25 Questions To Ask Anyone Who Is Delusional Enough To Believe That This Economic Recovery Is Real

[ozymandius]

If you listen to the mainstream media long enough, you just might be tempted to believe that the United States has emerged from the recession and is now in the middle of a full-fledged economic recovery. In fact, according to Obama administration officials, the great American economic machine has roared back to life, stronger and more vibrant than ever before. But is that really the case? Of course not. You would have to be delusional to believe that. What did happen was that all of the stimulus packages and government spending and new debt that Obama and the U.S. Congress pumped into the economy bought us a little bit of time. But they have also made our long-term economic problems far worse. The reality is that the U.S. cannot keep supporting an economy on an ocean of red ink forever. At some point the charade is going to come crashing down.

Well, today the purchasing power of our dollar is rapidly eroding as the price of food and other necessities continues to increase. So just because Americans are spending a little bit more money than before really doesn’t mean much of anything. As you will see below, there are a whole bunch of other signs that the U.S. economy is in very, very serious trouble.

#1) In what universe is an economy with 39.68 million Americans on food stamps considered to be a healthy, recovering economy? In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that enrollment in the food stamp program will exceed 43 million Americans in 2011. Is a rapidly increasing number of Americans on food stamps a good sign or a bad sign for the economy?

#13) The FDIC’s list of problem banks recently hit a 17-year high. Do you think that an increasing number of small banks failing is a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?

#14) The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that is basically flat broke. So what do you think will happen if a significant number of small banks do start failing?

#20) One new poll shows that 76 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is still in a recession. So are the vast majority of Americans just stupid or could we still actually be in a recession?

http://www.blacklistednews.com/?news_id=8878

[Dr.Phool]

1. Do you mean it's all just an illusion?

Or is it delusion?

I know they keep telling me there's no inflation, but everything I buy seems to get more expensive. Some things like utilities and insurance, are a LOT more expensive.

If a poll shows 76 percent of Americans still believe we're in recession, does that mean that the other 24 percent are on DU, and will believe anything they're told?

[ozymandius]

4. Talk about measures that are of no use...

That vapid measure called 'core' inflation (with the volatile food and energy prices filtered out because nobody uses those anyway) - is pure fiction. Call it willful ignorance if you wish. As for the latter, Dr. Phool, time will tell.

[karynnj]

18. It means that 76 percent have a personal definition of recession

Many of us here who state that we are no longer in a recession add that times are still very bad for many people. Recession has a technical economic meaning and that has been met. We are on the side climbing out of a deep hole - but thinking of that metaphor, remember that you are still far below the surface as you start the ascent.

In addition, that would get us to where we were in 2007. If you look back on DU to 2007, there were plenty who had problems with the economy then. Yet we were not in a recession then. Our economy, as it currently is, does not provide enough good paying jobs - in any part of the business cycle.

[Heywood J]

107. "Recession has a technical economic meaning and that has been met."

I think a word got mixed up in there.

"Recession has an arbitrary economic meaning and that has been met."

When more than 10% of the population is still unemployed (and in some areas, more than 15%), when millions are still losing their homes, buried under credit card debt just to survive, and forty million are on foodstamps, calling it "two consecutive quarters of negative growth" is misleading. The technical termination of the recession was because Goldman Sachs and others made a killing on their portfolios and by screwing investors.

[ozymandius]

2. US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus

The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history.

The M3 figures - which include broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by British and European monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance - began shrinking last summer. The pace has since quickened.

The stock of money fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6pc. The assets of insitutional money market funds fell at a 37pc rate, the sharpest drop ever.

The US authorities have an entirely different explanation for the failure of stimulus measures to gain full traction. They are opting instead for yet further doses of Keynesian spending, despite warnings from the IMF that the gross public debt of the US will reach 97pc of GDP next year and 110pc by 2015.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html

---

Debt is the new core mechanism for growth. Fifty years ago the core was manufacturing. Leadership really needs to fix this broken economic machine. Heavy indebtedness will not provide any sustainable measure of growth support.

[golfguru]

99. You are absolutely right on...it is all an illusion

fostered by media and those in power. I will not be surprised if
the unbearable debt Uncle Sam is taking on will end up in another
great depression. I know of no individual, no business, no country
ever prospered by taking on debt for CONSUMPTION (read Keynasian).

[Atman]

3. One problem with this...

In the second paragraph, it sets up the article with the premise that consumer prices are going up. This simply isn't the case.

[Demeter]

5. I'd Like To Know Where You Are Shopping

Because even in Michigan, which has been in an economic depression since 9/11/2001, prices are steadily rising.

[HughMoran]

25. "the smallest 12-month increase since January 1966"

The continuing stability of the index for all items less
food and energy has resulted in an increase over the last 12 months
of 0.9 percent, the smallest 12-month increase since January 1966.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[newthinking]

44. The trouble is wages are deflating. So that has the same affect as inflation.

[proudohioan]

51. Exactly! Excellent point...

and welcome to DU!

:hi:

[HughMoran]

61. Excellent point if we were talking about wages

we were talking about actual prices in supermarkets - but feel free to change the subject as it suits your argument...

[proudohioan]

68. And thank you for insinuating yourself into this post ....

and claiming the exclusive rights on the purity of a particular subject. I don't mean to be a total bitch, but it's getting tiresome having this kind of passive-aggressive attack placed upon folks having a conversation on DU.

[HughMoran]

70. Simply trying to stay on topic

I saw your perspective below and understand where you're coming from.

Both of our opinions are valid.

[Hawkowl]

91. Food and Energy is EXCLUDED

So we aren't really talking about supermarkets.

[HughMoran]

56. that doesn't counter the "have you gone shopping lately" argument

You can't change the argument after the fact...

[Name removed]

64. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HughMoran]

65. Can't make an argument, attack the poster personally

tried, true, lame...

