Obama team considering putting resources into contesting Texas in 2012

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Barack Obama’s Lone Star long shot
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Obama greets supporters after his remarks on immigration in El Paso, Texas, Tuesday. | Reuters Close

Sixty-three percent of Latino voters in Texas backed Obama in 2008, a solid but unspectacular showing that he must improve upon for any chance in the state. Moreover, Latino turnout in Texas lagged behind rates in neighboring states and was only half the rate among white Texans, who backed McCain 3 to 1.

With Obama’s Chicago brain trust hoarding resources at the end of the campaign, cash and people flowed outward. As a result, the state turned out to be a major net exporter of political capital for Obama — sending its donations, operatives and even volunteers to more competitive nearby states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

In meetings with donors this year, Messina has hinted at a more sustained effort but offered no specific commitment of resources, Democrats say.

“If he wants to win Texas, or even come close, you’re talking about a $20 million proposition,” said a top Democratic operative in Texas who has run several statewide campaigns.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54715_Page2.html

I hope he does. Make the repubs fight on their "home ground"....and maybe help the state dems get back into power....

[bluestateguy]

1. If they have the money they should do it

Winning TX is still a longshot, but if they can force the enemy to spend campaign money and do visits in TX, they will drain resources that the other side could be spending in swing states.

The Hispanic % in TX goes up with each election cycle.

[AtomicKitten]

2. Making them defend red states worked well in 2008.

[BlueCollar]

3. "...a top democratic operative in texas..." LOL

I haven't seen any democratic "operatives" in Texas since Ann was governor. If there are any...their faces need to be put on the sides of milk cartons.

Doesn't stop the grassroots from plugging away though.

It would be nice to have some help down here.

[DFW]

4. James Carville had the best line

I heard him speak at a gathering of the Texas Democrats during the Dark Times (Bush years).

He opened his remarks saying that when he was asked to speak at a gethering of Texas Democrats,
he assumed he'd be speaking inside a phone booth.

Rural Texas IS full of looney tunes teabaggers, but not exclusively so, and Dallas, Austin, and Houston
have LOTS of progressives. TX is not impossible to win, just a big uphill battle--you know, sorta
like Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina in 2008......

Do I hear the name "Dean" being whispered anywhere.....?

[Ishoutandscream2]

7. What he said

DU needs to pay attention to this before broad brushing Texans.

[Tx4obama]

5. Obama did pretty good down here in Texas in 2008 compared to many other red states

2008 US Presidential Election Results:

Texas

Obama 3,528,633
McCain 4,479,328

If you look at the chart on the link below it shows in the last column Obama's margin.
As far as the red states go, Obama did better in Texas than in 15 other red states.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_US_Presidential_Election#State_results


In my opinion Texas is now more PURPLE than red :)

Edited to add....
Except for Ft.Worth, in 2008 in Texas OBAMA won all of our largest cities/counties: Austin/Travis, Dallas/Dallas, Houston/Harris, El Paso, San Antonio, etc.
It's those darn rural areas that gave McCain the state win ;(

[JanetLovesObama]

6. I will be campaigning for him again anway so

bring it on. Texas is one of the most racist States in the Union and campaigning here is no picnic. But President Obama is worth every second of it.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. I don't think he'll win, but it's not about winning...

Your latter point is correct. Force Republicans to defend as many of their 'home ground' states as possible. It's what delivered him a landslide in the electoral college back in 2008 and it should help him again.

The fact is, I don't see many Democratic-leaning states Republicans have a chance in (and I'm talking about states that consistently vote Democratic). Pennsylvania will be the biggest one the Repubs could poach and I don't foresee that being lost.

On the other hand, Obama will already be competitive in the following Republican states:

Virginia
North Carolina
Indiana
Missouri
Maybe Texas

He just needs to win one of those states to win reelection (even if he loses pretty much every tossup state, though it will make for a very close election night).

[Tx4obama]

10. Huh?

Obama won Indiana and Virgina in 2008.

He has a good chance of picking up Georgia, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Texas in 2012.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_US_Presidential_Election#State_results

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Huh?

Indiana and Virginia are traditionally Republican states. Just because Pres. Obama won them in 2008 doesn't change that. I'm not saying he won't win either - but Republicans can't win in 2012 without winning either state.

Until Democrats consistently win those two states, I will continue to believe they're vulnerable Republican states Obama probably can win.

[Arkana]

17. I suspect Indiana will flip red again but Virginia will, shockingly, stay blue.

Kaine's running for Senate and you can bet he'll match Macaca Man punch for punch.

At this point, I don't give a shit how much money the President or the DCCC asks for--it's worth every fucking red cent to keep these kooks from gaining more power. Obama wants to raise a billion dollars? Fine. Awesome. Great. Given that the Koch Brothers will probably match it and more, he's going to need all of it.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Agreed about Indiana...

Though I've not seen any polls out of that state recently. I think it'll depend on the opponent. If it's Daniels, he'll win that state easily - but A) he probably won't run and B) I don't think he'd win the GOP primary.

