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Possible explanation for the arrest of the two American "Spies"

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flamingdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 02:23 PM
Original message
Possible explanation for the arrest of the two American "Spies"
This is informed speculation from someone close to these matters. The two spies plus the Cuban five will possibly be traded for prisoners in Cuba. This might be a way to move things forward in terms of public consumption on both sides, face saving, etc. CANF has given the green light after all and those arrests don't add up unless they are part of a larger strategy.

Too optimistic?
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Bacchus39 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
1. highly unlikely n/t
s
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flamingdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. What is the least likely aspect?
Isn't this kind of strategy up Obama's alley? Common ground, working out compromises..
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Billy Burnett Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 04:02 PM
Response to Original message
3. The US gov would never reward US citizen/Cuban "spies" like that.
Let's wait and see what evidence is brought up against them. Media stories of them seeing Castro at a mass rally and mentioning that shopping carts might be a good method of document dropping really isn't evidence at all. That being said, evidence be damned, conviction is likely. The not-so-bright so called Miami 6 were convicted for signing (for money and gadgets) a fake oath to Osama bin Laden in a phony FBI sting set up.

This couple had plans to sail over and retire in Cuba. It would be their dream come true to send them to there.

Not going to happen.

Keeping US/Cuba relations at a standstill is 'good for business'.


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magbana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
4. I think your source is on target. Last night . . .
there was a panel discussion on Cuba here in DC and Jose Pertierra explained how easily a prisoner exchange could be worked out. He reminded the audience that there is a precedent for because of an exchange that took place between the US and Cuba in 1979. Here is an excerpt from Pertierra's article: "Gesture for Gesture: A Roadmap for Liberating the Cuban 5" which gives background. Pertierra suggests that the four US prisoners in Cuba were CIA agents.

NOTE: One of the panelists did not show up -- the right wing one -- because an "emergency" came up. Here is a short bio on him and you will see why he had good reason to think it might be wise to skip this event. Going up against Jose Pertierra, Wayne Smith, and Eugene Puryear would not have been fun for Tomas.

Tomas Bilbao is Executive Director of the Cuba Study Group. Prior to joining the CSG, Mr. Bilbao served as Director of Operations on the successful campaign of Mel Martinez for U.S. Senate. From 2001 to 2003, Mr. Bilbao served in the Administration of George W. Bush as Deputy Director of Operations at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and as Personal Aide to Secretary Mel Martinez.


excerpt:

"HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

There is historical precedent for a mutual release of prisoners on the basis of unilateral, but reciprocated, gestures. It is little known, but thanks to US government-declassified documents, we can now learn about the delicate negotiations that led to a mutual release of important prisoners thirty years ago.

In September of 1979, the United States unilaterally released four Puerto Rican nationalists, and ten days later Cuba reciprocated by releasing four United States citizens who were in prison in Cuba.2

It is curious to note that the phrase gesto-a-gesto that Raúl is now using to urge the release of the Cuban Five is the same one that his brother, Fidel, used in 1978, when he told US diplomats Robert Pastor and Peter Tarnoff,

I do not understand why you are so tough on the Puerto Ricans. The U.S. could make a gesture and release them, and then we would make another gesture—without any linkage—just a unilateral humanitarian gesture.3

US government documents confirm that discussions between the U.S. and Cuban governments occurred during 1978 and 1979 regarding an exchange of prisoners. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski said in a letter in 1979 to the Justice Department:

Castro and his representatives have said publicly and told us privately that, if we release the four Puerto Ricans, they will, after an appropriate interval, release the four United States citizens imprisoned in Cuba. . . . . while we should not accept nor even consider an exchange, the fact that a positive decision by the U.S. is likely to lead to a positive decision by Cuba to release U.S. citizens is a welcome prospect. 4

THE PRISONERS WHO WERE FREED

At the time of their release in 1979, the Puerto Ricans, Lolita Lebrón, Rafael Cancel Miranda, Irving Flores Rodríguez, and Oscar Collazo, had been in prison in the United States for over 24 years. The Americans who Cuba released ten days later, Lawrence Lunt, Juan Tur, Everett Jackson, and Claudio Rodriguez—had spent more than 10 years in Cuban prisons.

