...

...And pretty weak as well.

All our problems are minor compared to others:

1. Our debt and deficit, while bad and a huge long-term threat, are not as bad as many in the Euro zone.

2. Many places awash with money, like the Arab world, are also in the grips of a culture that strongly inhibits the participation of women in the economy or the functioning of open inquiry. Just Google "Jesus Seminar" and imagine the reaction to a similar "Mohammed Seminar."

3. We are not completely shot through with corruption, like Russia, China, and any autocratic country except Singapore.

4. We are not undergoing a demographic collapse on a par with the Black Death, unlike Japan, many countries in Europe, China, and (in just a few years) Iran.

Want to really know what will happen with China? Here is a harbinger.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8182605/Chinas-credit-bubble-on-borrowed-time-as-inflation-bites.html

They are more screwed than you can know. And that is bad new for everybody. Including for those who predict the end of US preeminence.

[NickB79]

14. All the fears that China will crush us are overblown, IMO

The scenarios presented in this article about China's rise and America's fall makes the assumption that China's economy will continue to rapidly expand as it has for the past few decades. This is pretty much impossible at this point. China's demand for energy and raw materials is already straining global supply chains as they import massive amounts of oil, coal, steel, etc. As we pass Peak Oil (and a decade or so later, Peak Coal), their access to cheap energy will be cut short. Even with their major expansions into renewables and nuclear today, they won't have nearly enough to replace their current energy demands, much less keep up with their economic growth.

That's not to say America will be fine, though. We'll be hurt just as badly, if not worse, by skyrocketing energy costs. We just have the consolation that we don't have to worry about being conquered by the Chinese military; they'll be too busy maintaining social order in their own country to worry about us.

[StarsInHerHair]

15. the prime reason: Made in China far too much, a decision the rich made

....."the Council cited “the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way, roughly from West to East".......

....."Under current projections, the United States will find itself in second place behind China (already the world's second largest economy) in economic output around 2026, and behind India by 2050. Similarly, Chinese innovation is on a trajectory toward world leadership in applied science and military technology sometime between 2020 and 2030, just as America's current supply of brilliant scientists and engineers retires, without adequate replacement by an ill-educated younger generation.".....

The Billionaire Boys Club wrecking our public education is also a prime factor.


...."in 2008, the U.S. National Intelligence Council admitted for the first time that America's global power was indeed on a declining trajectory"....

..."Already, Australia and Turkey, traditional U.S. military allies, are using their American-manufactured weapons for joint air and naval maneuvers with China.".....<-----First I've heard of this, holy hell!

[cbdo2007]

18. Good, I was wondering when today's "end of America" thread was going to be.

Looks like the same old BS reasons as everyone else's.