It appears Blanche Lincoln took Nate Silver's advice on her HCR position.

[ClarkUSA]

As many of you know, Nate Silver is a political statistical analyst of legendary status and this is what he had to say about Blanche Lincoln on Nov. 22, 2009 regarding her best position to take on HCR, given that she was facing a very tough re-election campaign in a "deeply red" state.

On the one hand, the measure has become unpopular in her state, and Arkansas -- which was not so long ago considered a swing state, has since become deeply red: one of just a handful of states where Republicans actually gained ground between 2004 and 2008. On the other hand, opposing the measure would depress her base, virtually ensure a primary challenge, perhaps cost her plum committee assignments in the Democratic caucus, and create a toxic environment for the Democrats nationally. It really is a no-win situation...

If I were Blanche's Lincoln's Chief of Staff, my advice to her would be as follows:

1. Vote for cloture.
2. Vote against the bill itself.
3. Articulate this position clearly.
4. And then Shut The Hell Up.

... the path of least resistance would seem to be committing to voting for cloture, so that the Democratic base, your colleagues in the Senate, and the national media don't go nuclear on you -- but against the underlying bill, which is unpopular in your state.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/advice-to-blanche-lincoln-speak-softly.html

During his March 14, 2010 press conference:

Gibbs said the White House is supporting Lincoln, "as an incumbent senator."

Today, Gibbs went farther, defending Lincoln's right to take stances that have angered the left.

"The president supports senator Lincoln and understands even as he's the head of the Democratic party he won't agree with every Democrat on every issue," Gibbs said. " believes that Sen. Lincoln is serving her state well and believes she should be returned for an additional term."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/03/obama-and-blanche-lincoln-agree-to-disagree-white-house-says.php

Nate Silver is right. This really is a "no-win situation" as he currently estimates the Arkansas Senate seat has a 92% chance of going to the Republican challenger, no matter who wins the Democratic primary.

:(

[DrToast]

1. She voted for the bill

She voted against the reconciliation package.

[AlinPA]

2. Blanche Lincoln acts like a rattlesnake. nt

[freddie mertz]

3. I certainly hope it is a "no win" situation...

For Blanche Lincoln, anyway.

Go to this link and donate to Halter:

http://billhalter.com/

[ClarkUSA]

4. Do you really think Halter would have voted any differently had he been the Senator from Arkansas?

I don't. Not when Arkansas is "deeply red".

Halter is not exactly a dyed-in-the-wool progressive. He worked under former DLC chairman President Clinton, after all.

Bill Halter is NOT A True Progressive
by ProgressiveArkDemocrat

In the General Election in 2006, Bill Halter supported a gay parent foster ban and opposed marriage equality.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/3/3/842635/-Bill-Halter-is-NOT-A-True-Progressive

[freddie mertz]

7. Don't know, but I am willing to give him a chance.nt.

[ClarkUSA]

12. You're willing to give a homophobic "new face" who supported a gay parent foster ban "a chance"?

Hmm... I guess your past statements stridently championing LGBT rights weren't very indicative of your voting preferences.

:sarcasm:

I wonder what you and other 24/7 Obama critics would say if the President had supported a gay parent foster ban as a Senator?

But time and again you've loudly decried President Obama for not repealing DADT, agreeing with those here who say he is anti-LGBT rights.

Hypocrisy abounds.

[Cha]

5. 'Cause that Red mind set is

working out so well for them?

[ClarkUSA]

6. Really. What happened in Arkansas that it turned from a reliable swing state to "deeply red"?

The current governor is Democratic but I doubt that will last long if Beebe steps down. Halter will never win the governorship if he ran.

[Cha]

8. My guess is Lies and Brainwashing..

and the repubs take over which ultimately ends in disaster.

[Rageneau]

9. Who SAYS Arkansas has turned deeply "red?"

The only evidence I've seen that can make people deduce that Arkansas has become more Republican since 2004 is the results of the 2008 election, when Arkansas went for McCain. But speaking as an Arkansan, I believe there was another factor behind this "reddening" that people outside Arkansas are overlooking. Many Arkansans, including me, were hoping HRC would be our nominee and many Arkansans, including me, were appalled at the treatment Hillary was given by the party as a whole and the corrupt media. She was insulted and second-guessed at every turn. A lot of that insulting went on right here at DU.

