"Did Blumenthal's Lead Really Evaporate?" Answer: Perhaps not.

[Clio the Leo]

In short ... this is from the same polling firm that showed Gillibrand and Quomo in trouble a few weeks ago, only to be followed by other polls that contradicted their claim. Y'all need to put a big old star beside any future Quinnipiac polling data from here on out.

First Read: "The political world is buzzing this morning over a new Quinnipiac poll that shows Richard Blumenthal leading Linda McMahon in Connecticut's Senate race by just three points among likely voters, 49%-46%. But here's a word of caution about the poll: It's the latest Quinnipiac likely voter survey to show incredible GOP performance -- Rob Portman up 20 points in Ohio, John Kasich ahead 17 points in the Buckeye State, and Carl Paladino down just six points in New York (with Marist and Siena showing much bigger leads for Andrew Cuomo). Indeed, the Blumenthal campaign has released its own poll showing Blumenthal up by 12 points among likelies, 52%-40%. So it's one of two things: Either Quinnipiac is nailing what the general-election environment is looking like (which will be a historic day for the GOP), or its likely voter screen is too tight (and it's missing a lot of Democratic votes). We'll find out who's right exactly five weeks from today."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/28/did_blumenthals_lead_really_evaporate.html

[Kdillard]

1. Yep we will see who is right come election day..

[FBaggins]

2. Doubting Quinnipiac doesn't change the fact that his lead has evaporated.

There are only two firms regularly polling there and they both say the same thing. We can question whether his lead is five points or perhaps ten... but the 30-40 point leads he had when Dodd dropped out have clearly evaporated.

this is from the same polling firm that showed Gillibrand and Quomo in trouble a few weeks ago, only to be followed by other polls that contradicted their claim.

Quinnipiac is clearly a better polling organization than Siena is (the only poll that "contradicted" their Gillibrand "claim"), and Survey USA showed the race as even tighter than Quinnipiac that same day. How can you simultaneously doubt that (SUSA) poll while relying on it to debunk the Quinnipiac poll in the Gov race?