Nate Silver asks: Is Gulf Disaster Spilling into Obama's Approval Ratings?

[depakid]

We haven't written very much about the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Needless to say, it's a real tragedy for people in the Gulf Coast states, a region which was hit hard both by the hurricanes of 2005 and by the economic hurricane that has hit the country over the past couple of years. I hope that those of you with means will consider spending some time down there. Without meaning to trivialize the situation, it does bear considering whether the incident is having any impact on Barack Obama's political fortunes.

The hard evidence is mixed. This is Pollster.com's chart of Obama's approval ratings since the oil spill occurred. You can arguably see a point or two's worth of deterioration in his numbers:

Disapprove: 49.2%

Approve 46.4

Most of this is driven by the two pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen, that track Presidential approval on an ongoing basis; the other national pollsters have been relatively dormant lately. Rasmussen has not really shown any deterioration in the President's numbers -- but then again, Rasmussen had them being relatively poor to begin with. Obama has had a rough spell in Gallup's polling, on the other hand, which also printed a very poor number for Democrats in their generic ballot polling this week.

Although the trend is not very robust -- it may just be statistical noise -- the notion of some modest downward pressure on Obama's numbers rings true to me. On the one hand, this is a real event, a really horrible event, that real people are noticing -- and not the sort of ginned-up faux scandal that can dominate Washington's coverage during slow periods in the political cycle. Although it's dangerous to relate from personal experience, a lot of people in my social circle have certainly been thinking about the disaster in the Gulf, including what they perceive to be a lackluster response from the White House.

<snip>

There are, of course, other strands of criticism too -- like Maureen Dowd's refrain that Obama is too aloof and dispassionate, and the argument (mostly from liberals) that contrary to perceptions, the White House is in fact too slack with major corporations. Those adhere into a more coherent anti-Obama narrative when it comes to the Gulf disaster. On the other hand, they are probably not things that people on Main Street are talking or thinking much about.

Mostly I simply think that the disaster is reinforcing people's frustration -- an emotion that has become very widespread within the country, and which crosses most demographic and political boundaries. If that remains the prevailing mood of the country in November, the risks to the incumbent President and his incumbent party are mostly to the downside.

More: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/is-gulf-disaster-spilling-into-obamas.html

[scheming daemons]

1. This didn't include Gallup's poll from today: Approve 50%, Disapprove 44%

....


Nice try.

[depakid]

2. Not "trying" anything- just posting analysis

And, as I posted in another thread, I agree- there's very likely to be a continuing downward trend as the oil spill continues to get worse.

People tend to blame the administration in office when "bad shit happens," whether that's fair or not (ask Jimmy Carter about that).

Moreover, in this instance, Obama (and to some extent the rest of the party) lost the moral high ground when they pandered to the right on drilling- without bothering to have their own house in order first. Not much upside in all of this.

[babylonsister]

4. Yes you are 'trying', as you do daily. You kidder. nt

[depakid]

7. For some people, it's not a for 'em or agin 'em deal

but issue and values based.

Some choose politicians over policies and party over principles. Others don't.

It's an unfortunate tendency that got a whole worse- and was reinforced repeatedly during the Bush administration.

[babylonsister]

8. It's quite obvious who you are consistently against. And you

aren't always talking about policies, or you'd throw a bone once in awhile.

Speaking of transparency!

[depakid]

10. Not about "throwing bones- but about support for or opposition to policies

and political moves and procedures.

Fact is, the administration's actions lately (and fairly frequently over the past 18 months) run counter to my own and to traditional Democratic values- and the interests of our constituencies. Indeed, at times they've gone out their way to be insulting- or to pander to the right. Not very effective stuff- which is why Republicans are poised to take back the House majority, something unthinkable for this pathetic bunch of nutters less than a year ago.

On the other hand, I've supported the administration and posted and responded to many things since Obama began his campaign that were supportive- when support was due. And if and when they "get it right" again I'll post about that too.

[jefferson_dem]

11. LOL!

:spray:

Of course, you are "trying", as your post here makes clear. Be honest.

[depakid]

12. Obama's and the Democrats fortunes will rise or fall quite independently of any supposed "trying"

on my part or on Nate's.

If indeed they do fall, then you and others can look back on this post and others and gain some wisdom as to why.

[Jennicut]

3. Two polls are not something that can be used as evidence for much, especially when

one shows Obama back up to 50% today and another is a RW crap poll. Rasmussen had Obama down to 42% a few days ago but then decided it was 48%. But then that was too high so it is back down to 46%. Can anyone make sense of that?

[Thrill]

5. Considering the media coverage he gets. I'm surprised he isn't in the 30s approval rating.

[depakid]

6. That's definitely something to factor into the equation

and I don't see it getting any better over time, especially as the oil really starts to come ashore.

[Clio the Leo]

9. Anyone understand Gallup's "Weekly Poll" vs the regular one?

Because ... apparently, the "weekly poll shows Obama at an all time low of 46%"

It's weird.

[Jennicut]

13. Last weeks average was 46%. Today's poll was 50%.

[Clio the Leo]

14. well my goodness, did he go BELOW 46% at some point?

I never watch the Gallup..... just see the threads you all post ... so I only see the GOOD days! lol

[Jennicut]

15. 45% one day. And then it immediately went back up.

I do think the oil spill effected him...for one week. Obama is remarkably resilient.

[Mass]

16. Both shows basically the same thing: Obama in the high 40s.

Given the statistical errors and the fact tracking polls are sensitive to bad samples, it does not make sense to pay too much attention to a daily data and a lot better to look at the trend. I know it may feel some people better to see a bump in the trend, but when you look at the curve, you will see that, since April, Obama has been consistently between 45 and 50, so the 46 is not that different. If you see a period where he is fluctuating around 50 for a couple of weeks, it would be progress. If he is fluctuating around 45, it would be worse. But daily numbers by themselves are pretty much meaningless.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx