"Despite weak economy, history professor's system predicts Obama 'very strong' for reelection"

[Pirate Smile]

Despite weak economy, history professor's system predicts Obama 'very strong' for reelection

-snip-
But even if the economy doesn't improve over the next 15 months, political historian Allan Lichtman says, more than 150 years of electoral precedent make Obama a "very strong" favorite for re-election in 2012.

Lichtman is an American University history professor who has successfully forecast the popular-vote winner in every election since 1984 using a system called "13 Keys to the Presidency." He says Obama has enough historical factors in his favor that even a dreaded double-dip recession probably wouldn't be enough to put a Republican in the White House.

-snip-
Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok, an expert in mathematical models for predicting earthquakes, developed the presidential keys in 1981 after analyzing elections dating to 1860. If six or more of the 13 keys turn against an incumbent president or the candidate whose party controls the White House, the challenger will win, Lichtman says.

The keys include foreign policy successes and failures, whether there has been significant scandal or social unrest during a president's term, whether a president or challenger is "charismatic or a national hero," whether the party out of the White House has made gains in Congress and whether the president faces a serious challenge in the primary or a third-party rival in the general election.

Most keys still positive

-snip-
Says Lichtman: "The keys are often contrary to the conventional wisdom."

http://m.palmbeachpost.com/pbpost/db_/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=cVfru21H&full=true#display

He thinks only 3 keys have turned against the President. Perhaps a forth by election day but that is still below the six needed (according to his system) to have the incumbent President lose.

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. K&R

:kick:

[Crazy Dave]

2. His big favors and tax breaks to millionaires, bankers and corporations...

May give him a chance if they pay back the favors.

[xchrom]

3. I think Obama will be re-elected.

& this from some one who does not support him at all.

[Crazy Dave]

5. Only if he runs against Bachmann n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. He Can Beat Paul, Santorum, Cain, And Probably Perry

I think they can be successfully defined as out of the mainstream.

The Republicants just might snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

[xchrom]

7. No. I think the country is in the thrall of the Bernanke/ gheitner style

Of fiscal solutions.

It will take more pain before they learn that new & repukes have no real solutions.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. If He Can Get Reelected In A Two Person Race

If he can get reelected in a two person race with an approval rating in the low forties it stands everything we know about voting on its head.

Now,maybe he will bring it up to the high forties or greater by election day or the Pubs will nominate someone totally unacceptable like Bachman, Paul, Santorum, or Gingrich.

IMHO, it all depends on the economy...

[Crazy Dave]

9. Every democrat that I know personally, including myself...

...will not be voting for a presidential candidate in 2012.

Of course we will still go to the polls to vote for local and state candidates and other state issues but not for a president.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. He Will Still Get The Lion's Share Of Democratic Votes

But not as many as last time. I think he will lose a lot of indys.

It's all predicated on the economy. IMHO, there is nothing, any of us can do to change that fact. If the economy does not turn around I don't see him being reelected unless the Repubs nominate someone completely beyond the pale or he wins a plurality in a three person race with the third candidate "stealing" right of center votes.

[Crazy Dave]

12. I'm sure he will and it's what he's counting on and taking for granted

The "lesser of two evils", "I'm bad but the other guy is even worse" card.

[Ikonoklast]

11. Anecdotal evidence is...anecdotal.

Every registered Democrat I know is once again voting for Obama.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mikekohr]

19. Count me in

Obama and 24 in '12

[Pirate Smile]

14. Brilliant.

:eyes:

[dionysus]

33. cool story bro.

[mkultra]

34. The republicans thank you for your vote

You will be a hero amongst "everyone democrat you know"

[Auntie Bush]

37. Not too smart are you?

Didn't that kind of thinking and behavior lose us the house in 2010?
I thought Dems would have learned their lesson by now...guess not.

[watercolors]

39. How foolish of you!!

[mikekohr]

18. The President will get 52.3% to 54.7% of the popular vote

low side if the Republican nominee is not nuts (Romney/Huntsman) the high end if the Republican nominee is wacko (everyone else).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Could You Please Cite An Incumbent

Could you please cite an incumbent in any election whose share of the popular vote was fourteen to sixteen percent higher than his or her approval rating?

It's really elementary. If President Obama brings up his approval ratings to the high forties or better he wins, If he doesn't , he probably doesn't win.

[mkultra]

35. Truman

read a book

[Auntie Bush]

36. NOT if DU has anything to say about it!

Nuff said! Sometimes I hate this place and the hate posted about our own Democratic president! Sometimes I think I must be in Freeperville!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. His System Is Flawed

The best predictor of an incumbents percentage of the vote is his or her approval rating. An incumbents approval rating roughly correlates with his or her percentage of the vote. If President Obama or any incumbents approval rating is in the low forties it is unlikely he or they will be reelected. That's just the way it is.