[Demeter]

67. And here I thought I was complimenting you on your creativity and honesty

[proudohioan]

50. "Less food and energy...."

that's kind of a problem. Those are not exactly 'frivolous expenditures' that folks can cut out when times get hard.

[HughMoran]

55. Ummm, those numbers aren't bad either

Don't assume, those I posted here too - simply look...

[proudohioan]

62. Yes, I did look...

and thank you for posting them.

However, it is a problem for folks such as myself with food stamps as their only source of income right now. That small amount makes a big impact on the household.

I suppose it comes down to "the eye of the beholder".

[HughMoran]

63. Oh, I'll grant you that

I was staying with the 'big picture' frame of reference in this thread, but I am sure (as in your case) that many people are hurting worse than ever. The slow recovery has to be adding a sense of impending doom too, I'm sure. I hope it gets better for you and everybody else sooner than later.

[proudohioan]

69. Oh, I hope it gets better, too.....

and sooner, rather than later.

This slow recovery also seems to have the added benefit of having everybody on edge and ready to attack (and I am referring to myself here) at the drop of a hat. My sincerest apologies for attacking you on my most recent reply to you.

[HughMoran]

71. I understand

it's an internet phenomenon :hug:

[proudohioan]

76. I agree....

sometimes the anonymity of the internet is a bad thing. I guess it's just something that we have to learn to deal with and turn it to our advantage, not our demise.

:hug: back at ya!

[golfguru]

102. Obviously you have not shopped for...

groceries, health insurance, auto insurance, Lawyer's fees,
Doctor & Hospital charges, Wireless phone service, cable TV,
dentist bills, college tuition.

All are necessities and inflating at 6-10% minimum for me.

It is true that electronics, clothes, sports equipment and such
are not inflating because these are not every day necessities
and can be postponed.

[Heywood J]

108. If we take out two of the three biggest contributors to a family's budget,

inflation is going down! That's some fancy government math we're not supposed to think about. Meanwhile, food and energy prices are through the roof.

[ozymandius]

6. That depends on where you live.

Price stickiness from when oil was at $148/bbl still resonates in today's retail prices. Transportation costs always weigh on CPI. Geography plays a huge role in that scheme.

The daily cost of living has continued to rise as insurance premiums increase. Personally - my family pays more per month in health premiums yet receives less benefit from said increases when compared to relatively lower costs three years ago.

Our natural gas utility now charges 300% of the price on the NYME daily spot average even though prices have fallen from near $11/thousand cubic feet to just over $4 per unit at yesterday's close.

Fact is: oil and gas production increases will not do a damn thing until gaming of the markets is arrested. I do not see this happening under this administration.

[florida08]

8. Nor do I

Health insurance as well as homeowners continues to climb. Electricity is getting harder to control because of oil charge on it.
But any increase in wages is on hold.

[Dr.Phool]

28. Oil? Progress Energy is already charging us for 2 nukes they "might" build in 20 years.

They added a 30% surcharge to our bills last year for pre-construction costs.

I'm one of the 5 plaintiffs in the class action suit against them.
www.cfrpr.com

[florida08]

59. damn

that's what I'm talking about. We have a co-op. Power cost adjustment use to be a credit. Now the rate steadily increases. My charges for actual use go from $131 to $191 once they put pca and taxes to it. Hope you tear them a new one in your suit

[pundaint]

10. Gaming the markets is a huge problem. What is happening to the "efficiency of the marketplace?"

Was that always a lie, or is there some repairable imbalance?

[Loge23]

15. Oil prices are pushing construction materials up

Even with construction at an all-time low, materials such as rebar, other steel products, and PVC pipe are seeing increases in my FL market. These products, like gasoline, are slow to decrease in response to the market fluctuations. And yes, that's some casino they have going in the commodity markets.
Is that a sign of an economic recovery or yet another roadblock for one? (couldn't resist - I read the article!)

[bread_and_roses]

7. Have you been in a grocery store lately?

If not, I suggest a tour - or find someone on food stamps (won't be hard, you probably know someone with almost 40 million of us using them) - and ask them about the price of food these last months.

[HughMoran]

24. Ever heard of the Consumer Price Index?

Food

The food index rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in
March. The April increase was due to an increase in the index for
meats, poultry, fish and eggs, which rose 1.4 percent in April and
has now increased four months in a row. Other grocery store food
group indexes were mixed. The index for nonalcoholic beverages
increased 0.4 percent in April, while the index for other food at
home was unchanged. The fruits and vegetables index, which rose 3.4
percent in March, declined 0.2 percent in April. The index for dairy
and related products fell 0.8 percent and the cereals and bakery
products index declined 0.3 percent. The index for food away from
home, which was unchanged in March, rose 0.1 percent in April. For
the past 12 months the food index has risen 0.5 percent, with the
index for food at home unchanged and the index for food away from
home up 1.1 percent.

...

The continuing stability of the index for all items less
food and energy has resulted in an increase over the last 12 months
of 0.9 percent, the smallest 12-month increase since January 1966.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[Dr.Phool]

34. The Consumer Price Index is pure unadulterated, manipulated propaganda.

Read Kevin Phillips "Bad Money" to see exactly how they've manipulated it since LBJ. Fudged nunbers to make politicians look good. Here in the real world we know better.

Here's an excerpt from Harpers. It's a must read.




Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know

Kevin Phillips, Harper's Magazine
In Print: Sunday, April 27, 2008

http://www.tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece

[bread_and_roses]

45. Thank you Dr. Phool

I would have presumed that anyone would know this, but evidently I was wrong. Consumer Price Index, ROFL - excluding of course, the "volatile" food and energy sectors - those negligible expenses for the Oligarchs, but for the rest of us....

[HughMoran]

58. So you ROFL, then argue using the numbers

Heh, if you look below you'll see that including food and energy, prices still aren't rising much. Ooops.

