Quinnipiac '12 Poll: Obama tied or leading all major GOP candidates

[WI_DEM]

(Not bad considering all the pundits who say that '10 was such a huge set-back for Obama. It's certainly not like Ronald Reagan running 8-points behind Walter Mondale in the Jan 1983 Gallup Poll) If Obama is tied or leading all the major republicans now and the economy continues to improve he will be in a strong position in 2012):

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/22/palin_runs_worst_against_obama.html


Palin Runs Worst Against Obama
Although Sarah Palin thinks she could beat President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, a new Quinnipiac poll finds the president leading a potential match up by eight points, 48% to 40%.

In other trial heats, Mitt Romney edges Obama, 45% to 44%, while the president edges Mike Huckabee, 46% to 44%, and beats Mitch Daniels (R), 46% to 36%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: "At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama. Daniels is essentially a generic Republican because of his anonymity to most voters. Obama only gets 45% against him while he gets 48% against Ms. Palin. She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion."

Key finding: Palin is viewed the most negatively by the American people of the possible Republican candidates in 2012. She is viewed unfavorably by 51% of voters and favorably by 36%.

[mikekohr]

1. That 36% of all voters is the batshit crazy base of the Republican Party

[grahamhgreen]

2. If O can take a sharp turn to the FDR side, he will sweep, if not, he will lose to

a vegetable.

[nevergiveup]

3. If Obama doesn't win independents

he will be in big trouble. How does a "sharp turn to the FDR side" help him with independents? There is a balance necessary and it is a tough one especially in this political environment.

[grahamhgreen]

12. Independents want us out of Iraqistan, Medicare for All, beefed up SS, taxes on the wealthy, etc.

[Hawkowl]

20. Independents are not monolithic

All independents are not middle of the road. Obama won last time by energizing turnout of first time voters. He lost every demographic of the white vote over 30. He needs to energize the traditional democratic base and the youth vote. Most independents are followers not leaders and they follow the trend. It's all about turn out and you get turnout by catering to your base of leftist fanatics who will turn out others. Unions, the gay vote, minorities, progressives, greens. Southern whites and elderly whites hate Obama. Rethuglicans hate him. If he waters down his message trying to woo those who hate him, he'll lose, but he might get them to hate him a teeny tiny less.

[kentuck]

4. Polls are meaningless at this time..

Too much stuff can happen between now and then.

[Hawkowl]

21. Agreed, also

These are popular vote polls. It is the all important electoral vote we should be worried about. Right now, Florida and Ohio look terrible. Pennsylvania and West Virginia are shaky. Even Wisconsin and Michigan are dubious.

Obama is in shit up to his eyeballs.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. My dad thinks Romney is the one to watch for in 2012

particularly if the economy is still struggling though, of course, he'd still have to get through the Republican primaries and, as I recall, he didn't do so well last go around. Plus, his Mormonism is likely to be a problem with the xtian fundies.
Daniels is considered a "dark horse" contender due to his general anonymity but his more moderate social views (he called for a "truce" on social issues) will also make it difficult for him to make it through the primaries unless the Republican primary electorate becomes more moderate by 2012 (doubtful). Plus, he has "bush stain", which might makes things more difficult for him as well. :shrug:

Pretty much all of the other potential candidates have baggage and/or personality problems (or both) that's going to make it difficult for them to win in a general election against President Obama IMHO. Frankly, unless Obama really stumbles badly over the next two years and his poll numbers are seriously sagging by then, I think he'll be the stronger candidate no matter what and I don't think that he will lose to anybody in 2012 IMHO. Once the electorate gets to contrast President Obama with an actual Republican candidate and especially if the Republican Tea Party overreaches in Congress, I think that most people will pull the lever for him.

Honestly, once the debates get started, who is going to be able to outmaneuver/out-perform our "Professor President"? Which candidate(s) are going to be able to appeal to the Republican Tea Party AND the general electorate? I can't think of one......yet.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

6. He only beats her by 8 points??? That's doesn't sound too reassuring! n/t

[truebrit71]

7. My thoughts exactly...in fact, none of those numbers are too good..

.....

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. Agreed. 8 points is scary.

Romney is beating him and some unknowns are way too close considering that no one has even announced their candidacy.

[bigwillq]

9. McCain got 45 percent

So it's realistic to think that at least that percentage would favor the Republican candidate, no matter who it is.

[Ter]

19. One difference is this is a poll two years before the election against an incumbent

They haven't even announced they are candidates yet and already they are polling in the 40's. IMO they all have nowhere to go but up. Also, an incumbent polling under 50% against every unannounced candidate is very disturbing.

[bigdarryl]

10. you guys need to stop looking at these bullshit polls that mean nothing Obama has already won

reelection based on the key system that is 95% accurate unless the democrats screaming about a primary challenge get there way and FUCK things up for Obama guaranteeing his lost on key 2 loosing the election to ANY Republican running including Palin http://american.edu/media/news/20100712_Lichtman_Predicts_Obama_Wins_Reelection_2012.cfm

[Top Cat]

13. Thanks Big Darryl... Well said.

[n2doc]

14. I gotta bookmark this for Nov 2012

We shall see just how accurate it is. For now, I don't see Obama winning any of the southern states, including Florida. And Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa are doubtful against a non-mormon, non-Palin repub. The economy is going to have to improve for that to change.

[mandy11]

11. Why does your title say he is tied or winning when Romney is ahead?

As always 2012 will be about the electoral college. I think it is possible that obama may handily win the popular vote, but lose the election.
Not like 2000 with everything hinging on one close state. I see a multi-million popular vote win, but an e-c loss as very probable.

[karynnj]

15. These are more impressive than they look.

Obama has been attacked daily for over 3 years and he is still leading all of them (except Romney who is a point ahead.) Romney has strong name recognition and he has ha no negative press since 2008, because he has done nothing.

[Radical Activist]

16. Again with the polls? Already? Polls this far in advance mean NOTHING.

Even polls two months before an election rarely match the result. Do you work for a polling company? Why do you post so many?

[pnorman]

17. See this DU thread on the polls in Virginia"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9610686 That's for Virginia, not California!

I had a few choice words planned for the Anyone_But_Obama crowd. But in the spirit of civility here on DU I swallowed them (gulp!)

[polichick]

18. Polls mean little right before election - who cares what they say now? nt