BlueStater
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:14 AM
Original message |
|
Truthfully, I haven't been following politics the last year or so last like I used to. I've been so disgusted with various things that all the passion has been sucked out of me. I keep hearing from various big mouths that 2010 will be a bad year for Democrats but is the GOP really in that much better shape? Here's the layout so far that I know of.
Most vulnerable Democratic senators: Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln
Most vulnerable Republican senators: Richard Burr
Are there any I missed? What vacant seats do we (or they) stand a good chance of picking up?
And I'm absolutely livid that we could possibly lose Massachusetts. How could we possibly fuck up so badly?!? How?!?
|
Clio the Leo
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:18 AM
Response to Original message |
|
.... if tomorrow night goes badly, next fall wont be as bad as it would have been. Better to let the teabaggers sneak up and steal one seat from us now than 20 seats in November.
|
wisteria
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
2. It would not be good at all inf Coakley did not win. Go Coakley. n/t |
golfguru
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
11. Exactly....it will mean better candidates will throw their hats in the ring |
|
for republiCONS in November, encouraged by results in Massachusetts.
Do NOT spare any effort for Martha if you live in MA.
|
PhilosopherKing
(228 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:40 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
5. Provided of course we re-energize |
Clio the Leo
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
|
.... which is why it happening now is the optimum time.
|
Ildem09
(472 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:29 AM
Response to Original message |
|
2-3 seats in the senate and about 15-25 in the house. thats the wall all the models are gaming out at this point
|
BP2
(406 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
4. This time last week, the models also said Martha was going to rub Brown-noser in his own crap. |
|
Let's hope your models are more accurate.
|
Ildem09
(472 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
6. we are going to loose seats |
|
its a matter of how many. the only time an incumbent party has won seats in an off year was in 36, 96,02 The Great Depression,Backlash from Newt Gingrich, and aftermath of 9/11. we are over exposed in the house with dems in districts with a CPI of R+10 we are over represented in the south and interior west.
|
murielm99
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:11 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
8. We need to look at our own state, too. |
|
Can we keep the governor's mansion? Which of the Democrats can beat Mark Kirk? It would be just as terrible to lose Obama's Senate seat as to lose Teddy Kennedy's seat.
|
Ildem09
(472 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
|
about Alexi, Hoffman plays more to my heart strings. and Quinn, if he can please the Emperor enough i think the machine can turn it out for him. Kirk Scares me though
|
murielm99
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:58 AM
Response to Reply #14 |
15. I like Hoffman more, too. |
|
But Alexi has the name recognition, and will probably win the primary.
I like Hynes best. But I think Quinn will take the primary. I don't think Quinn has shown much leadership.
Another big question is redistricting. We need to keep our majority to keep redistricting in Democratic hands. We have to keep the governorship, or a republican governor can veto the redistricting. We would then have to have hearings all over the state. We have the voting rights act here, and it affects how minorities are counted. We can't use the Iowa plan, just using a computer. Minority districts are redrawn first to comply with the voting rights act. And, we are only 35,000 people away from losing a Congressional District! (All this information comes from Cullerton. He just had a conference call with all the county chairmen about this issue. We need TURNOUT in these elections).
|
Ildem09
(472 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 02:00 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
|
Edited on Tue Jan-19-10 02:03 AM by Ildem09
the way redistricting works is both parties but their name in a hat and someone draws the card what ever party is pulled gets to do it. yeah weird I know, it's an old Illinois law that hasn't been repealed
*Edit: The Illinois-15th CD my home CD is most likely to get eliminated in the next round. David Gill is a great candidate though, he has a tough climb against Tim Johnson
|
murielm99
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Wed Jan-20-10 05:01 AM
Response to Reply #16 |
21. They only pull a party name out of the hat if the legislature |
|
reaches a stalemate. They often do. But we control both houses and the governorship at this time. The legislative deadline of 2011 could be reached this time, because the Democrats want to redraw the map. But would a new governor, if he is republican, sign the legislation? We need to keep that office.
Kirk is running for governor because he knows he might lose his district. I hope Kirk wins his primary. He made those remarks about shooting Quinn if he raises taxes. Now there is speculation that he is gay. He has baggage. He could be easy to beat.
|
Bucky
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
|
If you "loose" 20 seats, it just means you'll let them off their leashes, or throw them about like Zeus tosses thunderbolts.
|
golfguru
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:35 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
12. Are you my English teacher? n/t |
Bucky
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 02:11 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
18. Based on the fact that we've never met and I've never taught you anything. I'll say "yes" |
|
Seriously, please use English in the future.
|
Ildem09
(472 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:40 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
|
I didn't catch the Spelling error. I apologize. It's been a long day
|
liberalpragmatist
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 01:15 AM
Response to Original message |
9. It's not looking so good now |
|
Most of the current projections are 2-4 losses. Honestly, with Massachusetts close, losses in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Delaware - all of which seemed likely to stay Dem in the end - look a lot more possible. And frankly, Boxer in California may be in serious trouble.
2-4 losses only is still possible, but I'd say right now it looks more like 5-6, maybe 7-8.
|
Ildem09
(472 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
19. Illinois will end up a mixed bag i think |
|
It all depends on if the emperor decides to turn the machine to 110%
|
w4rma
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 02:01 AM
Response to Original message |
17. Obama got rid of his campaign team after he was elected and hired the losers he beat in the primary. |
|
We're toast with Rahm and all these former Bush administration appointees in place.
|
AlinPA
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Jan-19-10 09:42 AM
Response to Original message |
20. Specter in PA is questionable. Tied with Toomey now in polls, could be another |
|
close one like MA because of the teabagger energy and Specter being worn out. A lot of Democrtas don't trust him.
|
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Thu May 02nd 2024, 03:37 PM
Response to Original message |