The Manufacturing Rebound Is a Myth

[Donnachaidh]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/the-manufacturing-rebound_b_865166.html

Talk of a manufacturing revival is in the air. America has, in fact, gained a quarter-million industrial jobs (source) since the start of 2010. Unfortunately, this is less than 15 percent of the number lost during the recession. Furthermore, after this teasing uptick, U.S. manufacturing output seems to be stalling again. So it worth revisiting a much denied fact I have written about before here and here: American manufacturing is in a state of profound crisis.

To get past the slew of analysis out there claiming everything is fine, it is crucial to understand why the usually quoted statistics that seem to show that American manufacturing is healthy are wrong.

First off, looking at aggregate manufacturing output, as most of these analyses do, obscures the fact that total output has only been stable (or close to it) because of a few sectors which have grown enormously. The rest of the manufacturing economy has been declining. According to a recent report from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation,

Most manufacturing sectors actually shrank in terms of real value-added from 2000 to 2009. In fact, from 2000 to 2009, fifteen of nineteen U.S. manufacturing sectors saw absolute declines in output; they were producing less in 2009 than they were at the start of the decade. There were declines of:

More at the link --

[Godhumor]

1. His data he cites repeatedly is between 2000 and 2009. I see absolutely no current data

Not sure how he concludes today's rebound is a myth as a result (Even if he did "correct for anomalies" as opposed to actually going and getting 2010 and 2011 data).

[Donnachaidh]

5. ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/durable-goods-orders-in-u-s-dropped-3-6-in-april-the-most-in-six-months.html

[Godhumor]

9. Read the article about reasons for the slump in durable goods and that it is coming off a massive

growth spurt?

Even that article labels manufacturing's recent rebound as explosive growth.

Sorry the HuffPo guy's article has nothing to do with the current manufacturing reality, no matter how much he quotes outdated data.

[OHdem10]

2. It is being spread by FREE TRADERS in covering up their

continued destruction of American Economy.

[jpak]

3. Obama must fail - he must, he must

fail fail fail

:thumbsdown:

[Donnachaidh]

6. ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/durable-goods-orders-in-u-s-dropped-3-6-in-april-the-most-in-six-months.html

[divvy]

4. thx for the republican taking points .... lets look at sector growth under shrub

[ProfessorGAC]

7. +1

Great find.
GAC

[Donnachaidh]

8. no -- let's look at recent

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/durable-goods-orders-in-u-s-dropped-3-6-in-april-the-most-in-six-months.html

[Godhumor]

10. 1 month variation during an expansive growth trend for one sector does not prove anything

Look at the trend from 09 through 11 for all manufacturing sectors. You will see a rebound and a substantial one.