"Can Obama Lose?"

[Clio the Leo]

I think I'll run for the GOP nomination. I can fake conservative values and, heck, no one else will run and this would give me a chance to meet him. :)

Can Obama Lose?
BY MATTHEW DOWD

So what combination of factors in this complex system of politics must come together to cause a catastrophe for Obama politically that would result in his defeat?

I see three, and all have to be in place and reinforce each other for Obama to lose. First, the economy in 2012 has to be either stagnant or in decline in the 10 or so key electoral states (especially the ones in the Midwest) as he heads into the election. This would mean that the economy is creating very few net jobs in 2012 and that prices (including food and gas) are still rising.

Second, no new major international crisis arises that causes people to rally behind Obama because of his competent handling of it. And I emphasize the words “new,” “major,” and “competent.” Afghanistan and Iraq devolving again into a problem will not help Obama, and actually may hurt him because our country has basically moved on from the situation in both places.

Third, a Republican nominee has to emerge who is charismatic; is a very good communicator; is in touch with the country’s economic and social needs; and is a new brand of GOP leader whom many younger voters can connect with. Think of what it took in 1980 to defeat the Democratic incumbent—Ronald Reagan and crises galore.

All three factors must converge for Obama to lose, and two of them are needed to drive his job approval down to a place, as I have written before, that makes it difficult for him to win. As one can see, these three elements don’t include how much money the Democratic National Committee and Obama have at their disposal...

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/common-sense/can-obama-lose--20110331

http://static.guim.co.uk/Guardian/lifeandstyle/gallery/2008/oct/06/1/[e-mail]

[Arkana]

1. Right now, no--but from now till November 2012 is a political eternity.

[Jakes Progress]

2. Not if the power brokers don't want him to.

As long as he delivers what they want, he get to be president.

[ClarkUSA]

3. With GOP governors in OH and FL, I'd say there's a chance the election will be stolen. Again.

Then there's that new voter ID law in OH which will affect 900,000 mostly Democratic voters...

[msongs]

4. particularly since democrats have done little or nothing to change that since nt

[ClarkUSA]

5. What do you mean?

[golfguru]

6. Only way he loses is if...

Unemployment is at 10% and gas prices are near $5 per gallon.
The wars don't matter...
The deficits don't matter...
Gitmo does not matter...
But gas prices will be the biggest threat.

[mochajava666]

7. Yes, he could lose a primary, but would most likely win in the

general election.

He has totally shit on his activist base, so GOTV efforts will be much less than in 08, but the Republican alternatives remain an anathema.

Better lucky than good.

[Clio the Leo]

10. HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!

.... but you're not supposed to post April Fools Day jokes until midnight.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. It would have to be a "perfect storm"

of a lot of negative factors for him to lose IMHO- and that's not taking into account the quality (or lack thereof) of the GOP's nominee. Obviously, it's much too early to predict what may (or may not) happen between now and November 2012 and I'm sure that President Obama and his team are not simply resting on their laurels. However, as far as I'm concerned, the election is his to lose.

[AtomicKitten]

9. One thing I know for sure, Pres O is going to fight for it. As he should.

[loudsue]

11. I don't think any of that matters. The supremes have unleashed a devil

that is going to, evidently, take DUers totally by surprise. The media will go so much further than this country has EVER seen before with all of their new corporate money. It's going to be so much more powerful than even 90% of our well-informed and well-reasoned DUers have dreamed. Corporations are going to show who controls this country in the next election.

[slay]

I'd like to see him lose a 2012 primary to an actual progressive

n/t

[donheld]

13. He seems to be doing his best to do so.

[Keith Bee]

14. Excuse me, Mr Dowd?

"Afghanistan and Iraq devolving again into a problem will not help Obama, and actually may hurt him because our country has basically moved on from the situation in both places."

Speak for yourself and your neocon friends!

[Tresalisa]

15. Can Obama lose?

I suppose it is possible, but he's an awesome campaigner and I think he'll be re-elected.

My GF and I did meet a group of conservatards at the bar last night who were convinced the Alaska hillbilly was going to run, and win!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

We kept our mouths shut on that one. We were just out to have a good time and didn't feel like getting into a tussle. We sure got a good laugh after we got out of there, though.

There was 1 guy who thought that Donald Trump could run and win.

[Imagevision]

16. Obama, fool me once shame on me - fool me twice? yah! right!

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

17. I think he's got a lock on 2012

but the party will need to find a good candidate for 2016. Especially if we're still in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya.

After a while, these are all "Obama's Wars"

[Enthusiast]

18. State tax cuts for

millionaires and corporations while simultaneously cutting the jobs of state workers will virtually guarantee that unemployment will increase just in time for the election.

I believe this is one of the motives behind the actions by Scott, Walker, Kasich and Snyder.