FYI

[gateley]

Associated Press - October 16, 2007 5:14 PM ET

BOSTON (AP) - Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden says he only needs a fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses to stay in the race.

That's a lowering of expectations slightly from six weeks ago, when he said he needed to at least tie for third.

The Delaware senator was on the steps of the Statehouse in Boston today, where he picked up endorsements from Massachusetts lawmakers including House Majority Leader John Rogers.

Biden says there's much more pressure on front-runners Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards to win Iowa and the New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary in January.

[youthere]

1. FWIW....

I believe Biden will do very well in Iowa. He is targeting the most likely caucus goers with his small informal meetings, and the people who attend them are talking about them. Our small weekly had two really positive writeups on the meet and greet he held in Tipton (I'll post a link next week-the website is a week behind the paper). I've been following the newspapers and even one of our right-leaning state papers regularly features positive articles and editorials on Biden. It's almost like a whispering campaign, but a positive one. A lot of Obama leaners (myself included) are checking out Biden because as impressive as Obama is, his "greenness" in foreign policy makes a lot of us really nervous considering some of the major worldwide issues our next leader is goingto have to adress, and Sen. Biden has that experience and then some.
I believe Biden is going to big the big surprise come caucus time. He's the dark horse I'm keeping a look out for. He's picking up a lot of momentum in Iowa. A third or even second place showing in Iowa will not surprise me in the least.

[gateley]

2. Thanks so much for your words of encouragement and 'behind the scenes'

observations!

I just voted in an on-line thing and I really had difficulty choosing my second and third choices. My hesitancy with Obama was just that - his "greenness". I trust his judgments but felt that he just needs to get some experience so he can become the NEXT president.

Again - thank you for your input! :hi:

[lyonn]

3. The caucus is difficult to understand

In 04 I watched it in amazement, probably on c-span. You could explain the details, but it seemed they would choose a candidate and then go to a designated room to be counted. People would try to convince others to come to their candidate, side, and then it would start all over again. Which tells me it is a very personal situation with other caucus goers. You are allowed to change your vote. That is why someone like Biden could surprise us with his meet and greets. He appears to appeal to the people. Edwards has this ability too it seems.

Thanks for your input. Being there is not like getting these stories 2nd hand. Have you gone to a caucus? What is your opinion?

[youthere]

4. Yes, I've caucused before...

and some of the larger precincts have caucuses like you describe. Other smaller caucuses mught be held in a church,or at a school, or even someone's living room (although they are trying to get away from that). The caucuses that I have attended you meet usually divide into groups according to the candidate you support and you are given opportunities to realign depending on the information and considerations you hear...and people often do. I caucused for Dean in 2004, and it was interesting to see the most vehement Gephart supporters switch to Edwards and some really dedicated Dean people switch to Edwards too. You never know what will be the tipping point for voters. Most caucus goers aren't firmly decided on one candidate though or if they are, they are still open to another candidate. A phrase you hear often around Iowa when caucus time rolls around is "I've pretty much decided who I'm supporting".
One thing that struck me most when I attended my first caucus (in 2000..had no idea who I was supporting and alligned with Gore) was how calm they were. I expected them to be like the floor of the NYSE for some reason. I don't know if its just the way Iowans are, or if other caucus states are the same, but it's actually very serious, and there isn't a lot of tolerance for drama, aggression or attempts at intimidation. It seems as though the more calmly a candidate's strengths are discussed the more likely the chance of realignment for that candidate.
I've been checking over Biden's schedule, and it would appear that he's holding a meet and greet in nearly every county in Iowa. If he can create and initial stir, and make a second lap to those counties...he could potentially sweep Iowa..even with his small coffer. Damn good strategy I'd say. In fact, it's almost exactly how Carter took Iowa. And even with a second, third in Iowa, his coffer gets a pump and on he goes.
The thing with the big rallies like Obama and Clinton hold, is that they draw a lot of people that are likely to vote in the GE, but a much smaller percentage of them are likely to caucus. For a lot of people going to one of these big rallies is exciting, and gets people pumped...but they don't learn enough about the candidate to motivate them to caucus for them.
Biden is on the right track, I believe, even if the current poll numbers don't show it.

[lyonn]

5. Great explanation "youthere"!!!

That is how the caucus appeared to me, no anger, just discussions. Interesting that you were there for Dean. Oh how badly I wanted him to win. Damn what happened? Why did people decide against him? Did they feel too much pressure from his campaign? Why do you think they went for Edwards as an option? A bigger question is why did they decide on Kerry? the media sure was no help. I was stomping around my house that night saying, "What the hell is happening".

Sorry, lots of questions. Sounds so interesting.

[youthere]

6. At my caucus...

I sat there stunned as I saw people defecting from Dean. It all came down to "who could beat Bush". They felt Kerry had the experience, and was stronger on foreign policy, and with him being a vet it would be a lock. ALSO it was really clear that the last "push" of the Kerry and Edwards campaign in the last two weeks before caucus really had an impact. I don't think most candidates fully understand that your average Iowa caucus attendee doesn't put it on the frontburner until the last couple of weeks. That's when they get REALLY serious about it. The Dean campaign had pretty much pulled out of Iowa by that time and was working New Hampshire....he was so far ahead in the polls, I guess they thought they felt they had Iowa in the bag...but with almost silence from the Dean campaign people were open and receptive to the Kerry and Edwards front.

[PatSeg]

7. It is fascinating to hear this from

people who were there. Any candidate who truly understands Iowa voters certainly has a better chance to carry the state.