Can Obama win in 2012, given today's climate? The Republicans have no real leader.

[secondwind]

I know it's too premature to throw this out there, but I am still very hopeful we can have Obama as President in January 2013. Any doubters out there, please check in......... I'd like to know what others are thinking.

[msongs]

1. the reign of the conservative dems may continue, or perhaps we can get liberal/progressive? nt

[gateley]

2. Yes. I think he'll continue to work toward goals, and many will have

seen the benefits by that time of programs/bills he's supported that they're currnetly against.

[salguine]

41. The goals he's "working toward" are shitty corporate goals, and he's working toward

them diligently. Someone else in 2012!

[MissDeeds]

86. +1000

Corporate goals indeed!!! Primary his butt in 2012!

[gory]

3. Yes. Clinton won in 1996 despite weak Congressional elections

So I am confident Obama will win.

[Cosmocat]

13. Only two ways he loses ...

a major terrorist attack on US soil, which will have him absolutely savaged by the same arse hats (wingers and MSM) who never held the dimwit to account for allowing it to happen on his shift while SOMEHOW having them forward the meme that he "kept us safe ..."

OR, a major economic downturn ...

The GOP will try to spin it negatively, but even a modest recovery is enough for an incumbant as likeable and competent as BO is to win his second term ...

[bluestateguy]

19. That was the whole idea

Clinton was listening to Dick Morris and his bullshit triangulation strategy, and refused to campaign for a Democratic Congress, even when it was clear by April/May that he would win.

[Bullet1987]

4. The problem with Obama

Is that he has not built a strong enough coalition of voters. I mean, he did so in 2008...but then he abandoned them. So all of the talk and hope of a Progressive revolution (akin to Reagan's conservative revolution) died in less than a year of Obama in office. If/when Obama wins in 2012, it'll be because the Republicans are too fractured and incoherent. The Democrats aren't all in agreement either though.

[impik]

7. He did not abandon anyone. Many on the left abandoned him less than 100 days into his presidency

And in two years you'll get what you deserve - Some sort of a George Bush.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

31. Disagree with you there. Who are they gonna vote for? Palin? Obama in a landslide!

[depakid]

34. You seem to wish that on people a lot

Simply because they don't like the administration's pursuit of bipartisan fantasies at the expense of effective public policy or the interests and principles of our constituencies.

[dflprincess]

35. Obama & his stooge, Rahm, have made it clear he doesn't need the left

so don't blame us if things go badly this November or in 2012. You can't have it both ways.

[impik]

39. When exactly did Obama "have made it clear he doesn't need the left"?

Oh, i know, that's what they say at FDL, so it must be true.

And hey, i won't blame anyone if 'things go badly this November or in 2012'. We all get what we deserve. I only hope that you're ready to get yours.

[Beacool]

11. He cannot be abandoned by those he never really had in the first place.

Many Democrats who voted for Obama in the GE only did so because the other choice was too unbearable to consider.

:shrug:

[CakeGrrl]

28. Whaaaaaaat?

I know it's been very difficult to divine your true feelings about the President, but with some hard work and effort, I think I've figured it out.


:evilgrin:

[saltpoint]

36. Horseshit. He won by 10 million votes and the enthusiasm quotient

was sky-high and historic.

[martymar64]

78. That enthusiasm won't be there in 2012 now that we know who he really is

Just another corporate lackey that is selling American working people down the river.

[saltpoint]

81. And who is not likely to be challenged from either his left or his right.

His polling remains strong. The left, such as it is in the United States, has no scaffolding from which to do any work at the community level past a few isolated focused (and well-run) operations. As a result, there is no statewide presence for the left and no chance a leftist candidate will win a statewide ballot in all but one or two states.

An Evan Bayh, for example, would stand a better chance as an independent candidate than as a conservative Democrat challenging Obama. There are only a handful of conservative Democrats who have both the profile for a presidential run and residual backing, but none of those matches Obama in popularity and will definitely not match him in support among grassroots and county chair Dems. Bayh could be a favorite son in Indiana and draw support away from Obama there, but Obama slaps him down almost everywhere else.

The odds of unseating a sitting nominee are long. Extraordinary circumstances have to transpire for it to happen in U.S. history, and even then the path is complicated and steep.

The initial enthusiasm of a historic election will not be as keen, certainly, but the bedrock demographic support Obama enjoyed in 2008 will be largely intact. And no one on the GOP side of the debate is going to cut into that support.

[vaberella]

57. He also beat HRC. Was she too unbearable to consider as well?! n/t

[Beacool]

70. To some people she may have been.

As for beating Hillary, more registered Democrats voted for her than for Obama. His pledged delegate advantage was won through the caucus states.

:shrug:

[martymar64]

77. Exactly

Thus the arrogance of the White House now.
The use the specter of a Republican boogeyman to keep the peasants in fear, even while they continue and expand the corporate-friendly policies of their Republican predecessors.

[Beacool]

83. Well, I won't ever vote again for any Democrat just because he/she has a "D" after his/her name.

I'm done with both parties, different sides of the same coin.

;-)

[Jennicut]

16. Actually, all the current polling out there shows extreme dislike of Obama only by conservatives

and some independents. The Dems are about 80 to 85% for Obama, per Gallup and other polls. I would say that is strong support. And against these Rethugs? THey have no one right now.

[vaberella]

58. Yuppers. Isn't he still high with Independents though? n/t

[HooptieWagon]

30. He's going to have a hard time getting progressives excited.

Hope for change is beginning to wane - still in two wars, Gitmo still open, single payer/public option not even allowed to be discussed, admin filled with lobbyists, cozying up to Corps....

[AlinPA]

5. Yes he can win. The republicans' current leader is Palin. Their base and media love her and she

will be their leader in 2012 as well. Over the last year, their party leadership has shifted from McCain to Palin and their spokespersons, Beck, Limbaugh, Liz Cheney, Hannity. Rand Paul is stepping in now.

[harun]

6. If we can get some job growth he will have an easy go of it.

[impik]

8. I'm not even sure he'll run again. Why would he.

[Cosmocat]

12. yeah, cause there is so much more out there for him ...

I mean, LOTS of bigger things for a 52 year old guy to move on to, right?

It astounds me that people even want to TRY to think he won't run ... Dude is going to live 30 more years, WTF else is he going to do that beats being POTUS?

[CakeGrrl]

17. The point might be, "Why bother when he gets so much shit from all sides?"

I've talked to others who have come to that point: Since so many people seem to hate what he's doing or can't stop bitching about him, they think he should just say 'fuck it', retire with Michelle and the girls, and leave this country to try to find the President they seem to want since so much of what's in the news and on the blogs is about what he is not perceived to be doing.

I can see where people are coming from, but on the other hand, I don't want to be subjected to the shitty leadership I'm pretty certain will ensue if he were not to seek a second term. There's noise coming from all corners of the political arena for various reasons, but I think he's the right person with the right temperament for dealing with the issues and the...people with whom he has to deal.

As to "retire to what", sure there's no other job with the cachet of the US Presidency, but it also takes its toll. I doubt that whomever some of the naysayers would rather see in office could handle it any better. The Obamas could write their own ticket in the private sector, and it's not a job he can hold for more than 8 years, so he'll be in his 50's looking for the next thing to do at any rate.

[impik]

38. What he's always done: helping people who will actually appreciate him

And without the terrible and life-shorting stress of a presidency. If you'd read a little bit about him, you'll see that he doesn't have the pathological need o be the president of the United States.

[Cosmocat]

47. LOL ...

fortunately, he is not at soft skinned for himself as you are for him ...

And, your haughty admonishment about "read a little bit about him" is all fine and well, but I know more than enough about the man to know he ain't backing down cause people are being mean to him, and that he is definitely driven to make a difference, and there is no better place to do that than sitting behind the desk at the oval office - conversely, he cares enough to not step down and subject the world to whatever lunatic R will likely serve those next four year ...

You think he didn't know he was going to take shiite from the idiots on the right and the MSM when he ran for the job?

Seriously ...

[niceypoo]

48. He didn't pursue the job out of naivete

...suddenly to realize too late there were meanies under every rock. He knew exactly what he was walking into, he saw what happened to Clinton.

Doubtful he wants to join Palin in the rogue gallery of quitters.

[Beacool]

71. Is that wishful thinking?

:D

[vaberella]

9. If he runs...he'll win. Republicans just keep losing. n/t

[pnorman]

10. If Obama is NOT on the ballot as Demiocratic candidate in 2012,

the winner will be a Reptilican! GUARANTEED! And it'll take at LEAST 8 more years to recover from that national disaster! Do we have that much leeway for error?

As one who voted AGAINST Lieberman in 2000, I'm baffled by those who are now chanting Nader's signature phrase: "There's not a dime's worth of difference between......!"

[Clio the Leo]

24. *

[depakid]

27. Obama may well be so unpopular by that time that even a nutter can beat him

You never know what could happen after 3 years of economic distress, environmental disaster(s) and prolonged war.

