don't get your hopes up about 2012 based on yesterday's NY election

[cali]

too many factors working in favor of repubs and against dems.

1) Redistricting

2) voter I.D. laws

3) many more dems than repubs up for re-election in the Senate

4) voting machines

If I had to put money on it now, I'd bet that the repubs retain the House easily and take the Senate, while Obama retains the WH.

[IndyPragmatist]

1. I dont think they take the Senate, but I think they keep the House

Don't forget, the Republicans gained a bit from the 2010 census (much more than the Democrats). I agree that Obama will win the Presidential election, because right now, there isn't a Republican that can put up a fight. Their best chance was Mitch Daniels.

[cali]

2. why do you think dems will hold the Senate?

I just don't see it with dems having almost twice as many seats up as repubs.

[LiberalLoner]

3. Yeah, my husband is pessimistic too, thinks R's will retake Senate. :( n/t

[TheCowsCameHome]

4. I will.

These fools on the right have bitten off more than they can chew.

If they mess with Medicare and jobs don't come back, they'll be turned out in '12

[livetohike]

5. Good points, but I disagree because I think if the Democrats

come out to vote and the Independents realize how crazy the GOP ideas are, then it will be a sweep for us. I have hope in my ultra conservative CD-5 in PA that our too comfortable Congressperson (R), who thinks he has a seat for life, will lose due to his vote on the Ryan budget. There are many senior citizens in rural PA.

[seabeyond]

6. you forget the tons of money from corps and chamber. people seem to not factor that into equation

and it was a big part of the win in 2010. a lot of the reason they attribute to the win in 2010 is not. it is the $

[cali]

8. you're right- and that was a huge omission

[QC]

7. There is also the fact that our own party leadership always throws the Republicans a lifeline

when they are drowning.

This has already happened--the White House statement on last night's win in New York said nothing, absolutely nothing, about the role of the Ryan attack on Medicare in this historic victory.

It wouldn't be nice to remind people of what assholes the Republicans are, you know. That might hurt their feelings.