PPP New National Poll: Obama 47/Romney 45

[aaaaaa5a]

A new national poll conducted June 9th to June 12th and released yesterday shows Obama with a 2 point lead over Mitt Romney (47-45). This is down slightly from the PPP poll last month (47-42). (That difference is actually within the polls margin of error of 4.3%)

Key match-ups

Obama 47%
Romney 45%


Obama 52%
Palin 38%

Obama 52%
Gingrich 39%

Obama 50%
Pawlenty 39%

Obama 48%
Cain 38%


Taken from the PPP polling article

THE STORY-"As Obama’s Bin Laden bounce fades the gap has narrowed between Obama and his prospective GOP opponents. Obama now leads Mitt Romney by just 47- 45 compared to 47-42 in May. This is the narrowest lead Obama has had over Romney this year. Other GOP candidates are not so close. Obama beats Sarah Palin 52-38 (54-37 in May), Newt Gingrich 52-39 (52-38 in May), Tim Pawlenty 50-39 (47-33 in March), and Herman Cain 48-38 (47-29 in March)."



THE GOOD-'Obama benefits from the deep unpopularity of the Republican field. Romney is best liked with 37% of voters seeing him favorably compared to 47% who seem him unfavorably. He is followed by Pawlenty at 25-42, Cain at 20-38, Palin at 29-59, and Gingrich at a dismal 16-68. Gingrich’s disastrous news cycle has taken its toll as his rating has fallen considerably from May when he rated 29-53.'




THE BAD-“Our polling is increasingly showing both nationally and in swing states that if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee it’s a toss up at this point and that if the GOP nominates anyone else Barack Obama is in pretty good shape,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling."




MY ADD IN (THE INTERESTING)- Obama beats Romney among independents 52%-35% when looking at the polls cross-tabs between the two. Romney edged up slightly because he took 14% of Democratic voters while Obama took just 9% of GOP voters. The independent margin is real good. This is why I included the polls margin of error between the two candidates at the top of the page. With that independent difference, it doesn't look like the race changed all that much from the month before. Obama continues to run between 47-49% against Romney. While Romney runs between 42-45% against Obama, depending on polling dynamics.


The poll had real good crosstabs. PPP generally does a good job.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_615.pdf

[Peacetrain]

1. Romney does not sit well with the republican base.. and they are

trying to dislodge him.

But Romney if he runs is the real threat because he could draw the indys. It is the great unwashed middle that decides who will be President in the end..not the bases.

[Blasphemer]

6. This poll indicates that Obama does very well against Romney with Independents

I actually find that interesting - I thought Romney would have had more Independent appeal. Of course, running to the right for the GOP nomination may be a factor in that. Still, I think Obama will have no more problem beating Romney than he had beating McCain. Romney will either end up running a bit too far to the right (thus losing out on moderates and Indies who might have voted for him) or running as too much of a moderate (thus alienating the radical right).

[Kdillard]

2. Really 14% of Dems would vote for Romney? That just says it all.

[still_one]

4. It says that they are not democrats, and someone is lying /nt

[vroomvroom]

7. Strange Indeed. More than Likely Many Democrats will Stay Home Instead.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. Maybe they are just confused and want to give him a job

After all, Romney said he was "unemployed". :eyes: :puke:

[still_one]

3. A conservative christian is going to have trouble voting for a morman /nt

[bigdarryl]

5. Polls mean nothing at this stage

[WI_DEM]

8. NBC News/WSJ has Obama up by 6 and leading in 3/4 regions

by 9-18 points and behind (by 6) only in the south.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/06/16/romney_solidifies_lead.html

[yellowcanine]

9. These polls miss the motivational factor. Romney as nominee fails to excite most of the Republican

base. You are not going to beat an incumbent President with your base sitting on their hands.

[Marsala]

10. Doesn't matter. He'll pick Rubio or Jindal or some other nut as VP

And the base will get just as excited as they were for Palin. They want to be excited, so they'll find any excuse.

[DCBob]

11. Romney will self destruct.. he is making so many mistakes already... and there almost no pressure.

Obama will pulverize him in a debate.