In addition, I have no idea where you got "people voting against Lieberman" in 2000. Maybe you weren't alive and cognizant- and so just pulled that right out of your ass. Lieberman at the time- while still a whiner and overly conciliatory, didn't earn his reputation until well into the Bush era.

What happened was that Clinton's incessant pandering to the right and enabling, legitimizing and adopting right wing policies created a vacuum and split the party. That could well happen again- although equally likely is that people will just get cynical about the administration's behavior- and not volunteer or GOTV.

[HughBeaumont]

65. The next Republican presidency will KILL America DEAD.

You think Bewsh II was bad? President Sarah Palin will render this country a dying grey corptocracy. No rights for anyone except the wealthy. No free enterprise for anyone except the wealthy. No progress for anyone except the wealthy. No wealth for anyone . . . except the wealthy.

There ain't-a gonna BE no recovery from the next Republican president's stupidity, which is why it cannot and will not happen.

[Lorien]

84. If people voted against the GOP in 2008 and are pissed at Obama for acting

like he's a member of the GOP (not SPEAKING like he's a member, but ACTING like it), then why on earth would America vote for another Republican? Republicans AND THEIR FAILED POLICIES are what the majority in this Country have been trying to escape.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. I can't see anybody else winning

Nor could I see Obama being a one-term President absent some political catastrophe that I can't possibly fathom at the moment. The economy seems to be in recovery (albeit a slow one) and he hasn't made any catastrophic political missteps so far that the Republicans have been able to really capitalize on (plus they got their own problems). There's a lot of hurdles present and ahead for Obama and the Democratic Party in general but, really, what are the Republicans going to run on in 2012 that's going to propel them back into the WH? It would have to be something extraordinary and unique for them to draw voters back to them and right now the only *energy* they have in their party is the "tea party movement" and most "teabaggers" are just.....well....crazy and hardly represent the mainstream- and proving to be a liability for the party in the form of primary challenges that I'm sure they didn't really want to have to deal with. Additionally, anybody the GOP runs will have to toe the "teabagger" and, of course, the traditional fundie line. Who would be able to do THAT? :shrug:
Some people may be disillusioned with President Obama now but- come election time- I'll be surprised if there is a significant mass of people unwilling to at least pull the lever for him if for no other reason than to keep another Republican (mis-)administration out of the WH.

[Imajika]

15. The Republicans have nothing...

Obama will be a very strong candidate for reelection. It isn't necessarily that the President is so popular anymore, it's that the GOP has no serious contenders. Even with a legitimate candidate, when it comes down to an election people get to compare between nominees. Compared to the loopyness the Republicans will probably have on offer come 2012, Obama's centrism will probably be a big asset. Remember, Obama is not campaigning yet and he is still holding at around 50% approval.

[niceypoo]

49. The GOPs 'legitimate contenders' are all loonies too

Because they have be extreme to stay in the party. The ideological downslide of John McCain is a good example of what republicans have to do to stay relevant in their party. Go off the deep end. Kowtow to the fringe.

[bluestateguy]

18. If he does not take his opponent lightly, I think his prospects are good

Hopefully that lesson was reinforced by Scott Brown and Martha Coakley.

[besdayz]

20. it will be 1984

all over again....

crappy first term after all the hype and talk....but then a landslide victory due to personal popularity.....

palin is their ferraro, romney their mondale....

[depakid]

21. The economic conditions may look more like 1992

[Uzybone]

75. you are exactly right

the whiners on left and right are a small minority. All the serious folks on the left will vote for Obama.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. If Obama's approval stays at around 50% through 2010 and 11, he'll walk in 12.

And so far, it seems his bottom is about 45% and his ceiling is much, much higher.

Obama will win in 2012 barring an economic meltdown or a major scandal.

[pmorlan1]

23. He no longer has my vote

I voted for him in 2004 but I will not vote for him again. He's continued and even expanded some of the worst of the Bush administration's excesses. He doesn't stand up for the average person in the country because he's too afraid of angering the elites. Why should I vote for a Democrat who acts like a Republican? No more voting for the lesser of two evils for me. My money and my time will go toward trying to pressure the Party from the outside. Hopefully those of you who vote for Obama will begin to pressure him from the inside rather than just roll over and make excuses for him. Point to people like me who are jumping ship to help convince him and the Party that they are losing lifelong Democrats like me.

