KO Countdown "The sobering forecast of Paul Krugman" (Video)

[Ruby the Liberal]

(His quote)

http://current.com/shows/countdown/videos/paul-krugman-on-whats-next-for-the-american-economy

[applegrove]

1. What did Krugman say, video does not play for me.

[Ruby the Liberal]

2. Basically that Austerity will kill any momentum the 'recovery' has

Some things Obama can tap into to raise revenues are fining the banks over the mortgage fiasco, foreign aid, etc. Other than that, they have locked him down and he has no way of raising cash to stimulate the economy.

He also talked about Super Congress and the effect of the triggers (thinks trigger is VERY likely as these guys will never been able to agree on anything).

Slams Gingrich for calling the Obama Administration a "Paul Krugman Presidency" (which is laughable at best as he is one of the biggest critics of the admin's economic policies). Relates policies to 1937 moreso than Hoover (although the 1932 and 2011 speeches are remarkably similar).

May have been a few other remarks.

[applegrove]

3. Thanks. Some group did a study of how accurate columnists are and Krugman came in first for accuracy

[Ruby the Liberal]

4. Interesting.

I have long been a fan. Wish I could have studied under him, but who can afford Princeton, aye?

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Well he is a nobel prize winning economist

and does not play one on tv

[BNJMN]

22. Obama is a Nobel Prize winner as well, so....

[Citizen Worker]

26. And winner of the Peace Prize no less!

[BNJMN]

27. He should've returned it. [nt]

[FiveGoodMen]

35. THEY should have demanded it BACK

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. Peace prize, not economics, there IS a huge difference

and given his actions, POTUS should return it.

[BNJMN]

23. Link?

[PA Democrat]

24. Here's a link to an article on the study:

http://saintpetersblog.com/2011/05/study-paul-krugman-is-most-accurate-prognosticator-cal-thomas-is-the-worst/

[jtuck004]

5. We feed on demand. We don't really care if it is American's with jobs

buying things (demand), or millions of Europeans buying things because we bombed their manufacturing capacity to the stone age. (Well, it doesn't seem that we care, since we happily accepted the dollars when those things were going on).

Now, Asia and Europe have rebuilt and even become competitive. We refused to invest in our people and country, and are getting exactly what would result from that. We have laid off millions upon millions of people, and replaced millions of other good-paying jobs with jobs that pay half or less.

So a significant portion of demand is coming from government spending in various forms.

This package will take that money out of the economy, to the tune of $1.2 trillion. The majority of it is at the expense of head start, low income housing for seniors, might be veterans, certainly scientific research (don't need that if you think it all started with Adam and Eve, eh?). All those things are listed under "Discretionary Spending". (Which should tell you where the most vulnerable are on the priority list).

In any event, those dollars went straight into the tills of business, providing demand.

Now gone.

Unemployment, more hunger, more poverty will result. Don't have to, we could create a jobs program and reduce those things, make the country stronger. But we chose this.

For those people we might as well have let the debt ceiling lapse. (On the other hand, getting a deal insured that the wealth owned by, say, investment banks, stayed intact). It will result in the loss of thousands of jobs. For those people, and others, their world just fell apart.

Don't need Krugman, though his platform is appreciated. An eighth grader could figure this out.

[Ruby the Liberal]

7. You hear the latest today? Deferred student loans for undergraduate and graduate students

Yep. Don't know the extent, but the bill cuts the subsidy that allows students to defer payments until graduation. They did protect low income subsidies like Pells, but it is still a huge hit. I could never have gotten my Masters without deferred Stafford loans.

[jtuck004]

13. That's a prescription to kill future growth.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/bubble-university-student-loan-accounts-equal-auto-loan-accounts-for-profit-education-colleges-housing-future-loans/

That's going to sap future productivity, reduce demand. Shooting ourselves in the foot. Then reloading, and doing it again.

Government should make the loans, defer interest till a year after 1/2 time attendance stops, maybe just keep taking a class to defer interest. Lots and lots of full tuition and book grants, research.

We owe it to ourselves.

[Ruby the Liberal]

19. We have yet to begin to understand the full effect of the poison pills contained in this bill

that will strangle the economy.

:bounce: Yay Austerity!! :bounce:


:eyes:

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Sadly eight year olds really cannot figure this out

sadly... and we are 'bout to learn the same lesson AGAIN... to those of us who know it...

[roomfullofmirrors]

10. there was no momentum. There was no recovery. We were fucked going into the deal

and we're fucked coming out of it because the fundamentals haven't changed and they aren't going to change BUT if we don't cut spending, we get our AAA rating stripped and then we're fucked doubleplusgood. The good news is, we're probably going to get the military cuts that we have been screaming about for decades. so cheer up everybody.

[jimlup]

6. "He's turned into the 2nd coming of Herbert Hoover"

Does not bode well for the American Economy nor his presidency.