Now there are exceptions. There are exceptions to almost any "rule". An incumbent with a "low" approval rating can win a plurality in a three way race or his or her opponent can be deemed unacceptable by the voting public. If the economy doesn't improve the latter might be President Obama's only hope.

I say that as a dispassionate observer and not a partisan

[bigdarryl]

26. You should read his book before you make a judgement like that he has NEVER been wrong on the

popular vote pertaining to the 13 keys he even predicted Gore would win the popular vote which he did by 500,000

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. If Unemployment Is Still >9% He Can Stick His Keys Up His Proverbial You Know What

~

[blkmusclmachine]

15. Whether Obama "wins" or not, we're still gonna get GOP Legislation.

n/t

[Sheepshank]

16. There's a unique line I've never seen here before. *roll eyes*

As it turns out I would rather take my chances with a Dem President ahny single freak day of the millenia, than give a Rep a ticket to the WH to enact ANY type of legislation. So still voting Blue. Sounds like you're going green or red. Don't see much blue in you...why are you here?

[Pirate Smile]

17. Just amazing. And dangerous. The idea that legislation with a Republican President would be similar

to or not much worse then with President Obama is so ridiculous yet spouted here so regularly - by people who would bother to come to a political website just is so divorced from reality and the potential repercussions of following through on those beliefs less then 4 years since Bush was President. You know, the Bush that was so similar to Gore that people didn't really need to vote because it didn't make any difference which one was President.

The short-sightedness and lack of perspective continues to astound me.

Reminds me of the attitude in '10 re "who cares if Republicans take over". That's how we got the current state governments in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Florida....Because the shit being pulled there is relatively the same as if Democrats were in control...

[ClarkUSA]

20. Yeah, Naderites spouted similar crap in 2000 about voting for Al Gore. That turned out so well.

[Pirate Smile]

21. It just amazes me that people have learned nothing. They are willing to do the same destructive

shit again. :wow:

[bigdarryl]

27. Al Gore won the Popular vote by 500,000 the rethugs stole Florida

[Inuca]

24. Maybe you should got through

the list of actual legislation that was passed since Obama became president and mark clearly which bills you consider to be "GOP legislation. Or is that too mcu work?

[Waiting For Everyman]

22. K&R

[Cosmocat]

23. Yeah ...

Incumbency is so big ... And, outside of the the republican party and lunatic left wingers, people LIKE the guy.

Once the dust settles and the GOP candidate is picked, it will sharpen the focus.

Right now, BO is taking bullets from the entire republican party, a dozen different candidates tripping over themselves to say crazy crape about him, and the far left.

You get Romney or Perry lined up as the republican candidate, it will bring some of the left back home, and even the firefight out a little more.

Only thing that is problematic is the economy. Even with it, I agree, he still is the odds on favorite for reelection, it just might not be as great of a margin, AS LONG AS DS GET THEIR HEADS OUT OF THEIR REAR ENDS.

[CTyankee]

28. I truly cannot see a Republican win the White House at the rate the

declared candidates are going. They are doing nothing but trash talking about Obama. They don't have a plan, unless it is the Ryan budget plan that would do away Medicare and that is a nonstarter right there. As much as people are baffled that Obama can't do more for the economy, they got nuthin' from the Republicans who are running! And that's because the Republicans don't even HAVE a plan! They've been outed on their evil plots in Wisconsin and Ohio, promising one thing and then turning around and hurting folks with their economic and social policy, such as abortion, once they are elected. Folks don't forget that stuff.

[totodeinhere]

30. I agree that Obama is the favorite to win reelection right now. And for that matter,

it takes something rather extraordinary to topple any incumbent president such as what happened in 1980. But speaking of 1980, a year out from that election few Democrats took Reagan seriously, yet we all know what happened. Obama is the favorite but by no means is he a shoe in.

[sudopod]

31. I had a great NCAA bracket

does this mean I can see the future?

I'm not arguing with the conclusions, but the reporter's uncritical acceptance of the professor's claims. The guy had a 1/128 chance of being right at random, long odds but not impossible, and it wasn't random.

[Scurrilous]

32. ...

:thumbsup:

[Awsi Dooger]

38. Sky high unemployment and sky high gas prices = low approval ratings

And that sinks an incumbent.

Obama needs a triple headed miracle, in no particular order:

* Oil speculators to back off and decide they prefer a Democrat in office
* Republicans to pretend it's 2010 again and think they can nominate absolutely anyone
* Unemployment rate poorly calculated throughout 2012, minor error dropping it below 9% and undiscovered until November 7

I've used back fitted systems in sports. Undeniably valuable. And never as fool proof as they appear. When a trump card variable(s) shows up and ruins the forecast, you adjust to reel it in the next time, like getting the hook on stage.