Intrade Now Pricing Greater Than 50% Chance Obama Will Not Be Reelected

[Hawkowl]

It appears that in the aftermath of the recent update of Obama's job approval polls which as we reported just hit an all time low, the market has formally priced in a 50%+ probability that the president will be limited to just one-term. According to the latest InTrade odds, Obama's chance of being reelected in 2012 is now at its all time low, or 48.5% after soaring to a high of 70% back in May in the aftermath of the Bin Laden death at sea. This result however is far from conclusive: InTrade 2012 presidential odds for Rick Perry have risen, but only to 18.5%, Palin is at 5.5%, and Ron Paul's chances are at 3.2% (Bachmann is at 2.5%). So there certainly is some arbitrage to be made
there.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/intrade-now-pricing-greater-50-chance-obama-will-not-be-reelected-and-observations-political-

.

[OmahaBlueDog]

1. At this time in 1947, it was an article of faith that Harry Truman would not be re-elected

Even into the late summer and fall of 1948, the pundits of the day believed that Tom Dewey would be elected. Truman was ultimately challenged in the GE by Dewey (R), Thurmond (Dixiecrat), and Henry Wallace (Progressive). People talk about the whistle stop, and Dewey's disasterous campaign. The bottom line was that the economy finally began to show signs of life.

[Hawkowl]

2. The economy is showing the opposite

It is pretty much assumed by all the big banks, economists, businesses etc. that the debt ceiling fiasco along with the financial crisis in Europe along with the natural disasters in Japan, have pushed the world economy into a double dip recession. Last quarter GDP was revised down to 0.8% We have about 14 months to the election. The Fed Reserve is basically out of tools to fight the recession and Obama trumpets A CONTRACTION in government spending!!! (Government spending is a component of GDP). So next year, it ain't getting any better.

So if you are basing Obama's re-election on an improving economy, it is very unlikely. I believe this is what has turned the odds on Intrades bets.

Obama should give up on improving GDP and just go balls out for jobs. He should advocate direct employment by the government. The employer of last resort. He won't do it because he is a free trade, free market ideologue masquerading as a pragmatist.

[OmahaBlueDog]

6. US corporate profits are still good, and US companies are sitting on piles of cash

Foreclosures are slowing. I'll grant that the growth is anemic, but it's still growth. Stock contractions of 10% off of peaks don't phase me too much.

I can say anecdotally that, in this neck of the woods, pre-owned homes are selling. They are selling at about 10% less than they were 5 years ago, but they are moving. That wasn't happening a year ago. I still see restaurants packed with cars on the weekends, and I'm seeing commercial building (too few new housing starts, though).

I'm not trying to sound like Pollyanna here, but it's not all doom and gloom either. If 2011 holiday spending isn't an unmitigated disaster, and gas doesn't make another attempt at crossing $4, I think things will gradually improve in 2012, but with the caveat that there will be some fairly stark regional variance.

[vroomvroom]

9. US Companies dont give a Damn about US Economy and its Health.

Many dont pay any taxes at all (e.g. GE) and many hire majority employees overseas. Mos to of their avail cash is also held in accounts overseas waiting for the inveitable repatriating action (which Obama will certainly do) to bring it back so they can line their CEOs pockets. Sure US corporations are doing well but it certainly means nothing to the US economy since they dont have any interest in making it get better.

[Kennah]

4. Obama would do well to stop reading Reagan and start reading Truman

[OmahaBlueDog]

5. Amen to that

I'm reading (OK - listening to the unabridged audio) of David Halberstam's "The Coldest Winter." Although the book is about the Korean War, it goes into extensive discussion of the politics of the late 40s and early 50s. Lots of RW venom (after being shut out of power), red-baiting, an incredible RW media slant (from organizations that largely became centrist to liberal 3 decades later), and a very poor economy. Truman got beaten back on many aspects of his agenda, including healthcare. He was unfairly blamed for the fall of China to communism. In 1947, it was an article of faith Truman would not be re-elected. Yet he was.

[vroomvroom]

10. To Quote Obama: 'Always with you Progressives..' (in a patronizing tone)

As was spoken to Bernie Sanders in a recent conversation back in June.
My guess is he has NO interest in listening to any democrat that doesnt rhyme with Regan.

[great white snark]

16. The horror of having a well read President! Oh Noes!1

I heard he even quoted Bush....that stealth Republican bastid Obama!

[Arkana]

22. Did Harry Truman write any books?

[Kennah]

27. I should have said books about Truman

[coalition_unwilling]

11. Also, HST didn't give them hell. He just told the truth and they

thought it was hell :)

Seriously, HST ran against a 'Do Nothing' Congress, a strategy Obama could do worse than emulate, imho.

