Seven reasons why the GOP faces an uphill battle to defeat Obama

[babylonsister]

Seven reasons why the GOP faces an uphill battle to defeat Obama
By Bob Cusack - 01/23/11 02:00 PM ET


President Obama’s chances of winning a second term have significantly improved over the past couple of months.

The election is a long way off, but the strategy sessions for Obama’s reelection are already under way. Some of the president’s senior aides, including David Axelrod, will soon be leaving Washington for Chicago to focus on one thing: making Obama a two-term president.

Obama’s poll numbers have been on the rise since Republicans won 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate last November. Perhaps more importantly, Obama’s moves to distance himself from the liberal wing of his party come as 2012 Republican presidential hopefuls are moving to the right in what is sure to be a bruising primary.

Intrade.com, a prediction/betting market, puts the chances of the Democrats retaining the White House at 62 percent.

Republicans in the nation’s capital are confident they can retain the House next year, and believe they have a better than 50-50 shot of capturing control of the Senate – especially in the wake of the retirement announcements of Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Kent Conrad (D-N.D.).

But optimism about defeating Obama is not nearly as high.

The conservative-leaning National Review magazine this month ran an article titled, “Obama – Evicting the president in 2012 will not be easy.”

The following are seven reasons why Republicans face an uphill battle to win back the White House in 2012.

more...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/139539-seven-reasons-why-gop-faces-an-uphill-battle-to-defeat-obama

[Pirate Smile]

1. Reminds me of this one - "12 Reasons Obama Wins in 2012"

12 Reasons Obama Wins in 2012
The economy’s rebounding, his approval ratings are ticking up, and the GOP field is a mess.
Mark McKinnon and Myra Adams on the president’s odds of a return ticket to the White House.



President Obama’s poll ratings are climbing. And the online prediction market Intrade has Obama at a 58.9 percent chance of winning a second term. Though November 2012 is light years away in political time, as Team Obama regroups in Chicago, they should be optimistic about their reelection prospects. Here are 12 reasons why:

1. Power of Incumbency

In the last 56 U.S. presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents; 21 of those candidates have won more than one term. Based on these historical odds, Obama has a better-than-67-percent chance of winning reelection. In 2004, voters were not happy with the economy, the Iraq War or President Bush generally, and still he was reelected.

2. Love Story Continues

Though the mainstream media is now sometimes critical of President Obama, he has never faced the extreme 24-hour-a-day derangement that has plagued other recent presidents and potential candidates-to-be. This gentle treatment is worth millions to a campaign.

3. Billion-Dollar Campaign

According to Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, President Obama’s 2012 reelection effort could be the first campaign to raise $1 billion. Not an unreasonable assumption because he raised $750 million in 2008. Look for the coming campaign to break all fundraising and spending records on both sides.

4. Experienced Campaign Organization

In 2008, the junior senator from Illinois assembled a team of outsiders that defeated the Clinton machine and won the presidency with 365 electoral votes to Sen. John McCain’s 173. With the same Chicago campaign team in place, Obama will benefit from experience and memory; mistakes won’t be repeated.

5. Obama’s Charm Offensive

Let’s face it, Obama knows how to turn it on and win crowds with his oratory. He is personally likable, has an attractive family, and his favorables are climbing. His Real Clear Politics average is at 49.9 percent. That’s comfortably within the zone of the last three presidents to win reelection. At 752 days into the first term, according to Gallup, President Reagan’s approval rating fell to 37 percent. Clinton’s was at 47 percent, and George W. Bush’s was 61 percent. If history is any guide, Obama has nothing to fear at this point from Mr. Gallup.

...
7. They’ll Be Back

The 2010 midterm voters that swept Republicans into control of the U.S. House, governorships and state legislatures were older, whiter, and more conservative than those who went to the polls in 2008. Despite this “white flight” from the Democratic Party, young voters, more minorities, more women, and generally more liberals will be back in 2012. Though some of the liberal base may hold their nose, they’re not likely to desert the Democratic incumbent in November. And there is no doubt that Obama’s billion-dollar campaign fund will find some way to get his core constituents to the polls.

8. Obama, “The Moderate”

Forty percent of Americans now see the president as a moderate. That’s up 10 percentage points from a year ago. More importantly, 44 percent of independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28 percent a year ago. If congressional Republicans are viewed as strident and over-reaching, Obama will be well positioned as a moderating force—with or without any Clintonian triangulation.

...

12. Several Paths to 270

There were five key red states that Obama won in 2008—Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina. Obama could lose every one of them in 2012 and still win reelection with 272 electoral votes.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-20/president-obamas-re-election-chances-12-reasons-why-hes-likely-to-win/?cid=hp:beastoriginalsC4

[babylonsister]

3. Great! Thanks for this! nt

[RDANGELO]

2. Another reason.

President Obama inherited the recession. They don't completely blame him for the situation.

[Clio the Leo]

4. Even Huckabee is refusing to declare his candidacy until late summer...

.... it's like one giant game of chicken with none of them wanting to be the first to jump, like they think if they wait just a BIT longer, Obama might finally screw up.

[pnorman]

10. A comment on Huckabee:

A while back, I did an "aggressive" Google search on the major GOP candidates and "unions". To my great surprise, Huckabee was unequivocally "pro-union", while all the others were just as I had expected. DON'T write him off as a serious threat yet! He'd be able to present himself as a far more credible "GOP maverick" than McCain!

[Clio the Leo]

12. Oh trust me....

..... I fully expect Huckabee to be the GOP nominee.

[elleng]

5. Palin, Bachmann, Barbour, Pawlenty, Romney, Huckabee, Bush

[babylonsister]

6. lol! Those, too.

:thumbsup: Add Pence and the creepy white-haired dude. Yea, newt, as in lizard.

[elleng]

7. Right; would rather have pence or lizard than bush, but . . . .

[calimary]

8. Sounds like the Seven Dwarfs.

Dumbshit, Nutbag, Hayseed, Who?, Dog-hater, Buy-bull, and Oh-God-not-THAT-family-again.

Cruel yes. No apologies. This bunch deserves nothing less.

[elleng]

9. Not cruel, cali, sad and true.

[babylonsister]

11. Hahaha! Yes indeed, calimary!

:rofl:

[Recursion]

13. Structurally, the era of the one-term President may be over

As campaign expenses go up, it's going to be harder and harder to beat incumbents.