[Dr.Phool]

79. Let's see.....

In the last 12 months,

Homeowners insurance up 35%
Electric bill...lower usage, up 30%
Health insurance, don't even want to go there.

Ever notice how, cereal, tuna, coffee, ice cream, etc., keep coming in smaller quantities?

If you had read the article, you'd see that the CPI assumes because you can't afford the porterhouse steak anymore, you'll switch to flank steak, or even chicken.

The numbers are rigged.

[hay rick]

109. CPI basket of goods.

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2009.pdf

Medical care: 6.513%!!!???

Meanwhile the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid estimated the actual cost of health care at 17.3% of GDP in 2009.

[proudohioan]

48. Not where I'm buying groceries.....

For the first time, I ran out of food stamp benefits before my next allotment kicks in. I have gotten this same amount for the past year, and have not been shopping any differently.

[DCBob]

9. Why is so hard to understand that we just beginning the recovery??

Of course there are still negative residual effects.. for Pete sake we nearly went into a depression. It may take a decade to come out of this.

[florida08]

11. but are we coming out of it?

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/27/smallbusiness/recovery_loan_queue/index.htm

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. What's with the "we" thing?

for "we" it ain't happening

[DCBob]

19. "We" as a nation..

Even in the best of times some dont feel it. Sorry for your situation. Good luck.

[Demeter]

66. Why Is It So Hard to Grasp That There Is No Recovery?

A recovery doesn't get powered by government largess, tax credits, bailouts, outsourcing good paying jobs to foreign lands, and the like.

A RECOVERY is powered by rising domestic employment at something above poverty level wages with benefits, and not including the armed forces or the government employment.

[DCBob]

78. A recovery does get powered by government investment..

Recession 101.

[mkultra]

118. yeah, you are ass backward

Recovery powers employment, not the other way around. As GPD grows, so does employement and the cycle becomes self subsitent. never the less, its GDP that goes first.

[girl gone mad]

12. k & r

[RC]

13. There can not be any recovery until we get our manufacturing jobs back into this country.

What we are seeing as "Recovery" is the money changing pockets in those people controlling the stock market. Think AIG, MIC(2 1/2 wars), etc.

Without those main street jobs there can be no real recovery. Those main street jobs are the fuel fuel for the economic engine. We are just going forward on momentum.

[DemReadingDU]

20. Exactly!

We need major manufacturing jobs. But who really thinks those corporations will ever bring them back?

[Dappleganger]

52. +1000

YOU get it!

[stevenleser]

84. We can define any accomplishment so that it means nothing. But it doesnt make your definition right

THanks for playing though and you are now on ignore.

[RC]

94. Are you sure you are at the right site?

If my above post was enough to get me on your ignore, then you have more problems than I want to deal with. Talk about a thin skin. You must be getting kinda lonely by now, if you are this sensitive. jeeze.

Oh, one last thing - Ask me if I care or otherwise am affected in any way?

[mkultra]

119. we are the #1 manufacturer in the world.

[fasttense]

16. I find the last two questions to be the most troubling.

"#24) In March, the price of fresh and dried vegetables in the United States soared 49.3% - the most in 16 years. Is it a sign of a healthy economy when food prices are increasing so dramatically?

#25) 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008. Not only that, more Americans filed for bankruptcy in March 2010 than during any month since U.S. bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005. So shouldn’t we at least wait until the number of Americans filing for bankruptcy is not setting new all-time records before we even dare whisper the words “economic recovery”?"

When the economy collapsed in 2008 and everyone was predicting it's continued failure, the one thing most people agreed to was that commodity prices, including fresh and dried vegetables, would skyrocket. They were saying this when everyone thought there was no saving the US economy from another RepubliCON Great Depression. Funny how it's happening now when we are supposedly recovering.

When pundits and the Obama administration claim we are in a recovery, they are saying that the people and families filing for bankruptcy are so unimportant to America that the economy can recover without them.

[BuelahWitch]

82. Even the vegetables and fruit in Aldi's are more expensive

I think it was in March that I bought a very large onion that cost me $4 (but not at Aldi's)

[Hawkowl]

92. 2 reasons for price increase

I believe there are two main reasons for food price increases. First, we now have a virtual monopoly (at least a very powerful oligopoly) in food production. Monsanto has a strangle hold on seed sales and can simply charge want they wish. If a farmer won't pay they sue him for patent infringement.

Second, probably even more important is the role commodity speculators and the free money lent by the Federal Reserve are playing in driving up prices by people who have no vested interest in the commodity contracts they are bidding on. Again, it is Wall Street running a massive con game to extract money from the middle class by borrowing money from us (the taxpayer) and then bidding up prices. Matt Taibbi has an excellent explanation of these massively destructive commodity markets.

What most Americans don't understand, because they don't have any formal training in economics, is that "free markets" only exist under a specific set of assumptions or rules. Rules which don't exist. Such rules as, all buyers and sellers have perfect information. And there can be no barriers to entry to markets, meaning anyone can buy or sell. There also has to be a very large number of both buyers and sellers or else bidding and asking is limited and parties have undue ability to set prices or collude on price fixing.

These are the reasons prices are climbing. Inflation is by definition simply too much money chasing too few goods. This doesn't seem to be the case. Oil is an excellent example where demand keeps falling, but price fixing and monopoly power keep prices rising.

[karynnj]

17. It is not an illusion that we are in the "recovery" portion of this cycle. It is also true that

there are systemic problems in our economy that need to be addressed. Our current economy, even when things are improving, does not provide enough good paying jobs that allow people to live decent lives.

One way to see this is that even if we got back to the 2007 number of jobs plus several million to reflect the people who would have joined the workforce in 2008 - 2010, we would still have many of the problems on this list. Yet at that point there is no way that anyone could argue that the economy has not "recovered".

