The GOP's special failure - - all the evidence pointing to monster GOP house gains was contradicted

[jefferson_dem]

The GOP's special failure

All the evidence pointing to monster Republican House gains this fall—the Scott Brown upset win in Massachusetts, the scary polling numbers in once-safely Democratic districts, the ever-rising number of Democratic seats thought to be in jeopardy—was contradicted Tuesday.

In the only House race that really mattered to both parties—the special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District—Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition.

Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat—as it turned out, it wasn’t really that close—the outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy and offers comfort to a Democratic Party that is desperately in search of a glimmer of hope.

The district itself couldn’t have been more primed for a Republican victory. According to one recent poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the 12th was a dismal 35 percent, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. His health care plan was equally unpopular—just 30 percent of those polled supported it, while 58 percent were in opposition.

<SNIP>

“The lesson will be define the choice very early,” said DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen in an interview. “This is not a referendum on how you feel about the general direction of the country, it’s a choice about how we move forward. And you have to define the differences on key policy issues.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37473.html#ixzz0oNEavS6t

[Jennicut]

1. Or maybe all politics is local...at least to a certain extent.

The voters in PA-12 felt comfortable with Critz as he worked for Murtha.

[karynnj]

2. I agree - and I think this is always a component

There are times when the playing field is tilted with one party or the other seeming to fit the mood better though. What it might mean is the country is not buying the media's obsession with the tea party.

[Kdillard]

3. I absolutely agree with all politics being local. Critz seemed to do a good job

And got the win.

[DFW]

4. Very true, but that's only the real reason Critz won

Odd as that may sound, the significance of the win might not be that Critz won for strictly local reasons,
but that the Republicans made such a big deal out of the race and how they were going to win it. They had
talked themselves into believing that the whole country would mirror the Mass. Senate race. Self-hypnosis
may let them sleep better at night, but it won't win many elections.

This race was a big deal because the Republicans made it one. It's their own fault now that it's a big
deal that they lost. What should have been a mouse's squeak became a thunder clap.

[Jennicut]

7. I agree. It was a race based on local issues and the replacement of a Rep that was well

liked and even loved by the people there. That Rethugs did not get that Critz could tap into that is their mistake. They also look foolish for making it a referendum on Obama. It was not really about him. Now their "momentum" has a black spot on it.

[TheCowsCameHome]

5. They'll ride this Scott Brown pony full speed into the ground.

guaranteed.

[Cha]

18. And, off the proverbial

cliff.

[happyslug]

6. I live in the 12th, and we want someone like Murtha

Murtha brought home a lot of Government money AND used in position to both help businesses that moved into his district AND to encourage businesses to moved into his district. The "Corruption" accusations against Murtha were based on incidents where it as clear they was NO personal gain by Murtha, but he allegedly demanded someone to help someone in his district, or that a company who wanted his help had to do something in his District.

Please note Arabspam is the exception, but Murtha was NEVER prosecuted for what he did for the simple fact any such prosecution would have to address the fact that Murtha did what he had been trained to do as a Marine Officer if a Arab ever offered him a bribe. In Arabic culture it is an insult to refuse any gift, even an illegal bribe, thus the best way to decline the bribe is to do as Murtha did, don't decline but say some other "gift" that would be legal would be better (Or decline the bribe on the grounds it is NOT the right time to exchange the bribe). In Murtha's case he not only ask to delay accepting the bribe he had also mentioned investments in his district as an alternative. Since he did NOT take the money, but followed as he had been trained, the Prosecution had a problem, technically Murtha broke US law when he did NOT clearly decline the offer of a bribe, but the Pentagon has been telling is officers NOT to do that for over 50 years when it comes to "Arabs". Do we jail service men for doing as we trained them to do when it comes to dealing with people of different cultures, when what we trained them to do in such situations is illegal under American law? Please note this was NOT a war-crimes situation but one of bribery only. Given the allegations against Murtha and his most likely defense (The whole Pentagon top brass, who had gone through similar training, would be saying what Murtha did is what they would have done if Arabs offered them a bribe) the prosecution of Murtha died for he had NEVER accepted the money AND his refusal, while more in the nature of "lets talk about this later" then rejection of the bribe, reflected US policy as to offers of bribes to US Military Officers.

Last comment, Critiz beat Burns, 53% to 44 % in a special election, which is generally viewed as bringing in a higher percentage of GOP voters then Democratic Voters.

Pa Official state reporting on the election:
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=35&OfficeID=11&DistrictID=12

Now, in Cambria and Somerset Counties, Burns actually polled less votes then Russell (Which is weird, Burns "lost" the primary votes in Russell in Somerset County, but Burns "Beat" Critz for the special election in the same county). Just a comment on Burn's strengths and weaknesses in the 12th.

[jefferson_dem]

9. Interesting field report.

Thanks for sharing. :)

[Cha]

19. Thanks for that on the ground report..and they

get to do it all over again in November..Here's to Critz beating him even more soundly:toast:

[whyverne]

8. I live in RedNeckVille, PA. North of Pittsburgh.

And I know a lot of these so-called rednecks are secretly voting D. The sad thing is that they're afraid to admit it in public. That's how strong of a hold the neo-redneck philosophy has on rural PA.

I cornered one guy and asked him, "You voted for Obama, didn't you?". He admitted that he did cause Obama was the candidate that said he would do something for the working guy.

I grew up around here and can't figure out where half these people came from. Like me, they're mostly the children and grand-children of mill hunks. Yet they walk around like they're freaking cowboys. They deride me for not listening to country music. I say, "I grew up on MoTown and RocknRoll, I don't know how this boring country music came around here. Unless you want to talk Johnny Cash."

I probably feel like my parents did when we all turned hippy. Except hippy was cooler.

[vaberella]

11. There's a "neo-redneck philosophy," is there a book on this?!

This is he same with a lot of Repubs. They claim to outwardly dislike Obama but I'm sure 20% voted for O in the GE.

[whyverne]

12. That's a good idea, I'm going to write that book.

"You Know You're a Neo-Redneck When..."

You deny your heritage and buy into nonsense about cowboys being the "real" Americans. When it was the "mill hunks" like my Dad who did the most to build this country.

[vaberella]

10. Isn't there a DUer who always does bad predictions---didn't he say dems would lose?

or was that about healthcare failing. It's insane how much he got wrong and he's always in line with Republican memes. Too funny. This is great.

[BeyondGeography]

13. Capehart was really making an ass out of himself this morning

Going on and on about Obama and blue-collar whites, pointing to nature of the campaign in the 12th as proof. He won PA going away in 2008 without the 12th and he'll do it again in 2012. We thank you so much for your concern, Jonathan.

[FrenchieCat]

14. It is amazing how television refuse to report the truth with the emphasis

where it belongs.

It says more about them (the media) than it does about our politics.

[TheKentuckian]

15. That's all media narrative and a fairly pervasive stuck in the mid 90's mindset

from all corners.

Its like almost the whole society decided en mass to just go back and attempt to relive the last Democratic Administration or something while willfully ignoring any change, growth, passage of time, events, demographic differences, or evolving opinions.

The most unfortunate aspect of this is the Administration not only fell for it but was in the front lines of the charge and decided tactically to play off their heels instead of pressing the advantage.

[Clio the Leo]

16. Yeah but I'm calling it a "SPECTACULAR failure" NT

[NJmaverick]

17. K & R!

[DeepModem Mom]

20. K&R!

[tanyev]

21. All that "evidence" only ever existed in their delusional minds.