What are your 2011 predictions

[ProSense]

for average GDP, monthly job growth and the unemployment rate?

My predictions...

GDP: 4

Jobs: 200,000

Unemployment rate: 9.1

[tekisui]

1. You're predicting 9.1% unemployment for the year?

As in, it will be 9.1 at the end of next year? That is bleak and depressing.

[ProSense]

2. Yes, I

was being extremely cautious. It could be lower.

What do you see as upbeat and realistic?

[democrat2thecore]

17. I think you're about right.

Did you see the big "jobs" news today was the announcement by "Dollar General" stores that they're hiring 6,000 people? That's what passes for jobs in the United States of America. Once the most powerful manufacturing giant in the world. Sad.

[golfguru]

18. We can ship manufacturing jobs to China

Let them do the boring manufacturing jobs. That activity requires
too many power plants and causes air pollution and toxic waste.

I read somewhere China is building one new coal power plant every week.
We have lots of coal here which we can sell them.

[democrat2thecore]

19. And we can all work at Dollar General?

Starbucks? Google? Yahoo? Wal-Mart? Home Depot? How can a country that doesn't make anything, with very little to export in a few years, survive?
Oh, how the mighty fall. With the help of people who never knew America at its greatest.

[golfguru]

22. I was being sarcastic

There are only 4 main wealth creators...manufacturing, mining, agriculture and creation
of intellectual property (includes new pharmaceuticals, inventions, market demand
software etc). Every other activity is overhead dependent on basic wealth creators.

So if we keep losing manufacturing, coal & oil production then we are on path to be
poorer.

[jtuck004]

23. Dollar General announces 625 new stores, 6000 new employees in 2011

No, I'm not kidding...

I wonder how many of those will be taken up by ex-manufacturing workers? There's change you can believe in.

[golfguru]

26. Yes siree they are creating lots of Dollar General jobs

most of them barely minimum wage I am sure.
And saved tons of public sector jobs with the Trillion dollar stimulus.
For how long no one can tell.

[dmallind]

3. pretty close really. Might be tempted to go 8.8 U3

job creation may not be the main reason - workforce exits due to retirement are set to rise.

[bluestateguy]

4. Predictions for December 31, 2011

4th Quarter GDP: 4.5%

Unemployment: 8.5%

Obama approval rating: 51%

[SpiralHawk]

5. "Republicon occultism will florish." - Ronald Reagan's Dead Republicon Astrologer*

"Behind closed doors, of course. Smirk."

- Ronald Reagan's Dead Republicon Astrologer*


* Courageously channeled by the intrepid SH from the vast netherworld of darkside republicon occultism. Don't try this at home, kids.

[Vincardog]

6. Considering REAL unemployment is 20% now you have a rosy view

[ProSense]

7. Ah, the U6

The U6 was extremely high in the 1990s after it launched too. It's at about 17 percent currently.

The number in the OP is U3.

[mtnsnake]

8. My prediction is unemployment remains the same or worse for the next year & then improves slightly

I think the GDP will improve slightly, maybe a few tenths of a point over the next year.

Overall I think the outlook is going to continue to be gloomy for quite a while, mostly thanks to Bush, his wars, and the long term after-effects of Reaganomics that have finally caught up to us and slapped us in the face with a harsh dose of reality.

Plus, gold and silver are hitting new records all the time, and I don't think that bodes well for our future economic outlook. I hate to be this gloomy, but we've been spoiled for too many years, we waste way too much, we borrow too much, we don't live within our means, and it's finally catching up to us. Who knows for how long it's gonna take, but it's gonna take a while, I think, to dig ourselves out of this.

[Inchworm]

9. oops - I need to read harder

:blush:

EDIT: missed the point :rofl:

[BlueJac]

10. Gas prices go to $4.00 by mid summer

[ProSense]

11. Peak oil

Krugman

<....>

And those supplies aren’t keeping pace. Conventional oil production has been flat for four years; in that sense, at least, peak oil has arrived. True, alternative sources, like oil from Canada’s tar sands, have continued to grow. But these alternative sources come at relatively high cost, both monetary and environmental.

Also, over the past year, extreme weather — especially severe heat and drought in some important agricultural regions — played an important role in driving up food prices. And, yes, there’s every reason to believe that climate change is making such weather episodes more common.

So what are the implications of the recent rise in commodity prices? It is, as I said, a sign that we’re living in a finite world, one in which resource constraints are becoming increasingly binding. This won’t bring an end to economic growth, let alone a descent into Mad Max-style collapse. It will require that we gradually change the way we live, adapting our economy and our lifestyles to the reality of more expensive resources.

But that’s for the future. Right now, rising commodity prices are basically the result of global recovery. They have no bearing, one way or another, on U.S. monetary policy. For this is a global story; at a fundamental level, it’s not about us.

Any predictions related to the OP?

[Jack Bone]

12. The Chicago Bears win the Super Bowl nt.

[ProSense]

13. Thanks.

It's amazing how few responses there are to the actual OP.

[TexasProgresive]

14. My prediction-87.624% of predictions will be wrong. n/t

[BeyondGeography]

15. One of the most fucked up years ever

Which is what I say every year.

[verges]

16. and you're usually right. nt

[Tx4obama]

20. OT

My 2011/MMXI Predictions:

1) The Dream Act will pass the Senate & House by the end of the year.

2) The Senate 'will' tweek the filibuster and the secret hold rules on the first day of the 112th Congress (with 52 'yes' votes) - and the GOP & Teaparty will have a $hitFit.

3) President Obama will have the opportunity to appoint his THIRD U.S. Supreme Court Justice - and the nominee will be confirmed in August.

Originally posted here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x100107

p.s. I reposted here because my original thread didn't get much traffic ;( LOL

[sweetapogee]

24. I like

your optimism. Don't share it but I do like it. eom

[golfguru]

21. Mike Shedlock's job growth estimate is exactly same as yours!!!

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/jobs-forecast-2011-calculated-risk-vs.html

If US population is growing at 1% that would be 3.25 million new citizens each year. 3.25 million divided by 12 months is over 270,000 new mouths to feed every month. We need that many NEW jobs
just to keep unemployment rate steady. Less than that per month and the unemployment increases.
Right now official unemployment is 9.8%. If you add the underemployed + part timers + those who
have given up looking, real under-employment rate is between 20 to 25%.

[jtuck004]

25. Unemployment 11% or higher by years-end, if that need continues

to be ignored, or the same pathetically small attempts continue.

GDP - don't care - it may or may not have much impact on people's lives, may not measure what I am interested in. I have little
doubt that the very wealthy, greedy, and selfish will increase the 87% of all private wealth they hold.

There will be some job growth, likely continued replacing of $60k/yr with $20k/yr or less jobs, service jobs, retail,
so there will be increases in the 40+ million on food stamps...

The 13-14 million foreclosures from 2007 or so will continue, and we may see new ones this year. We will almost certainly
see a further drop in housing values. If the FASB rules quit supporting mythical values in housing the drop would be severe,
so we will still be keeping banks open with hot air for some time.

It was reported that there were 35 million people without health care when the health insurance reform bill was signed, now
50 million without care. That number is likely to increase this year.

And the $20 a week that workers get in their paychecks by the decrease in payroll taxes will add mostly to the liabilities they owe taxes for, mainly because the wealthy are not paying their fair share.

Happy New Year.

[craigmatic]

27. Repub overreach by October. The economy rebounds by next December.

[Ikonoklast]

28. GDP at 3.8

Jobs at 180,000

U3 at 9.2