THE BRZEZINSKI AND PASTOR MEMOS

One of the most interesting of the declassified documents is a memorandum written by National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, in early 1979 to John R. Standish, Department of Justice Pardon Attorney. In the memo, Brzezinski recommends that the US government commute the sentences of the four Puerto Ricans.

The Obama Administration could well learn from the Brzezinski memo the benefits of a gesture-for-gesture negotiation that, if used now, could reap diplomatic benefits for both countries. In his memo to the Department of Justice, Brzenzinski pointed out that the continued imprisonment of the Puerto Ricans lends fuel to critics of US policy, and that commuting their sentences would be welcomed as a compassionate and humanitarian gesture. Brezenzinski goes on to argue that:

the release of these prisoners will remove from the agenda of the United nations, the Non-Aligned Movement, and other international fora, a propaganda issue which is used each year to criticize the U.S., and is increasingly used as an example of the inconsistency of our human rights policy.5

Robert Pastor makes a similar point in a memorandum dated September 26, 1978. After conducting a cost-benefit analysis of the situation, Pastor concludes:

I have come to believe that the risks of releasing (the Puerto Rican nationalists) unconditionally are minimal, while the benefits, as a humanitarian, compassionate gesture, are considerable. I also believe that the President would obtain considerable political benefit in Puerto Rico as there is widespread support for such a move there.6

http://www.periodico26.cu/english/giants/opinions/gesture040109.html
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flamingdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Great information. Then there was Raul's request of last year as well


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7790926.stm


Cuba seeks prisoner deal with US


Cuban President Raul Castro has suggested he would release political prisoners as a "gesture" with the US.

Speaking during a trip to Brazil, Mr Castro said: "Let's do gesture for gesture," essentially a call for the US to release five Cubans in its custody.

The five were convicted in 2001 for spying on Cuban exiles, but are considered heroes in Cuba.

US President-elect Barack Obama has said some restrictions on Cuba could be eased after he takes over in January.

Mr Obama has said that he would lift restrictions on family travel and remittances to Cuba, but maintain the US trade embargo to press for changes in the Communist-run country.

Cuba has survived more than four decades of US sanctions against the communist government led by Fidel Castro and, since February, by his brother Raul.

Prisoner exchange

The US has called on Cuba to release political prisoners. Cuba is thought to keep more than 200 dissidents behind bars on account of their political views.

Mr Castro, referring to those prisoners, said to reporters: "These prisoners you talk about - they want us to let them go? They should tell us tomorrow.

"We'll send them with their families and everything. Give us back our five heroes. That is a gesture on both parts."

In June a US appeal court upheld the convictions of the five Cubans, but said the sentences of three of them should be reconsidered.

Convicted in 2001, three were given life terms while the other two are spending 15 and 19 years in jail.

The men are considered national heroes in Cuba, where they figure prominently on billboards all over the country and are the subject of regular rallies and demonstrations.

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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-14-09 06:12 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. You got to see Wayne Smith? So envious! That's way better than seeing Otto Reich, or Frank Calzon.
Thanks for the background on the clown who was detained, and couldn't make it. It's no surprise. He wouldn't have been comfortable there, without his fellow social perverts.

Well, if you'd like to hear what Tomas has to say, anyway, try the Bilbao twitter:
http://twitter.com/TomasBilbao

Worked with Mel Martinez. Super. Mel Martinez did a heck of a job at H.U.D.

http://s3.amazonaws.com.nyud.net:8090/twitter_production/profile_images/137968923/Tomas_Bilbao_bigger.jpg http://i204.photobucket.com.nyud.net:8090/albums/bb42/deadlast01/melmartinez.jpg
Tomas, and Mel.

Thanks for the food for thought on a hypothetical prisoner exchange. Really appreciate it.
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