"The lowest number of January job cuts on record."

[Clio the Leo]

Job market looks stronger ahead of Friday report
By Charles Riley and Annalyn Censky, staff reportersFebruary 2, 2011

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The job market started 2011 on solid footing, according to two separate reports released Wednesday.

Payrolls among private employers rose by 187,000 in January, payroll processor ADP said. Analysts polled by Briefing.com were predicting 145,000 jobs added for the month.

A separate report showed planned job cuts increased in January, which is not unusual for the first month of the year. But it was the lowest number of January job cuts on record.

Employers announced plans to cut 38,519 jobs in January, a 20% increase over December, according to outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The level indicates that the low downsizing rate from late last year may very well continue into 2011.

"It is not unusual to see job cuts increase in January. In fact, 2011 marks the fifth consecutive year and the tenth out of the last twelve in which January job cuts surpassed the December total," said John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas in a statement. "What made this January figure so unusual is that it was so low."

According to Challenger's data, January is the worst month on the calendar for layoffs. From 1993 through 2010, employers announced an average of 104,560 job cuts to start the year.

The ADP and Challenger reports typically set the tone for the government's highly anticipated monthly employment data, due Friday.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/02/news/economy/jobs_challenger/index.htm?section=money_latest&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Fearless]

1. Well that only means that the market is starting to bottom out.

[Dawgs]

2. +1.

:hi:

[Clio the Leo]

3. you have to stop falling before you can start climbing. nt

[ProSense]

4. No, that's not what it means

Employers announced plans to cut 38,519 jobs in January, a 20% increase over December, according to outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The level indicates that the low downsizing rate from late last year may very well continue into 2011.

<...>

According to Challenger's data, January is the worst month on the calendar for layoffs. From 1993 through 2010, employers announced an average of 104,560 job cuts to start the year.

If the average over nearly two decades is 104,560, a cut of 38,519 doesn't mean "the market is starting to bottom out."

It's unsually low. Job losses bottomed out a year ago.

[Fearless]

6. No

First, "starting to bottom out" is not "has bottomed out". I am not suggesting that this is the bottom.

And second, if the economy is still bleeding jobs, clearly the bottom has not been reached. "The bottom" in my definition is the point at which we stop having a net loss of jobs for 2 consecutive quarters or more. This is as always IMHO.

[mkultra]

8. that point has been reached

UE for December was 9.1%. Even considering the more ambiguous underemployment rate(which is built off the UE rate) we have started to produce more jobs than we are losing.


http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=state&tdim=true&tstart=631152000000&tunit=M&tlen=251&hl=en&dl=en

[Fearless]

12. If you calculate jobs based on jobless claims then you are right.

I do not.

[Hawkowl]

14. Stop making sense!

Yes, the bottom will be determined AFTER we stop shedding jobs and actually start creating them faster than population growth. Common sense has all but been eliminated on DU.

[ProSense]

17. "Common sense has all but been eliminated on DU."

If the economy requires 125,000 jobs to keep pace, and 210,000 jobs were created in October (note the OP states 187,000 this month), is that net jobs?

In fact, the average for the last three months is 128,000 based on BLS data.

[femrap]

5. I believe it's

because businesses didn't hire many people for the Xmas season.

[Clio the Leo]

11. "Holiday retail sales and hiring up significantly from 2009 season"

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/01/holiday-retail-sales-hiring-2010.html

[nod factor]

7. I am not sure

how many times administration officials are going to have to explain that for all intents and purposes unemployment will be stagnant for the foreseeable future for people out there to understand that 9% or 16% for U6 is the new normal.

Bernanke said it will be at least 5 years until things return and that is what everyone should expect.

Tracking these figures week to week and month to month is pointless.

HCR and HAMP and the student loan modification program and the enhancements to SNAP and all the other policies are all a part of the process of strengthening the social services safety net to cushion the blow of this recession.

There was never any intent at an honest creation of jobs and if there ever was you could argue it has been directed offshore to the benefit of multinationals.

It always gave me pause that from the very beginning in early 2009 officials came out and stated with emphasis that the job market would not return to pre-2008 levels and this is the new normal and you better get used to it. Doesn't that then mean there was no intention of addressing the employment problems in the first place?

[RBInMaine]

9. We are turining the corner. Not as fast as we'd like, but palpably turning. This was a WHOPPER of a

recession, and it will take time to replace 8.5 million jobs. This was nearly a depression. But good news is good news, so let's welcome it. Look on the bright side.

[CTyankee]

13. I just fear that the repubs will point to it and take credit for it.

They'll say "See, we told you that giving tax cuts to the wealthy was good for the economy!"

Ugh.

[totodeinhere]

10. I'm afraid that rising energy prices will cancel out any gains, and in fact we might be headed for

another recession. Instability in the Middle east might well continue for some time, and that's bad for energy prices and bad for our economy.

[impik]

15. I'm sure this is bad news. I'm just waiting for someone to tell me why

[Skittles]

16. it's not bad news per se

but is that the standard for good news now? lowest number of cuts?