WH pollster's Memo on Weakened Republican Image

[Pirate Smile]

Details: Benenson Memo on Weakened Republican Image

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Joel Benenson
DATE: August 12, 2010
RE: Weakened Republican Image

· Today's NBC/Wall St. Journal poll underscores the fact that with fewer than 90 days until the mid-term elections, the Republican Party's standing is at one of its lowest points ever and its competitive position vs. the Democrats looks much as it did in the summers of 1998 and 2002, neither of which were “wave” elections.

· The NBC/WSJ poll shows that not only is the Republican Party's image at its lowest point ever in their polling, their ratings are still lower than Democrats and their party image has worsened much more than the Democrats when compared with the last mid-term elections in 2006.

· Only 24% of Americans gave the Republicans a positive rating while 46% were negative for a net of -22 (28% were neutral). This positive rating is not only a historic low, it is down 9 points since May – just three months ago.

· In addition, in July of 2006, a year in which Republicans lost 30 seats, their rating stood at 32% positive, 39% negative for only a -7 net rating or a change in the net rating of -15. During the same period the Democratic rating slipped only slightly by a net of -4 points from 32/39 in July 2006 to 33/44 today.

· This overall outlook is also consistent with an ABC/Washington Post poll from a month ago (7/13/10) that showed Americans' confidence in Republicans in Congress to make “the right decisions for the country's future” lagging behind Democrats:

o 73% say they are not confident in Republicans in Congress while 26% say they are, for a net negative confidence rating of -47 points.
o Democrats in Congress are at 32% confident (6 points higher than the GOP) and 67% who say they are not confident (6 points lower than the GOP), for a net confidence rating of -35, which is 12 points better than the Congressional Republicans.

· When asked in the NBC/WSJ poll whether they prefer Democratic or Republican control of Congress after the November elections, 43% said Democrats and 42% said Republicans. While Democrats had a 10-point margin in 2006 when they gained 31 seats, the previous two mid-terms also showed a deadlocked preference in the summers of 1998 and 2002 in the NBC/WSJ polls. In both of those elections, the gains were only in single digits: 5 seats for the Democrats in 1998 and 8 seats for the Republicans in 2002.

· In addition, a Pew poll from early July showed that Republicans have a significant image deficit among Americans on the question of which party is “more concerned about people like me.” In that survey of 1800 Americans, 50% said Democrats were more concerned about people like them while only 34% said Republicans were.

http://thepage.time.com/details-benenson-memo-on-weakened-republican-image/

[damntexdem]

1. So when do I get my new pony?

Well, who knows, perhaps in early November. ;-)

[Pirate Smile]

3. I think all Dems should consider Republicans not winning control of the House (or Senate) a pony.

I want that pony this November. :)

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. How is Fox going to spin this?

[tridim]

5. Probably by ignoring it.

It's what they always do with bad news for their team.

[Pirate Smile]

6. They'll ignore it. It's the Fox way.

[The Traveler]

4. The implication is that this election is not lost

The deciding factor, really, will be turnout ... who suits up and shows up to vote. It is not too late for the Dem leadership to rally their people ... but they will have to show more backbone than they have to date. And in any rate, is not better to go down swinging than to hide in the corner whimpering about the unfairness of it all? I really wish Howard Dean was back on the job ...

Trav

[activa8tr]

8. Say that again..... I plan to vote early and often.

Actually, this is not funny. I will vote, and I hope my foolish brother in law who didn't vote against Scott Brown in Mass because he didn't see the need will show up, too.

Of course he lives in a Congressional district in Mass where there is no serious Republican running. But he should vote this time.

[Pirate Smile]

10. The fact that Plouffe is on the job should give people a little confidence that a lot of the people

who showed up to vote in 2008 (but everyone assumes will skip voting this year) just may get to the polls in November (or vote by absentee). He's quiet but he's working behind the scenes and they had a lot of info and data about who their voters were.

I've heard pundits (Fineman) say that Obama hadn't given his young voters anything. I think that is a bunch of crap in particular because of the student loan reform and the fact that they can stay on their parents insurance until 26. Those are specific benefits aimed at them.

[The Traveler]

15. Thanks for reminding me of that

Plouffe is a master strategist, but he is not a front man. We need one of those right now ... still, it is good to be reminded that he is not sitting idle.

[NC_Nurse]

7. Well, if they could get Gibbs to shut up it might help too.

Just sayin'.

[activa8tr]

9. Gibbs should resign September 1, and they should get a hot looking

super "professional" liberal woman to take over for him.

I always thought that was not the right job for him, since day 1.

[NC_Nurse]

11. Sounds good to me.

[pscot]

12. I think their image, as a bunch of racist, mean-spirited, lying

fascist-enabling assholes is pretty much tamper proof

[rasputin1952]

13. Regardless of party, you cannot win an election by using...

"no" as 3/4 of your platform, (the other 1/4 consists of nothing but blocking legislation).

I don''t follow polls all that much, I gauge what's going on locally, and in my Red heavy state, (NE), the R's cannot understand why their party fell into the toile so quickly.

These idiots lost this election a long time ago, most incumbents will be re-elected, and the R's should lose 5-6 seats in the House, most likely lose 2 in the Senate.

[tblue37]

14. Enthusiasm makes the difference in a midterm election.

Whether people like Dems or Repubs better isn't the issue. The issue is whether those who prefer Repubs go to the polls in greater numbers than do those who prefer Dems. I am afraid that there might be just such an enthusiasm gap in November, though I am hoping against hope that there will not be.

[Arkana]

16. Just because a person isn't enthusiastic about voting

does not mean they will not vote.

I know plenty of older folks around here who would answer in the negative if they were asked "Are you enthused about voting this year?", but they'll be damned if they don't get to the polls and vote on Election Day--and they all vote D.

[704wipes]

17. Sounds like a good year to run as a socialist, actually

not that anyone will