Here are the Senate seats I see the Repubs winning...

[kentuck]

Best bets are Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana.

They have a chance to win Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

They could lose two or three seats, such as Alaska, Louisiana, and Kentucky.

Best bets are that Democrats will hold on to California, Colorado, Washington, and Delaware.

Best longshots for Democrats are Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Blanche Lincoln will most likely lose Arkansas. With Byron Dorgan and Evan Bayh retiring, Republicans are most likely to pick up those seats also.

Joe Sestak has a good chance at winning Pennsylvania. Reid and Feingold have a chance to win in Nevada and Wisconsin as well. If the Democrats were to lose all three of those seats, that would put them at a minus -6 seats.

But the Republicans could lose a couple of seats they are now counting in their plus column. They could lose in Alaska. They could lose in Kentucky if Conway continues to attack Rand Paul on his $2000 Medicare deductible. Also, they could lose a seat like Vitter's?

At the present time, the best-case scenario for the Republicans is a gain of 6 or 7 seats. That would put them at 47 or 48 seats in the Senate and still in the minority.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. why are we talking about them?

[Psephos]

2. Why wouldn't we? n/t

[Rosa Luxemburg]

3. they are a dying breed

[kentuck]

4. And they are ugly and stupid, too...

???

[Rosa Luxemburg]

13. and wear diapers

[pinto]

5. The buzz here in CA - Boxer is a lock.

Reid and Feingold both seem to be gaining ground, from what I read. :hi:

[kentuck]

6. I think Jerry doing well helps Boxer...

and vice-versa. I think they will both win.

If Reid and Feingold win their races, that's the end of Republican dreams of taking the Senate.

[pinto]

7. Agree, all around. Brown's got political legs here, as does Boxer.

Just wish we could get 3 more Dem seats at the state level. We're gridlocked with a 2/3 requirement on fiscal actions. (Another Jarvis / Prop 13 albatross for CA.)

[golfguru]

15. Yes, senator Boxer it will be, forget Madam Boxer.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

17. Boxer should win now that people are seeing through the fired HP CEO

[elocs]

8. With Feingold, don't forget that over the past nearly 18 years that he has met with thousands

of people here in Wisconsin, regularly having meetings all over the state. These are people who know and trust him and are likely not well represented in the polls. If they show up to vote I would not be surprised to see them choose Feingold.

Feingold should win the admiration of all Democrats for his lone vote against the original Patriot Act when it would have been very easy to go along with the crowd. My hope is that in the end the voters will reward such honesty and integrity.

[damonm]

9. Bear in mind that Robin Carnahan in MO has a good shot...

At picking up Kit Bond's seat as he retires - there's a red seat going blue...

[global1]

10. What About Illinois? I'm Hearing Kirk (R) Is Running Well.......

will we lose Obama's old seat? I hear the Obama's - both the President and the First Lady will be campaigning more in Chicago and Illinois before Nov.

[book_worm]

11. Where do you hear that? the polls are very close in IL

[book_worm]

12. You forgot West Virginia--which right now is leaning Republican

I wouldn't rule out Reid winning in Nevada. The latest Time/CNN poll indicates that Reid is behind by 2 with the mythical "likely" voters but is up by 11 among all registered voters. It's going to come down to GOTV and Obama is going to NV right before the election for a GOTV rally for Reid in Las Vegas.

I agree that Arkansas, North Dakota and Indiana are likely lost. I think that Missouri is going that way, especially since the DSCC just cut down on its ad buy in MO.

I don't count Feingold out in WI--yet. They had their first debate tonight and Russ did well, we will see if it gets any traction.

I think the only GOP seat that the Dems have a realistic chance to win in the senate race as of right now is Kentucky. Conway is raising lots of money and really tying Paul to cutting Medicare. I don't think Fisher will pull it out in Ohio--but Strickland is coming on strong in the Governor's race.

I don't know if Sestak has a "good chance" to win in PA since the average shows him behind by high single digits, but he may have a fair chance of pulling an upset.

Obama's seat in IL is one of the closest races with most polls showing Kirk up by 2 or 3 points, and Dems really should be going out to get this won. I hope that Obama will do more than raise money for the Dem--he should hold a big gotv rally in Chicago.

[golfguru]

14. In Washington Rossi is now leading Murray in polls/

[Rosa Luxemburg]

16. Lincoln won't lose. Vitter the diaper should go down!

how s a man like that allowed to represent people?

[FBaggins]

18. Have you seen video of Boozman with a goat?

Because short of that... Lincoln most certainly will lose.

Heck... as long as the goat is female he still has at least an 80% chance.

[Ter]

21. It might make him more popular in AK

:)

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

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[Mefistofeles]

20. What makes you so confident about Colorado?

?

[Ter]

22. You at like them gaining 7 seats is no big deal

We can't even pass any real legislation with them holding 41 seats. Imagine them with 48!

[MessiahRp]

23. 48 + Lieberman + Ben Nelson = Republican Agenda for 4 years

Count on it.