Notice the media pushing the meme that the unemployment rate is proof Obama can't win re-election?

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/06/03/981672/-Unemployment-rate-does-not-necessarily-predict-re-election-chances

Fri Jun 03, 2011 at 03:45 PM PDT.

Unemployment rate does not necessarily predict re-election chances

<snip>An article in today’s Times notes, for example, that “no American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.” The 7.2 percent figure refers to Ronald Reagan, who resoundingly won a second term when the unemployment rate was at that number in November 1984.

This type of data may be of limited utility for predictive purposes, however. Reagan won re-election by 18 points in 1984, suggesting that he had quite a bit of slack. An unemployment rate of 7.5 percent would presumably have been good enough to win him another term, as might have one of 8.0 percent, 8.5 percent or even higher.

It’s also not obvious that Roosevelt should be excluded from the calculus, particularly given that the economic crisis the country is working its way out of is the most severe since his administration. He won re-election in 1936 with an unemployment rate of 16.6 percent, and again in 1940 with a rate of 14.6 percent.

[Enrique]

1. at least the meme calls attention to the jobs emergency

better than all the memes about the deficit.

[el_bryanto]

2. In this case what is the difference between a meme and an observation?

Or do you honestly think that if the unemployment rate stays where it is or worsens, it won't be a challenge for President Obama to win reelection?

I agree that there's not a direct correlation, but it certainly is part of the terrain Obama has to navigate.

Bryant

[obxhead]

3. If the meme gets Obama to do SOMETHING for us on jobs...

I say the media should double down.

(The key word is "us")

[NNN0LHI]

5. They are counting on people to be stupid enough to forget who got us into this mess to begin with

Don't include me in that "us" crowd. I can remember.

Don

[Nye Bevan]

6. Bush certainly made a mess. But how many years should it take to fix it? (nt)

[NNN0LHI]

8. Well, it took him and the GOP 8 years to fuck it up

Tell me how long it should take to clean up after their mess.

Don

[Dawgs]

13. How are they "cleaning up" the mess?

Are they actually working on something?

[MilesColtrane]

12. You've got to remember the fight over the initial Stimulus Package.

Senate Republicans forced the removal of $150 billion of federal funding to states in order to keep from having to fire their employees.

That was the price the administration had to pay in order to get the Senate GOP votes for it to pass at all.

Now the Boehner and his fellow pigs are doing all they can to prevent a recovery.

[JuniperLea]

7. Exactly right...

It's now "Obama's Depression" when all the time we saw this train-wreck coming we were told everything is fine... just fine... fine and dandy.

I'll stop blaming BushCo for the stench they left as soon as it starts smelling a LOT better around here.

I'm not sure how long it takes to recover from a depression/recession that was a decade in the making, but it sure as hell isn't 2.5 years regardless who is president. Had a Republican won/stole this presidential election you can damn well bet they would still be throwing Bush under the bus.

[obxhead]

11. I didn't say Obama was responsible for the causes of the problems.

He did however decide of his own free will to take on those problems by becoming Pres. Now it's time for him to do something to fix the problem for us, not Wall Street, the corporations, and the filthy rich.

[MrTriumph]

4. What's the unemployment in China?

x

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. The media seems to be talking Obama (and the economy) down a LOT since the beginning of the month

A still (slowly) recovering economy may not help Obama's poll numbers much but they don't, by any means, ensure a Republican victory, particularly when the GOP nominee is actually forced to explain to the rest of us exactly how he/she will do things differently and what THEIR plan is. The Republicans (and the media and even some progressives) keep suggesting (without any basis in reality) that Obama is massively disliked by most of the public and/or that Obama's Presidency has been a failure. But, of course, saying something is so, doesn't make it so.

[Forkboy]

10. I've gotten some real mixed signals on this from people offline.

There is DEFINITELY some serious anger out there, but on this issue (at least here in Mass) that anger isn't often being directed at Obama (in fact, a lot of the anger I see out there seems generalized, and not really directed at any one source). I think a lot of people know what Obama inherited and are still being patient with him on this, but these kind of unemployment numbers and anger, directed at him or not, make for a highly unpredictable electorate. This issue will be under the spotlight big time come the Fall, and will stay there until the election. How it pans out is anyone's guess, though my own guess is that the issue won't doom Obama.