The systemic problem has existed at least since the 1980s. Though many blame NAFTA, it likely only exasperated the underlying effect of the labor market being essentially global. The question for our government is how to help Americans command good wages.

Yesterday, in a breakfast Q&A - unfortunately only available if you pay, it was one of the things that Senator Kerry brought up. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/monitor_breakfast/2010/0526/Sen.-John-Kerry-Halt-to-offshore-oil-drilling-not-going-to-happenAfter listing the accomplishments of the last 2 years (the stimulus and the bailout of the banks; healthcare; and financial reform - with smaller things like education and Lily Ledbetter.), he spoke of the Senate/government side stepping some of the biggest challenges. He said that our biggest challenge is to our economic future. We need to decide what the US will produce. That we need to figure out how to raise the standard of living of our workers. We need new jobs with higher value added to justify higher wages. We need to step up to the challenge - because India, Brazil and China are growing in both economic power and population. Canada, the US, and Europe aren't.

He then spoke of the American Power Act(APC) being the single biggest economic transformation opportunity to get a footing in the biggest market. He spoke of the technology market of the 1990s being a $ 1 trillion market with 1 billion users. Energy is a $6 trillion market with 6 trillion users. "the mother of all markets" China, Brazil, Mexico, and Germany are moving faster to exploit it. Alternative energy products now top German industry. China is a leader in solar and wind technologies - though much was invented here. (He spoke of A123 having to go to China to manufacture, because there was no investment money here. They are coming back to build in Detroit.

He said this is best opportunity to recalibrate the economy - quoted Peterson study (that Prosense posted) that the APA projected to create 200,000 jobs @ year for 10 years.

Kerry is right here on his description of the problem - and it is not far from what he said in 1993. You might disagree that Kerry's energy bill with all the money and incentives for technology is the right solution, but something that transforms our economy in a big way has to be part of the solution.

[Dr.Phool]

35. Pete "Kill Social Security" Peterson?

From a billionaires perspective.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[SemiCharmedQuark]

38. Well the link posted is hardly a sterling source either.Author is a Paul Rand supporter.

Also links to Global Research and Lew Rockwell.

[karynnj]

47. Is that all you get out of what I wrote?

I did not even mention Peterson. The fact that Peterson's group wrote a positive report on Senator Kerry's proposal does not make the proposal wrong. Nor is it the only positive report.

Not to mention, that I was answering the op - and I was speaking of a fundamental problem in the US economy. The OP asked for debate and I guess I was naive to think that anything that said anything other than Obama sucks and the economy is not getting better was worth writing.

The fact though is that a list of signs that this still is hurt in the economy doesn't even try to assess the reasons. It is as unsatisfying as being told you have a temperature of 102 degrees - although it did come down from 104 degrees. You are still sick, even though the temperature is now moving towards normal. You want an diagnosis of what the problem really is and a cure for the problem.

That is the direction I was trying to explore. As I said, I think Kerry's statement of the problem is on target - as was his 1993 speech. Whether you agree that the APA is part of the solution is your choice. But rejecting it because someone whose OTHER positions you disagree with sees merit in it is silly. (especially as Kerry has always been a very strong supporter of Social security - not privatized.)

[Cha]

57. Thanks for the information..

karyn.

[bvar22]

98. Umm. You DID mention Peterson.

Go back and read your post #17.

"He said this is best opportunity to recalibrate the economy - quoted Peterson study (that Prosense posted) that the APA projected to create 200,000 jobs @ year for 10 years."---karynnj, Post #17

.
.
.
No Charge

[karynnj]

115. It was the study out of his think tank - I needed a way to refer to the study

Had it been a Yale study and I referred to it that way - would you have brought up something unrelated that you did not like about the College? Peterson himself did not do the modelling. It certainly is not discredited because Peterson is wrong on Social Security.

Not to mention, as I said, the comment addressed nothing I said.

[bvar22]

97. And Choco Rations will be increased by 4 grams next week!

Double Plus Good!

Pay no attention to the recently evicted living on the streets!
Which way to the "Mission Accomplished" parade?
:party:

[jeanpalmer]

117. Next three months are critical

There are some very negative events on the horizon: (1) unemployment benefits running out for millions of people with Congress not inclined to extend them; (2) the first time homebuyer credit ending, sending the housing market into the tank again; (3) 1.2 million census workers hired since the first of the year being laid off, driving up unemployment numbers; (4) draconian cuts to state budgets for the fiscal year starting in June/July that will result in 1 to 2 million people being laid off.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/18/867517/-A-perfect-storm-for-unemployment-in-June

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

21. Simple answer to all of them.

Recovering does not equal recovered. Recovery can take place over a long period of time. Really, that's it. That is the only thing that needs to be said.

[HughMoran]

26. It's like asking why you're not at the top of the mountain after hiking for 2 hours

...somehow forgetting that it's a 4 hour hike.

Threads with links to silly comparisons are as useless as tits on a bull.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

41. This author is also a Tea Party activist and a global warming denier

Here are some other interesting views:

I'm fed up with being told that the money I have worked so hard to earn needs to be "redistributed" to people who wouldn't know a hard day of work if it came up and bit them on the rear.

I'm fed up with Tea Party activists who believe in the Constitution and who desperately want to see a return to the ideals that the American republic was founded upon being labeled as "extremists" by the media while those who are pushing a socialism and globalism on America are referred to as "centrist" and "mainstream".

...

I'm fed up with being told that I need to reduce my "carbon footprint" when carbon dioxide does not cause global warming and over 95% of total carbon dioxide emissions would occur even if humans were not present on Earth.

I'm fed up with people telling me that we should be glad to pay all the new taxes in the "health care reform" law because socialized medicine is such a good idea.

...

I'm fed up with a government that is so embarrassed by the recent anti-illegal immigration law passed in Arizona that they apologize to the communist Chinese for it.

I'm fed up with a president and a Congress that are rapidly dismantling the strategic nuclear arsenal that has helped keep America safe for decades.

