TX-Gov: Medina Surge Dwindles, Perry Poised to Win Runoff

[ccharles000]

PPP (pdf) (2/19-21, likely voters, 2/4-7 in parentheses)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 40 (39)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 31 (28)
Debra Medina (R): 20 (24)
Undecided: 9 (10)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 52
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 35
Undecided: 13

Rick Perry (R-inc): 55
Debra Medina (R): 36
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±5.2%)

Bill White (D): 59 (49)
Farouk Shami (D): 12 (19)
Undecided: 18 (24)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

PPP has another look at the primary fields in the Texas governor's race, with election day fast-approaching on March 2. Most notably, they find that Debra Medina's surge, which they were the first to show a few weeks ago, seems to have peaked and eased off. A lot of that, one would expect, is probably a result of her 9/11 truther inclinations having come out via a sandbagging from Glenn Beck, of all places. There's a corresponding gain for Kay Bailey Hutchison, suggesting that there was a chunk of not-voting-for-Perry-under-any-circumstances voters who liked Medina's freshness but switched to the insidery KBH once Medina's kookiness came to the surface. Although the race looks to be headed to a runoff anyway, Rick Perry looks poised to win against either opponent. (Chris Cillizza has a thoughtful piece today on what went wrong with the once-promising KBH campaign. Shorter version: KBH's lack of an overriding reason to fire Perry (other than "it's my turn") and her focus on genteel general election themes in a primary with a red-meat-hungry base.)

Waiting in the wings for Perry is Democratic former Houston mayor Bill White, who looks to be building support (as Farouk Shami's novelty wears off). White is clearly gearing up for an expensive general, and has been going nuts on the fundraising front, just releasing numbers indicating that he raised $2.2 million in the most recent reporting period (ending Feb. 20), leaving him with $5.4 million CoH.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6450/txgov-medina-surge-dwindles-perry-poised-to-win-runoff

[tanyev]

1. I've seen two different stories on WFAA about how the Perry campaign

should be really pleased with the new numbers, he's out in the lead, yadda, yadda, yadda. Not a word that he's a two term incumbent who apparently can't win his own party's primary without a runoff.

[WI_DEM]

2. I think Dems have a fair shot at winning the TX governorship.