NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll

[aaaaaa5a]

Here are the numbers from the latest NBC Wall Street Journal Poll which was released tonight.


Obama approval rating 49%



Obama 49%/Romney 43%

Obama 50%/Pawlenty 37%




Republican Field

Romney 30%
Sarah Palin 14%
Herman Cain 12%
Rick Perry 8%
Ron Paul 7%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Rick Santorum 5%
Michele Bachmann 5%
Jon Huntsman 5%

Republican Field of 6 (The NBC poll narrowed the list to just 6 names. Did not list specific criteria for doing so. Herman Cain was not included among the list even though he was 3rd in the first phase of the poll.)

Romney 43%,
Bachmann 11%
Paul 11%,
Santorum 9%,
Gingrich 8%
Pawlenty 7%


Only 45% of Republican voters are excited about their candidates.


Who's at fault for the economy?

Bush "solely responsible" 14%
Obama "solely responsible 10%.

Bush is "mainly responsible" 33%
Obama mainly responsible 24%

People who believe Bush is solely or mainly responsible for the economy 47%

People who believe Obama is solely or mainly responsible for the economy 34%


62% of voters believe the current economic situation is one Obama inherited compared to just 25% of voters who say it is one he caused.


Surprise! Surprise!

Obama's approval rating on handling the economy (June 11th) 41% approve/54% disapprove
Obama's approval rating on handling the economy (May 11th) 37% approve/58% disapprove


Positive/Negative

Obama 49/37…. +12
Romney 27/26… +1
Pawlenty 14/15….-1
Huntsman 7/9…… -2
Perry 12/15…..-3
Palin 24/54……. -30
Gingrich 16/48…. -32

Democratic Party 38/39… -1
Republican Party 30/44… -14



Should the Government do more to solve the problems of people-Yes 51% to 46% ( No I am not making that number up!)
Government is doing to many things better left to businesses and individuals-Tie 46% to 46%



THE STORY- Obama continues to lead. This is yet another very reliable poll that has the President up 6 points against Romney. We can state with confidence that the President has at minimum a 5-7 point lead over the GOP front runner. We can also state definitively that Romney must now be viewed as a heavy favorite in the GOP nomination contest. Likewise, despite favorable press and improved name recognition, Pawlenty's Presidential hopes are on life support. Regardless of scenario, he gains no better than 7% of GOP support. Pawlenty has never even been in double digits in any poll. Keep in mind, even Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich have more favorable data than Pawlenty. There is no longer any evidence to support or warrant matching him up against the President in general election scenarios until his primary numbers improve. Thirdly, George Bush still takes the brunt of the blame for the bad economy.


THE BAD- Three things. First, the press. Remember the coverage the ABC poll had all of last week? This new poll released today provides definitive proof that it was an outlier. I had a thread here last week documenting the 5 other polls that were released at the same time as the ABC poll giving Obama a commanding lead over Romney. This new poll conducted after the ABC poll furthers that conclusion. What the press was doing hyping the ABC outlier numbers last week was shameful.

Secondly is the economy. The public believes it is really bad out there. And its not getting better.


Economy will get better 29%
Economy will get worse 30%
Economy will stay about the same 39%


Those are bad numbers for any incumbent President. Regardless of where the public places blame, or who the opponent is, it borders on unfathomability that Obama could poll this well, with economic misery this bad. At some point, common logic says it has to catch up with the President. I think this drives the narrative that Obama is losing ground, even when for some unbelievable reason according to the numbers it hasn't happened. If the economy were just average (or even just a little bad) the 2012 race wouldn't even be close.


Third and finally, sometimes the public is just ignorant.

Should raise debt ceiling 16%
Should not raise debt ceiling 46%
Don’t know enough 38%





THE INTERESTING-George Bush is still the man most people blame for the bad economy. 47% of the public believes Bush is responsible. And 62% believe the economic mess was entirely inherited by Obama compared with just 25% who blame Obama's policies specifically. In yet another example of where the actual numbers are and what the press is reporting, the Presidents handling of the economy ACTUALLY WENT UP in June compared to his numbers in May.






This poll is very good. And very reliable. The cross-tabs were excellent (unlike some other polls)


Very liberal 7%
Somewhat liberal 15%
Moderate 37%
Somewhat conservative 24%
Very conservative 15%
Not sure 2%


Poll responders by race (Percentage of electorate by race on election day 2008 is in parentheses)


White 75% (74%)
Black 11% (13%)
Asian 2% (3%)
Other 3% (1%)
Hispanic 7% (9%)
Not sure 2% (NA)





Full infö here
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/11236%20JUNE%20NBC-WSJ%20Final%20Filled-in.pdf

[Renew Deal]

1. Pretty amazing that Romney is holding his lead.

Though it means he will likely lose it. Frontrunners rarely win.

