PPPpolls: "Strickland's gained 9 points since our last poll by bringing the base home" It's 49%-48%

[Pirate Smile]

@ppppolls: Strickland's gained 9 points since our last poll by bringing the base home: http://tinyurl.com/26uumpz

Saturday, October 30, 2010
Ohio Gov Tight

The Ohio Governor's race is looking like it could go either way three days out from the election. Ted Strickland has made a huge comeback in the final months of the campaign and now trails John Kasich only 49-48. PPP's most recent previous poll, in late August, had found Strickland trailing by 10 points.

What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home. He's now winning 87% of the Democratic vote, up from only 78% in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they'll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party's voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer.

Even though Strickland has closed in the enthusiasm gap is still a significant issue for Democratic prospects in the state. Those saying they're likely to vote this year report having supported John McCain by 3 points in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 4 point victory in the state last time. That suggests there are still a lot of Democratic voters in Ohio planning to sit at home this year- if the final electorate ends up being even just a point or two more Democratic than we're anticipating it could end up being enough to put Strickland over the top.

If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents. He has an 18 point lead with them at 56-38.

Even though he's made up a lot of ground in the last couple months Strickland remains a pretty unpopular Governor. Only 41% of voters say they approve of the job he's doing while 50% disapprove. Usually those kinds of numbers would pretty much guarantee a loss for an incumbent. But Ohio voters' attitude towards Kasich, as it has been throughout most of the cycle, is 'meh.' 43% of voters like him and 42% of voters don't. That's giving Strickland room to pick up support from some voters who aren't that enthralled with the job he's done.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/ohio-gov-tight.html

[mvd]

1. K&R

for good news.

[tridim]

2. Anticipating more stories like this during the next two days.

Let's get em!

[Pirate Smile]

7. Did you see these:

Cook Report: No GOP Senate Takeover (Updated)
ShareNew 0by fou
Sat Oct 30, 2010 at 05:39:50 PM PDT
Per TPM:

A pair of tweets from Hotline's Jeremy Jacobs:

"Cook Political moves Sen. from GOP picking up 7-9 to 6-8. Good news for Dems. Odds of GOP winning maj. "non-existent," according to Cook."

"Cook says #WASEN, #CASEN and #WVSEN are breaking toward Dems."

Read that again. Three key races are breaking towards Democrats! That means one thing and one thing only: our GOTV efforts are working! Additionally, we're holding our own in early voting in a number of key races as has been reported on the front page and elsewhere.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/30/915247/-Cook-Report:-No-GOP-Senate-Takeover-(Updated)

AND

Pollster.com drops likelihood of #GOP House takeover from 80% to 71% in just two days.

[impik]

3. All those who run away from the president will be very very sorry

[Pirate Smile]

5. Boxer's final ad is all Obama:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRzTQoduGpg&feature=player_embedded

Barbara Boxer Releases Ad Starring President Obama (VIDEO)
By Steve Peoples | October 30, 2010 5:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Barbara Boxer isn't running away from President Barack Obama.

In what may be her last television advertisement of what has been an intense contest against Republican Senate nominee Carly Fiorina, Boxer (D) offers California voters a 30-spot featuring a fired-up President alone on stage.

"I'm optimistic because I know there's people like you out there, and I know there are people like Barbara Boxer in the Senate who's fighting to change this country for the better," the President says as an unseen crowd cheers. The footage is from an Obama-Boxer rally.

"In the final stretch of the campaign, we're reminding voters about the importance of voting in this election. President Obama energized millions of voters to get engaged and this ad will help us get out the vote on Tuesday," said Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski, in a statement that accompanied the release of the new ad.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/barbara-boxer-releases-ad-star.html

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. This is great news!!

[UrbScotty]

6. Go Ted!

From someone in Michigan, here's hoping for a come-from-behind win for Strickland!