If Nikki Haley wins, Sarah Palin will be the 2012 GOP nominee

Politics_Guy25

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Thu Jun-10-10 12:10 AM
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If Nikki Haley wins, Sarah Palin will be the 2012 GOP nominee

Edited on Thu Jun-10-10 12:18 AM by Politics_Guy25

This is fascinating from MSNBC.com's first read:

*** Nikki Haley and 2012: The result last night with the biggest impact on 2012 was Nikki Haley's 49% in South Carolina’s GOP gubernatorial primary -- more than double the percentage her closest competitor (Gresham Barrett) received. Haley fell short of avoiding a June 22 run-off against Barrett, but she heads into that contest in a very strong position. As First Readers know well, South Carolina plays a crucial role in GOP presidential nomination battles; in fact, going back to 1980, every winner of the South Carolina presidential primary has gone on to capture the GOP nomination. And given that Haley was endorsed by both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it might be difficult for Haley to avoid what Mark Sanford was able to do in 2008: stay neutral. Also, given that Haley is perhaps the most conservative candidate in the entire GOP gubernatorial field -- she has supported calls for Lindsey Graham’s censure -- she could very well push the 2012 Republican field to the right.

So...she was endorsed BOTH by Palin and Romney. I don't mean this to be offensive but I can imagine that she would be excited about a female candidate possibly being the GOP nominee and would be very tempted to endorse Palin but Romney's assistance may leave her conflicted.

HOWEVER, should she endorse Palin, that would pretty much lock up the S.C. 2012 GOP primary for Sarah Palin and the winner of the S.C. primary has not lost the GOP nomination since 1980. Ergo, Tampa Bay will see the crowning of "Sarah from Alaska" in August 2012.

This is a fascinating pickup from MSNBC. For those of you who don't think Palin will be the nominee in 2012, how can you not? The GOP is nominating all of her preferred candidates in 2010. Do you think they are really going to turn away from her in 2012? Ummm...no. And when the 'mean old GOP men" gang up on "our girl Sarah", there will be a backlash among the GOP's new teabagger extremist base the likes of which has rarely been seen. Do you really think that the GOP base will go for a "mormon flip-flopper" like Romney or Mike Huckabee, who the economic conservatives distrust and did in 2008? I think not. Sarah is the only logical nominee at this point.

All of this can be deduced because we just found out who has the inside track to win the 2012 GOP primary in S.C. I'm not trying to be a know-it-all or something. I feel like I've just made a discovery. lol. That's all.

The only way Sarah is not the GOP nominee now is if Haley endorses someone else. I doubt a neutral stance would dissuade S.C. voters from going to her.

That all said, Sarah will need to win Iowa for this to come to fruition. No way does NH go for her in a million years. Then, it will depend which state goes first, S.C. or FL. One can imagine if the S.C. primary is just 2 days before the FL primary like it was for the GOP in 2008, that Palin may even get enough of a bounce from her critical victory to perform extremely decently in Florida and prevent a debacle for her there.

This is very good news for President Obama. She runs 15-20 points behind right now and is despised by the general public. Also, she will repulse Florida among other states.

P.S.: If the democratic field is super-strong and there's a good chance they are taking Haley down, I apologize for the premptive crowning but given that S.C never goes Dem at the presidential level, I can't see it in a political climate like 2010.