Follow me through this hypothetical example if you will (re: gay marriage)

[bluestateguy]

Let's just say that that the USSC rules on Perry v. Schwarzenegger in 2012 or 2013. The Court rules in favor of marriage equality, and now all states (even Utah and Mississippi) will have to legalize gay marriage.

Conservatives are enraged. They are shitting in their pants with bile and foam at the mouth. They demand a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

Do you think there would be enough political support that such a thing could happen?

[dsc]

1. honestly it is hard to say

It would take either 2/3 of each House and 3/4 of the state legislatures or a convention. I think they would have to go the convention route but would still need 3/4 of the state legislatures which would be tough.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Very doubtful.

Constitutional amendments are very difficult to accomplish. 2/3 of both the House and the Senate would have to vote for it, and then it would have to be ratified by 3/4 of the states. In over 200 years it has happened only 27 times, even though many proposed amendments are introduced in each session.

[xchrom]

3. Depends on how it's worded. Nt

[EFerrari]

4. No. But the Republicans would still milk it for all it was worth. n/t

[krispos42]

5. The process is cumbersome

From the time the amendment is introduced in the Congress the clock begins ticking. The proposed Amendment has 7 years to get a ⅔ majority in each of the House and the Senate, then ¾ of the state legislatures (or state conventions) have to pass it for it to become part of the constitution.


I don't see it passing the Congress.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

6. No Way

In fact, what really enrages me about this whole DOMA crap that got all the wackos out to the polls in 2004 is the FACT that everyone who knows anything about the political process was trying to tell people THEN that the Republicans had no intention of amending the Constitution. They knew all along they didn't have the clout or the votes to do it. They used it as a juicy bone to get their lapdogs out to the polls. You want to know HOW MUCH Republicans are aware that they can't do it? Not a one of them has even bothered to ATTEMPT to introduce legislation to that effect.

It was a con game that the wackos fell for, and they'll keep falling for it each and every time. That's why Republicans spend the vast majority of the big election years looking for a wedge issue, as opposed to looking for a qualified candidate.