Big Pivot from Crisis to Opportunity: Part 1, Politics.

[ProSense]

Big Pivot from Crisis to Opportunity: Part 1, Politics.

by RLMiller

A sliver of silver lining in the Gulf disaster has been its unflinching spotlight on the wrongs of our fossil-fuelish ways. President Obama understands the connection between the crises of extractive energy and the opportunity of clean energy:

But we have to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to drilling four miles beneath the surface of the Earth, and these are risks -- these are risks that are bound to increase the harder oil extraction becomes. We also have to acknowledge that an America run solely on fossil fuels should not be the vision we have for our children and our grandchildren.

In the same speech, Obama indicated support for the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act and promised: "the votes may not be there right now, but I intend to find them in the coming months."

APA is perceived as a watered-down bill: too many giveaways to nuclear power (12 new plants), the chimera of clean coal ($10 billion), and Big Oil (expansion of offshore drilling). Shortly before its release, it gained the support of three Big Polluters; were it not for a badly-timed hissy fit from Lindsey Graham, a beaming BP executive would have stood next to John Kerry on April 26 for the bill's rollout. Instead, Graham's temper tantrum has become a political opportunity for Democrats to strengthen the climate bill.

Currently, the bill's whip count is: 26 strong yes, 11 probably yes, 31 fence sitters, 10 probably no, and 22 strong no. Over the last 11 months, the most dramatic shifts have been in "yes" (35 in July 2009 down to 26) and "fence sitter" (23 in July 2009, now 31). Most recently, Senators Lautenberg, Menendez, and Bill Nelson have moved from "yes" to "fence sitter" because they oppose offshore oil expansion. Of the 31 Senators currently sitting on that apocryphal fence, 11 are Republicans (Alexander, Scott Brown, Collins, Corker, Graham, Gregg, LeMieux, Lugar, Murkowski, Snowe, and Voinovich). A bill must collect the 26 yes votes and 34 votes from the 52 probably yes, fence sitters, and probably no categories to pass. Note: all whip count information is taken from a firewalled E&E News link.

What if the climate bill were to become "BP-Free," i.e., all provisions favored by Big Polluters were to be stricken? (Part 2 will spell out policy details.) The bill would be a better bill. And that flock of fence-sitters would face a choice: stand with BP, or stand with Americans for clean energy.

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[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[quakerboy]

2. Do you percieve that this

potential pivot to action with be actualized?

From where I sit, it is hard to believe that even in the current situation our senate will do any more than pass the bill as it was, or more probably watered down yet a little more. Having it get stronger seems unlikely. I don't know that our democrats, taken collectively, have any real desire to take advantage of the political opportunity to effect change.

[ProSense]

3. Given the BP catastrophe, it's likely

that the bill will be made stronger, especially in terms of regulations.

[quakerboy]

5. Given the amount of money the other oil corps can throw at 41 republicans

and the democrats as well, I find it unlikely that any strengthening of the bill will be more than window dressing at best.

[craigmatic]

4. A new poll shows that support for drilling is in the 40's with 51% of people against it.

Yet the repubs still overwelmingly support drilling. This is a huge stick Obama can beat the repubs over the head with.

[Mass]

6. He may want to say that to Reid and Schumer, who don't think a climate bill is important

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/101667-schumer-dems-likely-to-keep-energy-and-climate-measures-separate