[Doctor_J]

16. As Mallory Archer would say, "Oh, for..."

He has a good chance of picking up Georgia, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Texas in 2012.


:rofl:

[Tx4obama]

18. Did you take the time to look on the link I provided at the last column of Obama's margins? n/t

[tweeternik]

32. I'd love to see it, but

there is no way he win South Carolina. imho.

[GoCubsGo]

46. I don't think so, either.

Too many right wing kooks here for that to happen. No doubt they will find a way to suppress the black vote here, too. I think they are passing a bill to require a photo ID for voting, like they've been doing elsewhere. Gawd knows what other stunts they've pulling beside that.

[Robbins]

9. Texas

This would be a big deal.He might be helped by Romney as nominee.

This could help In the senate race.

[PDittie]

13. Not if the nominee is Sanchez.

Can't vote for the guy who authorized "enhanced" techniques at Abu Ghraib.

[PDittie]

12. Well, Karl Rove likes the idea.

"I hope they do spend all of their money and time on Texas so they can divert it from Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Mexico and Michigan...”

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-newspaper/texas-news/the-brief-top-texas-news-for-may-11-2011/print/

Texas will likely continue its valuable role as ATM for the rest of the country's Democratic campaigns ... and continue to be 100% Republican. Sorry about the cynicism.

[chalky]

14. People either forget or don't realize that Hot Tub Tommy's gerrymandering antics

sank our state into the dark age of conservative rule. Redistricting can be done every ten years and..guess what? Time's up. There's gonna be a huge battle coming over those districts. I think Obama's focus is on the outcome of that fight.

[Canuckistanian]

15. What about Dean's 50-state strategy?

Didn't that work?

[Very_Boring_Name]

23. The 50 state strategy didn't work

Keep in mind, it was always intended to be a long term thing, so down the line it could help. But 2006 and 2008 gains were due to an unpopular republican administration and a popular democratic contender, and I'd argue that the 50 state strategy ended up hurting us more than it hurt the republicans in those elections.

People always seem to forget that the 50 state strategy doesn't exclusively hurt republicans... it goes both ways. You're taking money out of swing states and putting it into solidly red states. This might not hurt when the dems are clearly in the lead both in polling and money, but during very close races (i.e 2004), it would be complete suicide.

[PDittie]

26. False.

I respect your opinion, but you're completely mistaken.

[Very_Boring_Name]

31. How am I mistaken?

[PDittie]

35. Pretty much in every way.

There's a reason Dr. Dean's in my sig line since '03 (when he still weighed about 40 lbs more than he does now). But it really isn't worth quarreling about.

Let me just say that here in Texas, the "run everywhere" strategy enabled Dems in the Texas House to draw within 4 seats of taking over that chamber -- before the Red Tea Tide of 2010 washed out 45 of them. Tim Kaine destroyed the foundation Dean had built.

[Exilednight]

24. Ignore the above statement, it did work. Obama and Kaine gave up on the

50 state strategy after they mismanaged the party funds. Neither of them liked dumping money into races where the candidate with a D in front of his name was losing in the polls.

They decided to only back the leaders, and thus hung many Democratic candidates out to dry.

[PDittie]

25. True.

[AtomicKitten]

41. The Democrats did not "mismanage party funds." LOL.

Good grief Pres O's 2008 presidential campaign was one of the most brilliant strategic campaigns in this country's political history. Howard Dean's 50-strategy was a departure from the Clinton model of concentrating on the electoral vote-rich states. Pres O's strategy implemented Dean's framework plus his coattails help capture both Houses of Congress.

Citizens United + teabaggers brought about the losses in 2010. The latter have since become a political liability, but the Democrats will have to break a sweat strategizing overcoming the former.

[craigmatic]

20. Texas seems like a money pit compared to winnable red states like GA

[Very_Boring_Name]

22. Looking beyond 2012, TX is a better long term investment

Obama campaigned heavily in GA and lost it by 5%. He didn't campaign in TX at all and lost it by 10% (which, it's important to note, is worth twice as many electoral votes as GA). Texas demographics are shifting in a way that GA is not, the Latino population is growing exponentially in TX and these will translate directly into blue votes. It's better to invest in TX now (when Obama's victory is pretty much assured) and have that organization in place for 2016.

[PDittie]

27. That's accurate

What the GOP knows -- and the national Dems don't seem to get -- is that winning Texas breaks the Republican spine clean in two. If they can ever commit to winning here, it's over for Republican presidential candidates for a generation. And the most significant investment needs to take place NOT in urban media but in grassroots GOTV, specifically for Latino voters and potential voters (everywhere, not just in El Paso and the RGV)

[craigmatic]

29. The hispanic population is growing everywhere first off.

Next Texas has more media markets and is going to be more expensive to advertise in once they start doing it. In 2008 Mccain was weak in the south in general and alot of white Texans may not have voted. While in GA the percentage of the white vote Obama has to win has gone down to something around 25% and that plus Latino and Black vote will be enough to push him to the win. Not to mention that he pulled out of GA too soon then he saw how close it was getting and threw a little more money at it. We almost elected a democratic senator here off of Obama's coattails alone. Texas never this close. GA is the lower hanging fruit.