[Arugula Latte]

32. You voted for Obama in 2004?

:shrug:

[verges]

37. He DID give a very good speech! nt

[pmorlan1]

59. Sorry 2008

Sorry about that...I meant 2008. LOL

[dionysus]

40. uh. huh.

:rofl:

[Political Tiger]

45. Same old tired Angry Left talking points

If you are waiting for an extreme far-left president like Dennis Kucinich you'll be waiting for a long time. Try joining reality.

[martymar64]

79. You're right. We should just all learn to love Big Brother

Just accept that corporate serfdom is the wave of the future and smile happily when that whip snaps across our backs.

Welcome to Sweatshop American in the New Gilded Age!

[mkultra]

50. if we point to you, it will be to laugh

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. We will win again by another landslide and we will celebrate for eight years total. Out with the dregs of the old racist democrats, in with the new.

[HughBeaumont]

67. Siiiiiiiiigggghh . . .

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/HughBeaumont/113

If you want a progressive president, you have to want it BAD enough. Corporations and their media aren't just going to give you the power. You have to be willing to take it from them. You and, unfortunately, millions of others. That means getting off our asses. That means be willing to risk arrest. That means be willing to invade corporate board rooms and hold old duffers and their businesses hostage. Sorry, they'll ignore thousands; they do every time there's an anti-war protest.

[Cha]

69. Yeah, whatever..we can count you out then. goodbye.

[Clio the Leo]

25. six years from now...

.... we will all be racking our brains trying to figure out a way to run him a third time. Our own fringe wackos will be cherry picking the Constitution with their own theories of how he might be able to run again.

Mark my words.

[Xenotime]

72. I think you are right. He is the best person for the job.

[volvoblue]

26. the biggest problem for Obama is what I heard on CNN today

No one is talking about the segment of Howard Kurtz program where a mainstream journalist admitted that the mainstream press does not like Obama. she called it a myth the contention that the media is fans of Obama's by the conservatives.
They do not like the man.

[CakeGrrl]

29. That should not be news to anyone paying any attention to the MSM.

Anyone who knows who owns the media outlets and who signs the paychecks for these media buffoons knows why.

[Robbins]

53. True

I have always known this.Complete BS the media Is biased towards him.How much coverge has Biden received compared to Palin and he
Is the elected vice President.On MSNBC besides Ed,Countdown,and Rachel who Is fair to Obama? CNN's so called Democrats are mostly
critical of Obama.I haven't heard Begala critize Obama but Carville and even Donna bralize have.I have been saying for years there
Is no such thing as a Liberal Media In the country.And despite what some said with exception of Ed,Keith,and Rachel MSNBC Is
conservative.

[saltpoint]

33. The President might be vulnerable if a persuasive candidacy could

form from either his left or his right.

Candidates to his left or his right would need an issue, and a context, to make a valid claim to challenging Obama for the nomination. IMO the closest Democrat who might make that claim from the right is Evan Bayh and Bayh is way too smart to think he could inspire an apparatus large enough and effective enough to take on a sitting popular president.

Among the candidates to Obama's left, the field is more vivid than Bayh but there's no scenario materializing that would put any of those potential more-left candidates in a position to upend President Obama. An issue could emerge that places a challenger in a competitive position to Obama but absent that issue or context, there's no one who's likely to challenge him for the nomination.

The Pukes themselves have to worry that their nominee will have enough votes for a first-ballot victory at their convention but not any ideas to run on. Plus, of the likely contenders for their nom, I'm seeing a gaggle of halfwits and fools, thieves and yes-men, shysters and jerks, and unelectable has-beens. Some of their would-be nominees contend in all those categories.

And if they do manage to nominate a "moderate" ticket there's no stopping the Baggers from bolting and running their own ticket, draining campaign donations and volunteers. It would take just enough votes from the GOP in swing states to assure Obama's re-election.

IMO the strongest challenge to President Obama is neither from his own party, the Republican Party, or the screeching Baggers, but from an independent ticket rising after the mid-terms and entirely independently financed. Michael Bloomberg's name comes to mind, if not as part of that ticket, then certainly as its financier and power-broker.

President Obama would still be re-elected, but the Bloomberg-backed indies might finish ahead of the Pukes and put them out of business altogether.

[oviedodem]

44. Bloomberg won't run he doesn't have the stomach for it

[WI_DEM]

42. It really is funny seeing all the sky is falling people when in this environment Obama is still in

most polls polling around 50% and is the most popular national politician in the country. This despite all he has had to deal with. He will easily be re-elected.

[oviedodem]

43. It is going to be tough. Remember republicans don't need a leader

just a face.