...

I'm fed up with a government that allows nearly a million innocent babies to be killed year in and year out.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/fed-up


We should ask the Freepers if we are in a recovery!

[DemReadingDU]

22. Rising prices do not necessarily indicate inflation

There can be rising prices during a deflation too. Prices rise and fall for any number of reasons...could be supply and demand.

Think of inflation as lots of credit. Just about anyone can buy anything with a credit card. And the maximum amount that can be charged, is quite large.

During deflation there is lots less credit. It gets increasingly more difficult for more people to charge things. And the amount that can be charged during deflation, gets smaller and smaller.

For those who have read about the 1930's, majority of people had to have cash to purchase things, or did without. There was little credit during the Great Depression.

[uponit7771]

30. RIGHT!! Also, there's no mention of CORE prices being steady...gas prices can go up and that's count

...counted in the overall inflation.

This article smells funny

[ozone_man]

42. Full scale deflation is yet to arrive.

I think the early signs are here, mainly in nonessential items, retail in particular. In food and energy, it's less apparent and prices could be increasing slightly. Though most commodities other than gold have been dropping, gold presumably is repsonsive to the idea of the euro failing and a gold back currency.

But, this is with the most massive deficit spending ever, like $1.6T this year alone. So, you can imagine the down draft when the credit spigot is turned off. The economy will drop like a rock, and prices too. The alternative (printing money) is far worse, as rising interest rates will kill us for sure. I think by the end of the year, there won't be much optimism remaining for a "V" shaped recovery. More like a downward lightening bolt, and we've only seen the first zig and zag. The next zig (starting) should be breath taking.

[DemReadingDU]

49. Agreed

The administration wants to keep the illusion going because they know what's going to happen. All the billions (trillions?) of government spending is only delaying the inevitable. There is so much going on around the world, anything could be the trigger to cause the masses of people to lose confidence to set in motion the next downward zig. We have been living in a giant global financial Ponzi for several decades, and it's going to implode as all Ponzis do. It's just a matter of time. It can't be stopped.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. By no means would I naively believe that we're in a recovery. But I do believe that the

situation could be much, much worse. We're not in a depression. There's still much work to be done.

NAFTA and "race to the bottom," deregulatory policies caused this. I blame Clinton as much as I blame Bush. And some of the blame is laid at Obama's/Democrat's feet as well. The corporatists have made a mess of the system with their deregulatory policies.

[uponit7771]

27. Lost credibility with "And GDP is not a really good measure of the economic health of a nation"

Might not be ANY measure of middle class economic job growth and health but it's bullshit to say it's not a "good" measure of economic growth.

Why is this dribble allowed here?

[mbperrin]

37. GDP is NOT a good measure of economic health or quality of life.

Example from my old economics adviser in the early 70s:

There's a lush tropical island with perfect weather year round. Fruits grow without human cultivation, fish are plentiful and can be scooped by hand from the water standing near the shore. No clothing or other shelter required, because the weather is so perfect. 1,000 people live here. Now what is the GDP here? Zero or close to it.

Now introduce universal cancer to the island, build a hospital to treat it, doctors, heavy equipment, and get the finest facilities anywhere at a cost of $1 million per person. Now what is the GDP? Around a billion dollars, clearly higher than before. Anybody want to argue the second scenario is better?

[ozymandius]

101. Well, first off, the word is 'drivel'.

But I had hoped that the discourse here would be more enlightened than dismissive name calling.

In Econ 101 GDP is expressed with the equation Y=C+I+G+N. The equation expresses consumption patterns for about everything produced in the country. It can also be manipulated, as any good stats teacher can show you, to make some things not so bad and other things much better than the ground realities.

There is an even better one; The Chicago Fed Economic Activity Index. There are five general metrics that measure economic activity, not just consumption, and each category breaks down into several more economic gauges, totaling over seventy in all. I would happily dump GDP as a metric of economic health and go for the more complicated CFEI numbers. But that, I measure, would not as easily fit into a news channel screen crawl as a basic GDP number.

[DemReadingDU]

29. The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets

As of December 2007, currency in circulation—that is, U.S. coins and paper currency in the hands of the public—totaled about $829 billion dollars. The amount of cash in circulation has risen rapidly in recent decades and much of the increase has been caused by demand from abroad. The Federal Reserve estimates that the majority of the cash in circulation today is outside the United States.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html

****************************
The banks have $13 trillion in assets, but there is only $829 billion in actual currency. If all of us go to the bank, at the same time, there is not enough money in the world to gives us what we have in our savings accounts.

[uponit7771]

31. Electronically there is, there's only 500 dollars paper cash per person in America

[DemReadingDU]

33. Well, I'm going to bank and getting my $500 today!

It's always a good idea to have some extra cash at home, for emergencies
:)

[HughMoran]

32. Looking at it from a top perspective halfway up the ladder is stupid. Oh, and CPI data

Consumer Price Index -April 2010

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in April, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the index increased 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy decreased 1.4 percent in April and accounted for
the seasonally adjusted decline in the all items index. The indexes
for gasoline and natural gas both decreased significantly,
outweighing increases in the indexes for fuel oil and electricity.

The food index increased 0.2 percent in April, while the index for
all items less food and energy was unchanged. The index for meats,
poultry, fish, and eggs rose sharply in April and accounted for the
food increase; other grocery store food groups were mixed and the
index for food away from home rose slightly. Within all items less
food and energy, the indexes for recreation, airline fares, and
medical care all rose in April. Offsetting these increases were
declines in the indexes for apparel and for household furnishings and
operations. The continuing stability of the index for all items less
food and energy has resulted in an increase over the last 12 months
of 0.9 percent, the smallest 12-month increase since January 1966.


Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average


Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. ended
2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 Apr.
2010

All items.................. .2 .2 .2 .2 .0 .1 -.1 2.2
Food...................... .0 .1 .1 .2 .1 .2 .2 .5
Food at home............. .0 .0 .2 .4 .1 .5 .2 .0
Food away from home (1).. .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .0 .1 1.1
Energy.................... .6 2.2 .8 2.8 -.5 .0 -1.4 18.5
Energy commodities....... .4 3.0 1.6 4.9 -1.3 -1.0 -2.1 37.0
Gasoline (all types).... .3 2.7 2.3 4.4 -1.4 -.8 -2.4 38.3
Fuel oil (1)............ 2.2 7.4 .0 6.1 -2.4 .7 2.3 28.0
Energy services.......... .8 1.1 -.3 .0 .5 1.4 -.5 -.2
Electricity............. .8 1.2 -.2 -1.1 -.5 2.1 .7 .6
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. .7 .9 -.7 3.5 3.9 -.7 -4.4 -2.9
All items less food and
energy................. .2 .0 .1 -.1 .1 .0 .0 .9
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... .4 .2 .1 .1 -.1 -.1 -.3 1.2
New vehicles............ 1.4 .5 -.2 -.5 .1 .1 .0 2.5
Used cars and trucks.... 3.1 1.9 2.2 1.5 .7 .5 .2 16.6
Apparel................. -.3 -.3 .4 -.1 -.7 -.4 -.7 -.9
Medical care commodities
(1).................. .2 .1 -.1 .7 .8 .4 .2 3.5
Services less energy
services.............. .1 .0 .1 -.2 .1 .1 .2 .8
Shelter................. .0 -.2 .0 -.5 .0 -.1 .0 -.7
Transportation services .5 .5 .3 -.3 .4 .4 .4 3.9
Medical care services... .2 .3 .2 .5 .4 .3 .3 3.7

1 Not seasonally adjusted.



Consumer Price Index Data for April 2010

Food

The food index rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in
March. The April increase was due to an increase in the index for
meats, poultry, fish and eggs, which rose 1.4 percent in April and
has now increased four months in a row. Other grocery store food
group indexes were mixed. The index for nonalcoholic beverages
increased 0.4 percent in April, while the index for other food at
home was unchanged. The fruits and vegetables index, which rose 3.4
percent in March, declined 0.2 percent in April. The index for dairy
and related products fell 0.8 percent and the cereals and bakery
products index declined 0.3 percent. The index for food away from
home, which was unchanged in March, rose 0.1 percent in April. For
the past 12 months the food index has risen 0.5 percent, with the
index for food at home unchanged and the index for food away from
home up 1.1 percent.

Energy

The energy index declined 1.4 percent in April after being unchanged
in March. The gasoline index, which fell 0.8 percent in March,
declined 2.4 percent. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices
rose 2.9 percent in April.) Over the past 12 months, the gasoline
index has increased 38.3 percent. The index for household energy
declined in April, falling 0.4 percent after rising 1.3 percent in
March. A 4.4 percent decline in the index for natural gas more than
offset a 2.3 percent increase in the index for fuel oil and a 0.7
percent rise in the electricity index. Despite the April decline,
over the last 12 months the energy index has risen 18.5 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in April,
as it was in March. The shelter index and its major components of
rent and owners' equivalent rent were all unchanged in April. The
index for new vehicles was also unchanged. The index for airline
fares increased sharply in April, rising 2.2 percent. The index for
recreation rose 0.3 percent in April, the medical care index
increased 0.2 percent, and the index for used cars and trucks rose
0.2 percent. In contrast, the apparel index fell 0.7 percent and the
index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.5 percent.
Over the last 12 months, the index for all items less food and energy
has risen 0.9 percent. The shelter, apparel, and recreation indexes
have all declined over that period.


Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
2.2 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 218.009
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.2 percent prior to
seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) increased 2.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index
level of 213.958 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.2
percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the
index increased 0.2 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis.
Please note that the indexes for the post-2008 period are subject to
revision.


The Consumer Price Index for May 2010 is scheduled to be released on
Thursday, June 17, 2010, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).


...does NOT support your post.

This is a garbage post.

[Dr.Phool]

36. Kick & Rec!

[SemiCharmedQuark]

39. Reduced to relying on Rand Paul supporting Tea Partiers? Really?

[tallahasseedem]

40. +1

Word.

[ozone_man]

43. Reduced to ad hominem attacks?

Attack the message, not the messenger.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

46. When people try and refute the "message", all they get are attacks on the messenger

Complaints that "that's not a real indicator" "that doesn't mean anything" "that's propaganda" "That guy is not to be trusted, he's trying to kill SS"

Why is everyone who isn't a teabagging asshole held to such a high standard and this author is beyond reproach despite the fact that he clearly has trouble discerning fact from fiction? Anyone that thinks Barack Obama is a SOCIALIST (!) is out of touch with reality.

I mean, if Obama is a socialist, WTF are the rest of us?

[ozone_man]

81. Which of the 25 indicators are you contesting?

They seem valid to me, some that resonate with me more than others. It doesn't really matter much who wrote them, though it's usually not someone in the MSM. Though there are a few exceptions like Paul Farrell for Market Watch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/Journalists/Paul_B_Farrell

I think there are a lot of indicators that the recession will return with a vengeance, and maybe become a depression. We've been trying to spend our way out of it, but I think we're approaching the limit of our debt, and when the debt bubble pops, it will be that much more destructive.

[ozymandius]

103. Reduced?

You clearly do not know me. Substance is what I am after. Do these questions make you feel uncomfortable?

[proudohioan]

53. K&R!! This economy (as it stands) is simply not sustainable.

As for fact #1? You nailed that one on the head! And think of how many folks that qualify for food stamps, but haven't (for whatever reason) actually applied? I know in my case, it took quite a bit of harsh reality to take that first step, myself.

When the tea baggers are griping about 47% of Americans paid no federal income tax, it boggles my mind; why the fuck aren't they looking at the bigger picture and asking themselves why 47% of Americans earn so little that they have no federal income tax liability? Damn, it's just so short-sighted!

IMO, this recovery is simply a series of band-aids mixed with a lot of crossed fingers, not the sustainable systemic changes that we need (but may not like).

[ProSense]

54. Most states see job growth

From the EPI (item 2 at the top of the page):

Most states see job growth
New state unemployment data show that 42 states and the District of Columbia experienced job growth over the past three months, although unemployment rates remain high.

[Cha]

60. Thanks for some reality..I know it's

just killing some that we have positive signs in our economy. That's really a shame.

[proudohioan]

80. I have to disagree with you, Cha.....

I don't think that it's actually killing anyone to have positive signs in our economy, and it is a shame that some feel so much negativity, but it's probably due more to their own (real or perceived) dire circumstances and loss of hope than anything else. Let's face it, we all come from different experiences and backgrounds, and we are never going to get 100% agreement on everything. It's simply the nature of the beast.

This is not a right v left issue, an 'anti-teabagger' issue, nor is it an "Obama-hater" v "Obama-cheerleader" issue. This is a societal issue, and one that we should be working on together, collectively, rather than creating a huge division amongst ourselves. All of this passive-aggressive to downright aggressive attacking is doing nothing but hurting us. We need to put this aside, and and figure out what we can do together. We are much more effective as a group than in fragments.

Don't fall into the 'divide and conquer' trap. The quicker we buy out of that, the stronger we become.

[Cha]

96. I do think it's killing some that anything positive

President Obama gets props. I've seen it in action too many times.

[proudohioan]

100. Agree, I've seen it myself......

however, those that are terminally pessimistic are a pretty small percentage and can never be reasoned with, just like those Limbaugh bobble heads. They should just be ignored.

We should be concentrating on getting the rest of us together, rather than dividing. I believe that we can all agree on key issues when we're not simply focused on a victory for 'our team'.

Honestly, I don't want Obama to fail, and I don't think most of us on DU do either, cuz if he fails, we all fail. And that's just not acceptable anymore. We just expect a hell of a lot more out of him because of his high intelligence.

Thank you for providing your opinion. I do consider it valuable.

[Cha]

113. Well, then we agree.

:)

[GOTV]

72. These are particularly poor questions

Even though I don't know if the economy is improving or not these questions are pretty poor indicators.

> #1) In what universe is an economy with 39.68 million
> Americans on food stamps considered to be a healthy,
> recovering economy?

A - in a universe where there was recently 40M on food stamps. I don't know if that was recently the case but you're wrong to hold up a static number and say that any possible economy is in the pits if there is 40 million people on food stamps.

You say that the number is going to increase and that's not good, but that's a speculation about the future that may or may not turn out to be true. If it turns out to be true things may be worse than we think now.

Sometimes economic improvements cause indicators to blip downwards. An improvement in the economy can cause a temporary increase of unemployment numbers as people who have stopped looking for work, and are therefore no longer counted, start looking again because they see signs of additional jobs.

> #13

I have no problem with #13. That's not a good sign. I don't know that it should be a recession indicator though.

> #14) The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of
> $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that
> is basically flat broke. So what do you think will happen
> if a significant number of small banks do start failing?

What I "think will happen if a significant number of small banks do start failing" has nothing to do with the state of the economy. This is actually the worst of the 4 questions since it is completely irrelevant.

> #20) One new poll shows that 76 percent of Americans
> believe that the U.S. economy is still in a recession. So
> are the vast majority of Americans just stupid or could we
> still actually be in a recession?

Over half of Americans believe in angels - doesn't make them real. How many Americans can tell you what the definion of a recession is? This is the 2nd worst question because it's only slightly tangentially related. Recovery would be faster if people thought things were great but thinking things are poor doesn't make them poor.

[treestar]

73. Feels very real to me; I had so little business last year

And am busy this year.

[Jennicut]

74. We are in a recovery...heading back to where we were before this all started in 2007/2008.

And that time period was not that great. Longterm problems require longterm solutions. Obama had to get us out of the hole first. We needed a stimulus. But we need so many more things to be addressed: the lack of manufacturing jobs, the jobs going overseas, the issues with Nafta, the stagnant wage of the average worker. Those are things that won't be fixed in one or two years. "The bottom 40 percent of those living in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth." And Obama did that in 1 and a half years? We didn't get there overnight. We won't fix that overnight, either. Now, one can criticize Obama over what he may or may not do to change those things. But to say Obama is responsible for that as this article implies is kind of BS.

Also, this article keeps mentioning our debt over and over again. If you are in a recession, you can't cut the deficit and debt while trying to get out of the recession. You have to spend some money. Krugman says as much.

[muriel_volestrangler]

75. Classic tea-bagger innumeracy

#5) With the U.S. Congress planning to quadruple oil taxes, what do you think that is going to do to the price of gasoline in the United States and how do you think that will affect the U.S. economy?

Oh, I don't know, let's check the amount, shall we?

Responding to the massive BP oil spill, Congress is getting ready to quadruple—to 32 cents a barrel—a tax on oil used to help finance cleanups. The increase would raise nearly $11 billion over the next decade.

The tax is levied on oil produced in the U.S. or imported from foreign countries. The revenue goes to a fund managed by the Coast Guard to help pay to clean up spills in waterways, such as the Gulf of Mexico.
...
Lawmakers want to increase the current 8-cent-a-barrel tax on oil to make sure there is enough money available to respond to oil spills. At least 6 million gallons of crude have spewed into the Gulf of Mexico since a drilling rig exploded April 20 off the Louisiana coast.

I'd say that might increase the price of gasoline by no more than a cent per gallon. So the answer to "how do you think that will affect the U.S. economy" is "in no fucking way whatsoever".

But Paulites will have their propaganda.