[ieoeja]

34. I wonder how many Blacks did not vote believing even late that a Black man could never win?

If that was a substantial number, he could pick those up this time around having dispelled that notion.

[PDittie]

36. A fair assessment

However, Georgia doesn't win you the White House. Texas, on the other hand, now represents a 64-vote electoral swing in 2012 (32+ for the Dems, 32- for the Rs). Thank goodness Obama gets that we shouldn't just concede it ... and truly, it's more for the statehouse gains than even the electoral college.

[rainbow4321]

21. Oh, man..I still remember pre-Nov 2008 down here

I hope he does..there is soooo much potential down here if they show TX a little TLC. And that does NOT mean trying to recruit TX Dems to take buses to "swing states" or make phone calls to swing states. It got a little discouraging in 2008 because word trickled down towards the end to us locals that that is what the higher ups in the Obama camp wanted...abandon TX and help elsewhere in the country.



Keep in mind I live in the reddest county in the state pretty much (always goes 70-30 repuke). Democrats showed up EVERYwhere for the Dem primary voting and caucus. We came out of the woodwork. I had to park at my voting place (high school) waaaayyyyyy back in a crowded muddy field (me and another lady exchanged a "we're gonna have to be towed out of the mud conversation on the way in) because it was so f'n crowded with county Dems.

Went to the county Dem convention as an observer..previous conventions were maybe 300 people (according to those who went to those). 2008's had to be moved to another BIGGER site because there were to be **3,000** people. They had to get a waiver from the state for it to be held on that Sunday instead of Saturday (which was the state mandated day for it to be held). And then didn't the damn convention LAST FOR 24 HOURS. Yes, it didn't END until MONDAY morning at 7 am because the gathering was so huge and organizers were so overwhelmed with having so many people being counted, etc..

The local Obama organizers got a HUGE response from Dems wanting to help with voter registration drives. Local Dems spent every weekend either at fairs, grocery stores, outside coffee shops, EVERYwhere. Every weekend leading up to the deadline for registration I was out at a different site. Probably the best thing Obama camp did was to get locals to sign up with the county election office in order to register people for voting.

And OH how it pissed off the local Repukes...because they knew that every voter registration booth they saw was set up by Dems. Yes, we kept a neutral site (per law) and, yes, we would register ANYone no matter what their party. But the repukes knew. Their people were not the ones making mad dashes to those tables. The ones who were lining up to register were newly enthused Dems.

It really was an incredible time to be a TX Dem...especially in my redder than red county!

[PDittie]

28. 2012 can be the same way

While I am enthusiastic about neither Obama nor Sanchez (I'm almost certain he will be the Senate nominee), plenty of people will be, and it will help Democrats all the way down the ballot. We need to make certain people have their photo IDs, we need to beat the bushes like never before, and if we work hard and are lucky we could move that needle in the Texas House back about 5-10 seats to the blue.

[MilesColtrane]

30. That $20 million figure sounds like a good excuse for the DNC to...

keep treating Texas Democrats the same way as they have for the past several election cycles. (as ATMs)

In 2008 Texas donors gave the DNC $6.5 million. The national party "gifted" only $204,000 back to the state party.

Hey Ms. Wasserman Schultz, how about this? Give us just a third of what we donate back to us and we'll put up a hell of a fight with the money.

[MrsBrady]

37. if they would freaking

give some help to the party down here, we could win.

i'm tired of really good candidates not winning because they won't help.

the press here sucks, too.

[Paladin]

39. Well Said.

Sadly, it seems that the DNC has adopted the attitude of many here at DU---better to trash Texas as some sort of permanent fascist enclave than to work toward the very real possibility of changing things. The DNC gets no money or volunteer work from me until this situation changes......

[tammywammy]

42. That's why I don't donate to the DNC and only to candidates

I'm tired of Texas being used as a piggy bank.

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

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[Hutzpa]

38. They did put resources in Texas during the last election

but IMO it was not enough to take Texas, with enough resources and man power
Texas can be taken from the red column and put firmly into the blue column.

I say this because the signs are there, overcoming the rednecks should be a
priority, also monitoring the polls intensely will help as we have seen with
Wisconsin how the cheating is done.

There is a lot of that going on in Texas too.

[Avant Guardian]

40. Remember the 50 state strategy?

Reimplement it.

[totodeinhere]

43. The Democrats cannot be seen as giving lip service to issues important to Latinos just to get their

votes and then failing to deliver. That is going to be the GOP talking point in 2012 as they attempt to cut into Latino support for Democrats. They don't need to actually win the Latino vote, but if they can improve by a few percentage points then that would make the GOP very hard to beat in red states with growing Latino populations. They will be saying "the Democrats talk a good game but what have they actually delivered for you?"

The GOP will try to remind Latinos who tend to be conservative on social issues that theirs is the party that opposes gay marriage and supports the right to life movement. It could be a powerful argument with conservative Latinos.

[Name removed]

44. Deleted message

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[Flying Dream Blues]

45. Alerted on you.

And you aren't worth replying to.