[niceypoo]

51. Sometimes the simple notion is the most accurate

[karynnj]

46. I think Obama will be re-elected

The media is extremely biased at this point - so you hear constantly of Obama's popularity going down. I've heard it so often, usually with no numbers, that if I were not following things, I would assume that he was near where Bush was in 2008. He's not.

In spite of 2 wars, an oil spill, an economy still battered by bubble bursting in 2008 and its echoes around the world, look at his job approval. It has been close to constant since August 2009. (Today is another bad point)http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx Remember that some of the not approving is on the left. Against any Republican, he will get their votes.

No one can predict the crises that can happen before them, but one thing is predicable. President Obama will calmly deal with them. (I am arrogant enough to thing that the media call for him to show more anger is wrong. It might be better TV for them, but when many things are simultaneously exploding at the same time, I think people want a calm, steady response. In 2012, Obama will be the incumbent and his opponent will have the difficult task of showing they could provide a steady hand while they express frustration or criticism of what Obama did. That is NOT an easy thing to do.

[kjackson227]

52. Yes, Obama can and will win...

Besides the fact that Obama is doing a good job, anyone who can vehemently remember the days of Dumbya Bush and his murderous/corrupt administration would have to be out of their living minds to put another Republican in office. I would even venture to say that the Republican reps of today and tomorrow will be even worse than Bush's administration. This, in and of itself, should be enough to get Independents and Progressives excited about voting in 2012.

[CakeGrrl]

54. But if you listen to some of the comments around here lately

Not only can some people apparently not remember how bad the Bush administration was, they seem to think we're just getting more of the same, to the extent that they're not going to vote, at least for Obama, in 2012.

I don't know what their alternative plans are, but not even the lesson of running against an incumbent Dem in the past seems to have been learned.

The question of why Dems implode keeps kicking around. Well, it could be that so many are so adamant about avoiding "lockstep" support that they'll splinter on principle. Again. And then they'll wonder how in hell Republicans could have taken back the reins of power when their polices are so horrendous. Again.

[Freddie Stubbs]

55. Depends on who the Republican run and how the economy is doing

Any by economy, I mean the job market.

[AtomicKitten]

56. They've got nothing. Obama should win comfortably. nt

[ShadowLiberal]

60. Clinton lost both houses of congress after 2 years, yet won reelection in a landslide

The political environment will change by 2012, it's likely for example that the bad economy will no longer be an issue, as we'll likely be out of the recession by then, which will help Obama.

[saltpoint]

61. And the GOP really and truly does not have a candidate.

They may have to dig up Reagan and hang his bones from the back of a train and roll through the country reminding voters how dear he was to their hearts.

Apart from that option, they're stuck with the field they have, and it don't look good.

[Politics_Guy27]

62. Right now, he'd lose to any Republican in a landslide defeat

As Reagan would have lost in 1982, and Clinton in 1994. As Clinton/Reagan showed, however, elections come 4 years into an administration not 2.

[Phoonzang]

73. Agreed. nt

[Blue-Jay]

74. Bullshit.

[Lorien]

85. Nonsense. America has had enough of the Selfservatives

weather they are in the GOP or DLC, the party of greed is no longer embraced by anyone with open eyes.

[JCMach1]

63. they will slowly come to realize the only one who can unite their mess is: JEBtm

However, brand Bush will not roll-out unless victory is a slam dunk in 2012.

Don't be shocked if you end up with something like Romney/Bush or Some other idiot/Bush... with the idea it would be okay to lose as VP and come back in 2016.

[AlinPA]

76. IMO, John Thune will be in the running and will give Palin a fight. nt

[old mark]

64. I just came from posting on a conservative site on a "who can beat Obama in '12" thread...

They don't care who wins so long as it's not Obama. They have NO ONE on the right who has the appeal to seriously challenge Obama in '12, which means 4 more years of DINO's...
I am hoping we will find a few less conservative Democrats in the future, but I don't see many out there.


mark

[mikekohr]

66. President Obama will win by 6 to 7%, and take 312 to 335 electorial votes

unless the Republican nominee is Palin. In a race against the 1/2 term Alaskan chillbilly the President will win by 9 to 12% and take 360+ electorial votes.

mike kohr

[Politics_Guy27]

68. I think you're absolutely correct-I'm thinking 315 EVs or so for the prez myself

N/T

[Ganja Ninja]

80. If it all hinges on my vote then he's in trouble. n/t

[NorthCarolina]

82. If he has a Liberal/Progressive challenger in the primaries, then I would say probably not. eom