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Well, the corporate media might not be saying too much about it of course, but there is some real significance to the first post-Health Care Law congressional race, a special election won last evening by the Democrat who crushed the Republican challenger. Yes, it is a 2-1 blue district in South Florida, but there was heavy turnout for a special, and this wasn't even close. The district also has a very sizeable elderly population. The R was a contractor-by-trade "outsider" whose platform centered on how awful Washington is, how awful the economy is, and how terrible the new health law is. Like Massachusetts, perfect storm clouds for an R upset, right? Wrong. The Dem embraced the new health law, argued its merits, and campaigned well. The folks came out heavy and smacked down the R good and hard. (Massachusetts, the bluest state, was mainly about a significant frustration/protest vote and a smart, nice Dem candidate who sadly ran a very crappy campaign. Had Mike Capuano been the candidate, I think Brown would still be driving around his Mass. hometown every day in his pickup truck.)
Come November, we will probably have seen seven straight months of jobs growth. Yes, it will be a few more years before we replace the millions of jobs lost, but people will sense we're headed in the right direction. Positives of the health law will be kicking in, and folks will see that, no, the world isn't exploding because we passed the health law. There will be another smart new US Supreme Court pick, a new nukes treaty, more troops home from Iraq, and possibly new banking rules, a new energy bill, more jobs legislation, and immigration reform (an issue the GOP wants to avoid like the plague as they don't want to further erode their standing with Hispanic Americans).
The TeaHater arm of the GOP will continue to expose themselves as the angry, minimally-educated extremists that they are, and the GOP will have a nice little civil war trying to decide how tight they want to get with this part of their base. (The TeaHaters are no "new movement." They are simply base Republicans who are angry that Obama is the President and that the national demographics are changing in a way they can't handle. Rather than embracing and integrating with the change, they are behaving like bratty, nasty, spoiled children who can't stand that there are new players in the game and they no longer get to make all the rules.)
The GOP has a chairman who spends money like a drunken sailor, and leadership members so empty of any moral compass they have spent some of that money on everything from cash-burning junkets to bondage clubs.
The GOP runs a very serious risk if it can't get over its hissy fit and start cooperating in Congress. (Way to go GOP. You are going to run on "NO" and NOTHING and "REPEAL HEALTHCARE!" Gee, nice plan. Didn't work out too well for in Florida though did it.)
The Dems will be well-financed and busily working the ground come fall. They will have good candidates, and they will run hard-fought campaigns. They will have a record of accomplishment, and positive economic winds will be at their backs. Nonetheless, historical trends do tend toward opposition party gains in the midterms, and some will probably occur. And there will be some remaining frustration and anger at Washington. No doubt. But if the GOP has any grand ideas of re-taking Congress, just as they thought they'd upset the Dems in South Florida last evening, they had ought to think again. I'm ready to lay a bet on it. Any takers?
Thanks For Reading
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