Why Jeb Bush Won't Run for President in 2012 (but may accept 2012 VP slot)

[stockholmer]

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/05/why-jeb-bush-wont-run-for-president-in-2012/239464/

..........................................Probably most determinative here, though, is the matter of second chances. Jeb ran for governor again in 1998, this time unopposed by other Republicans in the primary, and easily won the general. But if Jeb were to win the 2012 GOP presidential nomination and lose the general election, what are the chances Republican primary voters would give him a do-over in 2016? The days of Thomas Dewey and Adlai Stevenson are over. If Jeb were to face Obama and lose next year, he would almost certainly be done for good.

Still, for avid fans of the former first brother, the bright side is that they probably will not have to wait very long before seeing Jeb's name in common circulation again -- and this time, the role will be one that actually preserves and protects his option to run in 2016 (a year and contest Jeb has pointedly declined to rule out).

Just about one year from now, as the GOP winner sews up the nomination, the question of a running mate will arise. A running mate who, by dint of that role, would be the first among equals in 2016 should the ticket lose ... or even more than that, in 2020, should the ticket manage to win.

If Jeb is seriously considering his own run in those years, watch for today's "no" to turn into next summer's "yes."


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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13851110


Jeb Bush: No run in 2012, but I don't rule out 2016

..................................................He deflects the follow up question of whether he has ruled out running in 2016.

"No, but I haven't ruled out being on American Idol either," he says.

Full disclosure, I'm a sucker for politicians who can even feign self-deprecation, especially with a sense of humour. But I confess I was impressed with that one.

snip

The question is: Would the American public be impressed enough with Jeb to overcome a slight queasiness at electing three presidents from the same family? After all, the country did boot out the Brits a couple of centuries ago, partly in order to get rid of dynastic rule.

But the US has a complex relationship with these things.

Americans tell pollsters they dislike the idea of moving from Bush to Clinton to Bush to Clinton to Bush, etc. Analysts say Jeb Bush's family name could hurt his chances of winning a presidential election
But in reality, any candidate who wants to win their party's nomination has to win over their party's establishment.

snip

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the true nightmare (and there are a lot of ifs in here)

If Jeb runs as VP (my bet would be on a Perry/Bush ticket) and wins in 2012, this sets up a possibility (again, remote, but still significant) that from in the 48 years from 1980 to 2028, the USA will have had a Bush as either VP or President in 36 of those years.

:scared:

[PCIntern]

1. Well, it's the Master Plan isn't it?

Started in Dallas in 1963 and hasn't stopped yet...

[LeftinOH]

2. Enough of the BFEE! The general public may be a little weary of them by now, anyway. n/t

[n2doc]

4. If things don't get markedly better by 2016 it won't matter n/t

[ThomWV]

3. If Jeb takes the VP slot in 2012 it will bump him up the R's list for the top spot in 2016

The Republicans, it is said, always take the next guy in line for their candidate. If Jeb fills the VP slot in 2012, and gets beat, it will automatically bump him up to the Presidential spot on the 2016 ticket. Palin could have had it this year were it not that she's a fucking idiot and deep in their hearts even the Republicans know it.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

5. Anyone with a Bush as a VP would have to sleep with one eye open.

[mod mom]

6. no kidding. Ronald Reagan was lucky to survive but BFEE may

make sure it doesn't happen that way again. :scared:

[SpiralHawk]

7. "We want Neil Stickyfingers-Silverado Bush to run." - RepubliWankers (R)

"Nobody can rip off the American people and enrich the rich quite like Neil Silverado Bush. We want Stickyfingers (R). We want Sticlufingers (R). We want Stickyfingers Bush (R) and Rev. Second-Coming-of-Christ MoneyBags Moon (R), our own Adored Holee Republicon Bagman."

- RepubliWankers (R)

[Syrinx]

8. you'd need a death-wish to make JEB your VP

I'm just saying. Killers.

[Octafish]

9. The Jebthro Scenario

If "elected," what he has in store for America:



Other than that, it'd be great for the "smart" son of a double-naught spy.

[midnight]

10. We have been warned....