Louisiana redistricting worries potential Republican candidates for House seat

[ccharles000]

Uncertainty about Louisiana’s redistricting process has potential Republican candidates thinking twice about running for Rep. Charlie Melancon’s (D-La.) seat.

When Melancon announced his Senate bid, there was early enthusiasm in the GOP about an easy pickup in Louisiana’s 3rd district.

But the state is expected to lose a House seat after the 2010 census, and most observers think it’s the 3rd district that will suffer.

Redistricting in Louisiana is a complicated, contentious process that is frequently subject to court challenges. As it stands now, committees in the state House and Senate will draw up a plan after the 2010 census is complete. That plan will then have to be passed by the full State Legislature.

“Most people think the 3rd will get short shrift,” said Pearson Cross, a professor at the University of Louisiana.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/71565-la-redistricting-worries-potential-house-candidates

[last_texas_dem]

1. Hopefully the Democratic strategist is correct and the seat will stay in Democratic hands

That is, if it isn't essentially redistricted out of existence altogether. You'd think that the state house Democrats would be able to protect LA's only Democratic seat in the Congressional delegation (perhaps Cao's strongly Democratic seat will at least fall to the D's in '10) since they have a narrow margin in the state House (though the Speaker is a Repug) and a fairly healthy one in the state Senate, but I wouldn't be surprised if a number of these "Dems" are to the right of the Blue Dogs, as this tends to be the case in many southern state legislatures.

Oh well, even if things don't go well in the 3rd district, it would be worth it if Melancon could actually knock Diaper Dave out of his Senate seat. The way things have gone in Louisiana politics over the last few years, though, I'm certainly not getting my hopes up...