[Thrill]

5. He hasn't been exposed yet

No one has threw any jabs at him. His numbers aren't good at all considering he's got nothing but positive coverage. Kid glove treatment

[TheWraith]

7. It's entirely a "good hair" number.

Romney looks good on camera, has a photogenic family, smiles, and isn't visibly psychotic. Therefore he gets support with a certain segment of the public.

[aaaaaa5a]

9. Remember Romney is going to have support.

Whoever the nominee eventually is will have 46-49% of the population with him in November 2012, almost regardless of circumstance. (Palin and Gingrich and likely Cain are the lone exception to that number). John McCain had 46% of the vote last time. Again you have to put the numbers in proper Presidential perspective. 40% of the public will vote either Democrat or Republican no matter what. So in reality in Presidential terms, 40% is like 0. That is your staring point.

For instance when Mondale lost to Reagan in a historic blowout, 41% of the voters were still with Mondale. Conversely in 2008, even with an unqualified Sarah Palin on the ticket and terrible economic times, 46% of the voters were still with McCain.


The point is that right now, its hard to see how Romney or any GOP nominee gets to 51 or 52% of the electorate. Obama had 53% on election day in 2008.

[Hawkowl]

17. Doesn't need 51%

Remember he only has to win some key states. He can lose the West Coast and New York in blow outs, win all the red states by a hair, lose the popular vote and slide on in. That is what I am expecting. I expect a Romney/Bachman ticket + Diebold + traditional election fraud in Florida, Ohio, etc. = "another shocking Repbulican victory"

After Bush stole the election from Kerry and then Obama refused to investigate any instances of election fraud, his fate as a one term President was sealed.

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. I agree. Remarkable numbers. The Repukes, with the help of the M$M,

are doing their best to lay the blame for the economy at Obama's doorstep, but surprisingly only the hardest core Pukes are buying it.

:kick:

[Pirate Smile]

3. Why did his numbers on the economy go up? Gotta be the gas prices. They've been going down.

Gas prices effect a far broader number of people then even unemployment.

It's all about the damn gas prices.

The gas prices were a big part of what put the brakes on the recovery. Hopefully, the drop in prices will give people and businesses some breathing room again.

Good summary. Thanks for the post. :thumbsup:

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Obviously the situation is bleak.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Yeah

we're like so totally doomed!
:eyes:

[aaaaaa5a]

10. Its real funny what happens

When you actually go in and read what the data says…. compares to what is actually being reported.


I wonder what the lead will be on Morning Joe tomorrow?

[Drunken Irishman]

11. WHY IS OBAMA UNDER 50%?

Fun fact: Bill Clinton spent 15 weeks in 1995 under 49%. He only held an approval rating of 50-plus five times that year - three of which came in December.

[aaaaaa5a]

12. Another fun fact:

From December 11th 1981, to October 23 1983, Ronald Reagan and did not see one approval rating over 50% in Gallup’s daily tracker.

That is 2 months short of 2 straight years under 50%!

He also spent the entire month of January 1983 with an approval rating in the 30s, including a low of just a 35% approval rating in a rolling 3 day tracking average from January 14th-17th 1983.



Could you image the media coverage if Obama had an approval rating that low, nearly 3 years into his term?

[Drunken Irishman]

15. It would have been game over, man, game over...

They would've written him off as a one-termer long ago.

That's what is scary about the media and why I'm one to pimp positive polls. If all they talk about is the negative ones, it kind of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy - the more they talk about it, the more likely it becomes.

If they say, nonstop, that Obama is unpopular and is going to lose in 2012, people start believing it - whether they think it or not.

There is a poll theory called the front-runner effect, where undecided and wavering voters, decide to hop on the bandwagon of the candidate that is winning. This was most noticeably seen in 1980. Ronald Reagan had not been able to distinguish himself from Carter in that election until the last minute. Once things broke his way, all the undecideds jumped onto his campaign and a fairly close race turned into a blowout late.

However, there's also the opposite of that. If voters sense a campaign is struggling, they'll abandon it in droves. This happened to Dean in 2004 and McCain in 2008. Once the media reports over and over again that a campaign is struggling or losing support, voters will buy into it and go vote for the other guy.

Thankfully, Obama hasn't hit a point in his presidency where polls have been awful. His worst, on average, is like 45% and that ain't bad.

[Kind of Blue]

6. Wow!

KnR

[cilla4progress]

13. Thank you

for this incredibly cogent and understandable summary and analysis. Really appreciate it.

[FrenchieCat]

14. Thank you for that!

I appreciate a good solid analysis.

[CakeGrrl]

16. 10% "Obama solely responsible for the economy"

Boggles the mind.

[DCBob]

18. Most important number: "62%"

62% of voters believe the current economic situation is one Obama inherited compared to just 25% of voters who say it is one he caused.