A reminder: it's the economy, stupid

[liberalpragmatist]

It's not yet Election Night, and we'll have to see how the races turn out. I wouldn't be shocked by better-than-expected results -- or far worse than expected. But there is going to be a lot of spin and many, many post-mortems. You'll see them all over DU and the blogosphere. And all over cable news. And the print media. It will be alternately blamed on Obama "not being bipartisan and centrist enough," or on Obama "not being progressive enough." It'll be about how "he's too elitist," or how Dems in Congress "spent too much," or, alternately, had a "poor message."

Most of it is going to be bullshit.

There are two big factors driving these results. The first - and by far the biggest - is the economy. We're at near-10% unemployment, and while we're growing, growth is stalled and so slow that the jobs numbers aren't improving. That alone would be devastating.

Add to that the fact that in both '06 and '08, Democrats took a lot of basically Republican districts in the House. And that came on top of a Democratic caucus that already included dozens of Democrats elected in districts George W. Bush carried in '04 and '00. So even absent poor economic conditions, we were likely to lose 20 or so seats, since midterms nearly always go against the party in power.

I'm not dismissing more legitimate policy--based arguments against the Obama Administration. While they've done a lot of good, 10% unemployment is still too high, and it's conceivable that a mix of better policies - larger stimulus, not reappointing Bernanke, more aggressive action on housing and foreclosure - would have brought unemployment lower. But that being said, if you take into account the political constraints, it's unlikely we could have gotten stimulus large enough to reduce unemployment to normal levels. We're in the midst of a massive financial crisis, and examples from other countries illustrate that growth rates are always DISMAL following financial crises, because it takes years for businesses and individuals to clear debt and restore investment and consumption. Even if policy from the Obama WH had been closer-to-ideal, at best, we might have had something like 8% unemployment rather than 9.6%, and though that's far better than what we have, it's still far from normal. Much of the Rust Belt would still have unemployment rates at over 10%, meaning we'd be looking at significant political hurt.

I think what is surprising to a lot of observers of politics is that given how thoroughly Republicans were repudiated in the last two cycles, most expected the public wouldn't flip so quickly. But any casual look at history shows that the political fortunes change on a dime. In 1946, for example, the Republicans won 55 House seats and 12 Senate seats, recapturing Congress. Yet two years later, they unexpectedly failed to defeat Truman, but wound up LOSING over 70 seats to the Democrats in the House and 9 in the Senate, giving Democrats back the majority.

It's also worth pointing to political science models. Most have long predicted Republican gains of 40-50 seats based on the unemployment numbers and growth rates alone, not even taking into account presidential approval ratings or campaigns. As political scientists always try to remind pundits (who never listen), election results broadly are determined by structural factors. What the cable talk shows - and frankly, most political blogs, left AND right - deal with is typically inconsequential to electoral outcomes. These are controversies that people who breathe politics are absorbed by but which most ordinary people pay little or no attention to. People vote their pocket-book and if they're otherwise happy, they have a status quo bias. That drives most elections.

In short: people have short memories. We inherited a deeply poisoned chalice, and the goose was cooked before we even took power.

We've survived worse. Buck up, and let's not all join a circular firing squad: it's likely on Tuesday we're going to have to face off with our real political enemies, and we're going to need all the unity and forbearance we can muster.

[Politics_Guy25]

1. Strong K and R-n/t

[DJ13]

2. People honestly expected real change, they were disappointed

More coddling of the wealthy wasnt exactly what they were expecting.

[readmoreoften]

4. +1

[cutlassmama]

3. Very true. Hope every Liberal gets out there and votes.