Yeah - Krugman is right - we have a big problem now.

[Oasis_]

11. The problem is

We're returning to the relative failure of Monetarist policy and discarding Keynesian--at a time we can ill afford to. We're stuck in the classic liquidity trap, and at BEST we can expect something similar to Japan's "lost decade" and there's a real possibility of a double dip comparable to '37.

All of the similar signs of deterioration are now in place, with the possible exception of rising interest rates (for now)

We're dealing with a four headed monster of 1) high unemployment 2)high commodity prices 3) the reduced consumer demand that inevitably results from the aforementioned. 4) a depressed housing market coupled with significantly reduced manufacturing demand.

The Fed is now out of bullets, and realizes that a QE3 may temporarily staunch the bleeding, but will serve to only exacerbate the problem over the long (and relatively) short term.

A reduction in government spending very well may result in an actual and severe Depression rivaling the "Great Depression" of the 1930's.

Oasis

[jimlup]

20. Thanks

Yeah - unfortunately I believe your analysis is correct.

[Pisces]

12. Krugman is never right. Just a Henny Penny the sky is always falling until it doesn't

[Forkboy]

14. Pundit Accuracy Tested: Krugman and Dowd DOMINATE

In this paper, we report on the first-ever test of the accuracy of predictions in the media. We sampled the predictions of 26 individuals who wrote columns in major newspapers and/or appeared on the three major Sunday television news shows (Face the Nation, Meet the Press, and This Week) over a 16 month period from September 2007 to December 2008. Collectively, we called these pundits and politicians “prognosticators.” We evaluated each of the 472 predictions we recorded, testing its accuracy.

To obtain our final prognosticator sample, we first generated a sample of 22 print media columnists and 36 TV prognosticators, based on who was most widely syndicated and who appeared on the network Sunday morning talk shows more than 5 times within our evaluation period. From our full sample of 58, we then randomly selected 25 prognosticators to create our final sample. Later, we added George Will as our final (26th) prognosticator, due to his enormous presence in the media scene.

The most accurate prognosticator was Paul Krugman of The New York Times and Princeton University , followed by Maureen Dowd, another columnist for the Times, and former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell. The worst prognosticator was Cal Thomas, a syndicated columnist. South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham was next worst, and Michigan Senator Carl Levin was third worst.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/03/972769/-Pundit-Accuracy-Tested:-Krugman-and-Dowd-DOMINATE!-Update:-Professional-Left-Snubbed

[Ruby the Liberal]

16. Dowd? Rendell??

Wow. I wouldn't have put either of them near the top of the list. Anecdotally, of course.

Interesting.

[Major Hogwash]

33. That's very interesting, thanks.

It's very unusual for you to provide something of substance.
You must have been waiting all this time plotting and planning to spring something substantial like this on us all along!

[Forkboy]

34. "It's very unusual for you to provide something of substance."

Thanks?

[Oasis_]

15. LOL

Really? Do you deny that the United States is mired in a liquidity trap predicted by Krugman? How would you combat it? QE3?

The sky IS FALLING, and continues to do so. There's an extraordinary dearth of demand. Consumption fuels this economy, and absent demand we will continue to sink.

Oasis

[Ruby the Liberal]

17. Out of curiosity, what economists do you recommend?

Keynesian is apparently not your cup of tea, and I am guessing Ayn Rand, Adam Smith and Milton Friedman's laizze faire/free hand aren't high on your list.

So what school/Practitioner do you recommend? Always up for a good summer read on an economic theory I hadn't considered. (yeah, I know, imma dork, but I do enjoy alternate theories).

[Pisces]

21. Nouriel Roubini, accurately predicted the worldwide recession that occurred. He was nicknamed Dr.

Doom and laughed at by other economist. He predicted the housing bubble all before it was in vogue to jump on the obvious. Krugman comes off as extremely arrogant and bitter that he was not included as an advisor to Obama. I don't deny that he is smart and that he has valuable information, however, it is lost by his delivery.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. Alas he is also a Keynseian...

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. So let me ask, have you checked the latest economic data?

and is the government in the Henny Penny business too?

[Major Hogwash]

28. Hahahaha!!! My stock went through the roof in the Henny Penny business!

But they live in a house that's only 2 feet high!!!


LoL

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. I see, so the Feds reoporting on this data are in the henny penny business

and since yuo are talkigj stocks, checked the market TODAY?

[Major Hogwash]

32. Yes, I did. My cookie stocks are going bonkers, up and up and up.

They're made by elves who live in trees.

[PA Democrat]

25. Actually, Krugman's track record is pretty impressive:

Study: Paul Krugman is most accurate prognosticator; Cal Thomas is the worst

http://saintpetersblog.com/2011/05/study-paul-krugman-is-most-accurate-prognosticator-cal-thomas-is-the-worst/