[asphalt.jungle]

77. this thread is like freeper heaven

and then later links to more right wing claptrap at the daily telegraph. it's good to see the points of view of the other side, but does it have to be on this site? it's the internet after all, so easy to visit right wing sites to find out what they are saying.

[stevenleser]

83. We get it. You dont want it to appear as if Obama is successful.

Dont worry about responding, you are on ignore now.

[girl gone mad]

95. Absurd.

In order to be successful, President Obama will need to implement viable economic policies, a task his administration has thus far rejected. Rubinomics, endless bail outs for financial criminals, weakening good reforms and a putting a small band-aid on the real economy won't cut it. Extend and pretend will fail sooner or later, a point that those on the left have been making for months. Obama can listen and learn or he can blindly remain on the broken path he has chosen. His success or failure is in his own hands. Those who are trying to wake him up to the reality that the trail he's walking down dead ends on rocky cliffs don't deserve your brand of silly insinuation. If anything, they deserve admiration for devoting their time, uncompensated, to sounding those alarms.

Bush would have done well to listen to critics who said his economics policies were unsustainable. Instead, he banished and ignored them.

[ozymandius]

104. Then I will respond for the benefit of others.

If all I cared about were appearances, as the previous administration and their minions did, then I would not bother posting something that had a twinkle of reflection in the realm of cogent thought. Appearances bother those who think about these things.

If Obama is to be successful, as I certainly hope that he is, then he will eschew the economic mindset that is trying to preserve itself in his administration. The mindset of which I speak is the one that preserves the perverted and discredited agenda of the monetarists. This mindset is comfortable with trading away wages and supplanting wage inflation with debt. The agenda that elevated easy credit/debt as a substitute for rising wages started vigorously thirty years ago with Reagan. It is this same mindset that would meet any challenge to bank supremacy in our economy with Geithner and Summers doing their bidding inside the Obama administration.

The next extrapolation that one can digest either through action or inaction with this Congress and this administration is the preservation of the status-quo. Wages from work, rather than the velvet glove investing class, will pull this economy from the ditch. Obama really should have nationalized the whole lot of mega banks over a year ago. Are you familiar with the circumstances that would have prompted this? It is called the "prompt corrective action law". Good man, William Black, has written about this extensively. You might want to familiarize yourself with this. That would have been a great start to put us on a steady forward path.

[Dr.Phool]

111. So are you asshole.

[NJmaverick]

85. Damn those banksters and corporatists and their fake recovery

damn all those 100s of thousands taking jobs just to make it look like there is a recovery

damn all those people increasing our nation's GDP

damn all those people buying things

damn all those corporations turning losses into profits

damn all those positive economic indicators

damn all those people who listen to facts and reason and believe that the economy is recovering

damn all those economists for supporting all those delusional listen to facts people

damn them all to hell! :crazy:

[florida08]

86. We all want Obama to succeed

We want our economy to succeed. Hell I want Wall Street to succeed. What I don't want is a pump and dump economy. Creating bubbles and watching them pop. If we get real finance reform and not finance tweaking then that's something to believe in. But if we don't then the real chance for permanent recovery is questionable. We can't sustain a constant state of rescue with no backbone.

[proudohioan]

88. "a pump and dump economy"?? Oh thank you for injecting some sense..

here! These are not 'anti-Obama' sentiments, these are economic problems for our entire society! And I SURE as hell can't take any more of this boom & bust shit either. It's simply not sustainable! Never has been, never will be.

And besides, I'm getting to old for that bubble crap.

[florida08]

89. thank you for understanding

I'm still wondering about all those toxic derivatives that haven't been dealt with yet. Me too!lol

[Political Tiger]

87. This OP starts off with a lie:

LIE: "In fact, according to Obama administration officials, the great American economic machine has roared back to life, stronger and more vibrant than ever before."

The Obama administration has NEVER made any such claim! So why does the author of this OP feel compelled to lie? My guess is because he has an agenda, and that agenda is NOT intended to be truthful or factual.

[Cha]

90. Got lots of people to lap

up those lies, though..mission accomplished.

[johnaries]

93. OTR fuel transactions are up. That means more goods are

being shipped. Which means more people are buying goods. That means we are in a recovery. OTR transactions have always been a leading indicator.

[hamerfan]

105. A question for the OP...

Why do you hate America? :sarcasm:
:applause:

[ozymandius]

106. Because it bothers me so.

:sarcasm:

There is a better way forward. When we all do better then we all do better.

Thank you. :hi:

[BlueIris]

110. K&R & thanks! nt

[ibegurpard]

112. It IS real

whether it can last(and for some of the reasons you put forth) is the question.
I work in the transportation industry and there is a SERIOUS shortage of trucks right now to transport all of the freight that people are trying to move.

[eridani]

114. It's really a recovery. The problem is that recoveries just don't mean what they used to mean

There were two recessions and two recoveries in the Bush years, but over the entire decade there were NO NEW JOBS ADDES at all!. It looks like this pattern is going to extend out for another 10 years, if not forever. We are in deep shit, and our ruling class seems to neither know nor care.

[ncteechur]

116. The answer to #20 is YES. A vast majority of Americans are ridiculously stupid.

[mkultra]

120. people are stupid and thus dont understand that we are in recovery

The patient is stable and is improving but is still in ICU. Many people are the dumb fucks in the waiting room that can only think in binary terms. To them, its either good or bad.

[paulk]

121. what worries me most about this "recovery"

is that the increase in consumer spending is not coming from the middle class...

http://www.dailytitan.com/2010/05/24/consumer-spending-trend-is-a-shaky-foundation-for-economic-recovery/

"WASHINGTON — Increased consumer spending has fueled hopes that the current economic recovery will keep getting stronger, but behind the encouraging numbers is a little-noticed reality: Much of the new spending has come not from America’s broad middle class but from a small slice of affluent people at the top."