Anthony Weiner's replacement will likely be about as liberal as he was.

[LoZoccolo]

[dsc]

1. We actually have about an even shot of losing that seat

It is the most Republican seat in NYC except the one that is currently held by a Republican and we are likely to see the Queens county chair name a placeholder candidate since he doesn't want that person to run against him when the 9th is eliminated.

On edit

It is trending badly for us

Gore won the seat 67 to 30 while Kerry and Obama both were held at about 55 with Obama actually under performing Kerry. Bloomburg won the area 70 to 26 while winning the city by only 4%. I have to say if the GOP picks wisely here we could easily see this district go the wrong way.

[Renew Deal]

3. I pulled the numbers a couple weeks ago. The seat is safe.

In its current form there's a pretty significant Democratic to Republican voter advantage.

[pnwmom]

5. It's up to Governor Cuomo to make the decision.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/cuomo-faces-strategic-chi_n_878153.html

SNIP

But the timing of Weiner's resignation presents some strategic choices for Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Under a just-passed New York law, a special election can take place no less than 70 days and no more than 80 days after called for by the governor. Should Cuomo choose that path and announce a special election immediately after Weiner submits his resignation (likely this week), it would mean that a vote to fill the seat would take place either in the dead-days of late August or right around Labor Day weekend. Turnout, in short, would be abysmal.

An alternative would be to let the process take its course.

According to John Conklin, a spokesman for New York State's Board of Elections, Cuomo could simply leave Weiner's seat vacant. If he did that, the vote for a replacement would take place on the general election ballot this fall -- a date more likely to encourage wider voter participation.

If that happens, however, prospective candidates would have to make a mad dash to get on the ballot. "People should be out passing petitions in his district today or tomorrow," said Conklin, "because the petition process closes on July 14." Candidates from one of the six parties in the state --Democratic, Republican, Conservative, Working Families, Independence and Green -- would then have to collect 1,250 signatures to qualify. Those attempting to run as an independent or third party candidate, would need 3,000. A primary would be held in September for that election on the first Tuesday in November.

SNIP

[dsc]

7. about the timing of the election, nothing else

The county chair of Queens is the current rep of District 7 in New York, and has every interest in making sure that the winner of that seat is weak. He will pick a placeholder who won't run again if he can.

[pnwmom]

10. Cuomo can take it out of the hands of the County Chair.

Cuomo isn't obligated to call a special election at all. He can leave the seat open till the regular election -- let it be a free for all.

[rug]

2. What do you know about Queens?

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

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[Book Lover]

6. Third person in thread, first one to have lived in the district under discussion

I was born and spent the first 20 plus years of my life in Queens' 9th district. And I'm here to tell you that you're right. It will take a very long time for a Republican to win the seat vacated today; certainly not in the next election.

[proud2BlibKansan]

8. There hasn't been a republican in that seat since 1923

[dhill926]

9. yes, but.......

will she/he be as effective a spokesperson? Wield the power and clout as well?

I think not......

[aquart]

11. Because anyone is replaceable and interchangeable with any other.