David Axelrod suggesting the Clintons were "racists" pissed off some Democratic Arkansas voters enough that they decided they would not support Obama in the general election. I was almost one of those people, but I just couldn't stay home on election day.

I still believe that Hillary would have carried this state had she been the nominee. That same 2008 election, Arkansas elected a Democratic Governor, Lt. Governor, Sec of State and AG, also re-elected a Democratic senator and chose Democrats to fill three of our four Congressional seats. That's pretty damned Blue, if you ask me.

[freddie mertz]

10. Interesting insight.

That primary was so terribly nasty, I can understand why there were some people who got turned off.

[ClarkUSA]

11. Nate Silver said so.

If you think it's "pretty damned Blue" then why is Lincoln in so much trouble?

[Radical Activist]

13. Because she pursued the DLC strategy

of going left on social issues but right on economic issues. It's just the opposite of what works best in a economic populist, socially conservative state like Arkansas. People see that Lincoln sold out a long time ago and defeating her is the best way to send a message to other Senators that its not safe to do the same.

[ClarkUSA]

15. Every AR Democrat does. DLC founder and DLC chairman Gov. Bill Clinton set the gold standard...

... so I don't think that's quite it.


I'm inclined to believe the rise of activist evangelical fundamentalism has something to do with it. I have a good liberal friend whose sister lives in Hot Springs who became very politically active on behalf of Republican Party after she became a born-again evangelical Christian after settling down there. My friend says Hot Springs is a hotbed of rabid wing nuts who spend most of their time plotting the demise of the Democratic Party.

[Radical Activist]

16. No. Clinton ran as an ecnomic populist.

Even in '92 he did. The hard move to the right only came after the election and it was never a big winner politically.

Focusing on progressive-populist economic issues has always been the best way to combat the racist demagogues and now the evangelicals. Lincoln can't do that because her record shows that she's a corporate lobbyist.

[ClarkUSA]

17. That was and is still a facet of the DLC strategy, albeit the method differs with the times.

<<Focusing on progressive-populist economic issues has always been the best way to combat the racist demagogues and now the evangelicals.>>

I agree. DLC candidates like Heath Ledger and other first-term Blue Dogs who voted against HCR are using this approach in varying degrees because as you said, it's a winner. Take a look at his webpage:

"Citing his efforts to balance the budget, expand health care access to children, and develop a comprehensive energy program that includes “innovation, conservation, and research and development in sustainable fuels and other 21st Century technologies,'' the Citizen-Times said Heath has “earned the right to represent WNC again.”

http://www.heathshuler.com/release_details.asp?id=17

<<Lincoln can't do that because her record shows that she's a corporate lobbyist.>>

She can't do it credibly, I agree, although she is trying now. I'll bet she wishes she had the flair for the dramatic that lobbyist-friendly DLC Hillary had in her brief "Rosie the Riveter" phase.

[Radical Activist]

19. Lincoln is experiencing the fatal flaw of the DLC strategy.

There's a point when sounding populist and building a personality cult isn't enough when you don't back it up with something. Having a corporate friendly DLC voting record has caught up with her just like it caught up with the Clintons in 2008 when people were given a credible alternative.

If Lincoln had a more liberal voting record on economic issues, as her ads portray her as having, she would be coasting to re-election.

[Radical Activist]

14. And because she doesn't show convinction.

People will vote for someone who stands by their convictions, even if they often disagree. Voters see that Lincoln doesn't. Pollsters like Nate Silver have a hard time grasping that concept. People vote based on the person, and not based on how one issue was polling six months ago.

[ClarkUSA]

18. Nate Silver isn't a pollster. He's a prognosticator w/the best success rate of anybody in the U.S.

There's no doubt she has a credibility problem. I don't disagree with you that that is probably a part of her problem, but there are plenty of incumbent politicians who share that quality from both parties who get re-elected time and again. I think that there are also other factors at work in Arkansas that is going to result in Democrats losing this Senate seat this year.