[brooklynite]

3. So, a good investment then...

[FrenchieCat]

7. Yes! You won!

:bounce:

In December of 2012, finally, we'll be able to party like it was 2000!
Thanks! :thumbsup:

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[BluegrassDem]

12. Who is "Intrade?" Never heard of him...

:boring:

[craigmatic]

13. It's not really surprising it's been a rough few weeks.

[Tx4obama]

14. The election is over one year away. I find it ridiculous and also annoying ....

that folks/THE-TALKING-HEADS on TV are so focused on the election already. Obama has been president for only 2 1/2 years - seems like we haven't had hardly no time at all to enjoy his presidency and already it seems like the only thing the news is talking about is the 2012 election ;(

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. intrade also has Rick Perry leading the race for the GOP nomination at 34% compared to Romney at 30%

Although current Intrade trading rates Perry at 18.5% chance of actually being elected President and Romney at 13.8% chance of being elected President.

[great white snark]

17. Good, now go rest on your laurels.

And let this forum do it's job-get Democrats elected/re-elected.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. So....Mission Accomplished?

:shrug:

[Hawkowl]

19. No, Mission Fail

So, hopefully, Obama and his bankster advisors change strategy because it is not working. The trend is down. He has to drop the compromise and the bipartisanship and draw a sharp distinction between himself and Republicans. If not he will make Mondale look like a big winner.

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. Both Clinton & Reagan were in the 30's at this point. As you know, both went on to win reelection.

This is much ado about nothing. When the news is bad, Obama's fiercest critics tell us he's doomed. When the news is better, they tell us it's way too soon to tell. I'd say make up your minds, but that may prove impossible, for obvious reasons. ;)

[Hawkowl]

23. That was due to the economy

Reagan and Clinton both had turnarounds because the economy picked up. We are currently heading into the second leg down. Considering that employment has not been keeping pace even with population growth, Obama is in big trouble. If the official recession takes place is announced in January and typically last 2-3 quarters, and employment lags the recover by 6-9 months....Do you see how Obama is running out of time?

He needs to pivot left immediately, specifically in creating jobs. Not tax cuts, which are ineffective, but direct government employment and subsidies to technology and green jobs as he promised. And drop the job killing Free Trade rhetoric.

He simply is running out of time.

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. When did "job creation" become the provence of the left? Nevermind.

I won't be kicking this piece of crap thread anymore. I said what I had to say. I'm neither a pundit, nor a prognosticator, and I suspect neither are you. The pundits & prognosticators said Clinton was the handsdown favorite to win the nomination. WRONG! They said pics of Obama wearing "Muslim garb", Tony Rezko & Rev Wright would be his downfall! WRONG!! They said if he weren't tougher on his Repuke rivals, he'd lose. WRONG AGAIN!!!! When I think of the number of things this president had going against him in '08, I have to chuckle at all "the sky is falling" posts on DU. :rofl:


:hi:

[dionysus]

30. what?! them's fighting woids! time for some kickboxin!

:rofl: <-- kickboxin'

:hi:

[pstokely]

28. What was Poppy Bush's at this point?

?

[Arkana]

21. InTrade had Ron Paul winning the nomination a few weeks ago, hth

[Douglas Carpenter]

26. no,Intrade never made a prediction like that - people put their money on the line

thus someone like Ron Paul never has and never will get beyond the lower single digits on Intrade for winning the GOP nomination. Although there was a period when Intrade predicted a 60% chance that he would win the Ames Iowa Straw poll. Which he almost did.

[Peacetrain]

24. Well I tell you.. if it is 50% this time next year.. then I will be worried

But at this point, it really the flavor of the day skewing the chart

[dionysus]

29. you must be pleased.

[DevonRex]

31. That should make a lot of people here very happy. Nt

[dionysus]

32. i can see them salivating over the prospect now... care for a truffle?

:hi:

[CakeGrrl]

33. Bizarro World. Obama's re-election will

actually be a DISAPPOINTMENT to a chunk of DU.

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TrainToCry]

35. I'll bet you $500 Obama is reelected, Hawkowl. Are you up for it, Mr. InTrade?

[IcyMedic]

36. It was 51.5% he would be re-elected this morning..

I figured it was due to Libya, but it's fallen to below 50 again - perhaps due to the latest Gallup poll.

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Minor variance around 50 doesn't mean much at this stage

Obama's problem is no realistic path to restore a high number.

Serious bettors don't play this far removed. Everyone senses that 50/50 is close to true odds so there's no bargain. This is more hype than low volume deserves.