From Wisconsin: Republicans are NOT omnipotent. They CANNOT steal elections at will.

[elocs]

As bizarre as this may seem, sometimes a Republican actually wins in heavily Republican districts without there being any election fraud whatsoever.

We did great here yesterday in Wisconsin. We defeated 2 out of 6 Republican incumbents and it is never easy to beat an incumbent. Here in La Crosse Jennifer Shilling easily beat Dan Kapanke with 55.4% of the vote and there was absolutely nothing the Republicans could do to stop that.

Here is a newsflash: sometimes Democrats lose elections because more voters actually prefer the Republican. Certainly Republicans will employ dirty tricks and use whatever means they can to win an election at times, but when Democrats cry that elections are stolen all the time it makes them less credible when it actually happens.

We had 2 victories yesterday and we need to hold our seats next week and then we continue the battle and move forward to recall Walker next year. Believe me, for all the Republican bravado about how we failed to gain the 3 seats needed, they are worried about what happened yesterday.

[PeaceNikki]

1. Agreed.

100%.

And how to these people rationalize the elections we win - like the 2 last night?

[elocs]

3. I want us to be credible & believable when there is clear and provable election fraud.

Do people actually believe that the Republicans simply allowed us to come within 1 seat of winning the 3 needed just to toy with us?

[PeaceNikki]

5. I dunno what people think.

But I do have faith in the integrity of elections here. I will continue to work hard to keep them honest, but I believe the SC recount, the primary and the District 8 recall.

I don't LIKE the results, but I trust them.

[elocs]

15. I absolutely believe that as well, but some here never will. n/t

[PeaceNikki]

18. I am especially eyerolly at the ones who have NO IDEA how polarized this place is. None.

They live in an echo chamber and cannot see that there's a whole 'nother group of people who believe the exact opposite of us with an equal amount of passion. They think every Republican is running from Walker. They aren't. They are supporting him and the politicians that support him now more than ever. They don't go to Madison and protest, they show up at the polls and bring their like-minded friends. I know because I interact with them every day. They are my neighbors, local business owners, co-workers, people I run into at the park. I talk to them. I am not shy. They exist. In droves. Especially here in Waukesha County.

[AndyTiedye]

54. Well, They Usually Only Steal as Many as they Need to Win

[Rex]

4. Very easy answer - Dems don't cheat or have not been caught

or accused of cheating over and over and over. Kinda common sense.

[PeaceNikki]

6. lol, ok... well why did these magical PTB *let* us win is the question I have?

Since, you know, they control all elections.

[Rex]

9. Not my point. Perception is everything in this country.

Why do Republicans get accused of cheating all the time and not Democratic leaders? Since, you know, that is what the general perception is about the GOP it is kinda easy to understand. Maybe now you get it.

[elocs]

16. Dems have "never been accused of cheating? Really? Never?

I think historically you will find that not to be true. Republicans have just gotten better at not only the gamesmanship and the dirty tricks, but stealing "some" elections--not every Democratic loss though.

[Rex]

19. Go ahead and prove me wrong then. I bet the results are not even close.

And of course I never said anything about stealing every election nor do I think the GOP has the ability to do so. Repukes just steal, lie and cheat far more then their counterparts, unless you know otherwise.

[nadinbrzezinski]

43. I'd qualify this in the modern period

:-)

Dems were and have been know to be just as dirty... chicago machine and New York Machine come to mind.

[Rex]

51. Hmmm...okay if you define this down to the modern period

maybe, but I was mostly talking about election fraud...what say you on that one subject? Sure they are dirty...but do they cheat to win elections?

[nadinbrzezinski]

53. Oh back in the last century, early part, they used

to pay for votes.

It was bad. You wanted to get a job as a municipal worker? You'd better vote the right way. ANd yes, they had ways to know.

In the modern period, like the last fifty years though. the Rs have gone down a path that makes the PRI look like honest brokers. And in the South, they have been at it far longer, and that is not party... but color of skin. You know there are certain people we need to keep from voting... it used to be dems, these days it is Rs.

And it is an art.

[HereSince1628]

2. K&R n/t

[TheBigotBasher]

7. Two victories against Rethugs who won their seats

when candidate Obama won that State by a massive margin. Republicans would be mad to dismiss this.

[Rex]

12. Two victories against incumbents!

Yet some people here will poo poo any good news it seems.

[TheBigotBasher]

55. Not just incumbents,

incumbents in seats scum thought were safe for life.

[Tx4obama]

8. Even without the Waukesha County votes Darling would have still won.

See here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1707525


p.s. I think it is WONDERFUL that the democrats won the two seats last night :)
And I hope there is a huge turnout next week for the dems in the next two recall elections.
I do hope that Wisconsin is still planning on recalling Walker in January 2012.
BUT I read today that the legislature up there in WI is going to try to pass a bill to change the recall rules to where recalls can be for only 'criminal offensives' - I hope that doesn't happen.

[PeaceNikki]

10. uh huh

The bill you are talking about would be a constitutional amendment. That would have to pass 2 legislative sessions and a referendum. Highly unlikely and would take a good amount of time.

[TheWraith]

11. Kicked and recommended.

People here (and elsewhere on the left) forget that normal human beings are not like us: they don't see things as a battle between good and evil, and some otherwise reasonable people can actually see Republicans as an alternative, without being part of the insane fringe or having their votes stolen.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Disappointing But So True...

I worked in gathering signatures for the recall in the 8th District and donated money to the Pasch campaign...thus I'm not too happy with last night's outcome, but I am not going to go for the "voter fraud" card...one that cheapens real fraud and lets those who lost absolve themseles of any responsibility.

Hopefully with only a one vote majority the Democrats can find a weak-kneed rushpublican to help prevent further damage from being done...then to hope to learn from the goods and bads of last evening for next year's elections.

The bottom line is next year's elections are going to be bitter and hard and Democrats and unions better be ready to meet the challenge or face even worse consequences...

Cheers...

[Scuba]

14. K&R We turned to red seats blue. That's a big deal. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. Agreed but I have a bad feeling about Waukenausha, and due to history

I'd still like more than just local observers, I want international observers.

[PeaceNikki]

20. Waukesha.

I don't think you have any idea how polarized this place is. How red this place is. None.

There's a whole 'nother group of people who believe the exact opposite of us with an equal amount of passion. They are supporting Walker and the politicians that support him now more than ever. They don't go to Madison and protest, they show up at the polls and bring their like-minded friends. I know because I interact with them every day. They are my neighbors, local business owners, co-workers, people I run into at the park. I talk to them. I am not shy. They exist. In droves. Especially here in Waukesha County.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. I understand that

there are few places here that are like that.

But from the history of where you stuff ballots... it is the PERFECT place to to do it... and there is a history staring in 2004. That is why.

[PeaceNikki]

32. I'll refer you to this post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=1713093&mesg_id=1713588

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. Look we are not going to agree

and that is all. I honor your service, but I have seen this in OTHER countries. And we do have a history... or did we imagine that?

And last night it was part of a PATTERN we have seen over and over and over. The auditing involves also the DIEBOLD systems.

And let me tell you this... it is NOT just that county. International Observers should be coming in PERIOD.

[PeaceNikki]

35. What happened last night?

Nothing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. They delayed the release of the data

if you think watching a tabulator is fine, by all means. I have zero faith our elections are actually easy to watch... and it has to do with ones and zeroes... period.

But whatever, Americans will learn, SOMEDAY, just how non exceptional we are and just how dirty these elections are. We need monitors, period.

[PeaceNikki]

41. It took 2 hours and 45 minutes after the polls closed. That's a delay?

lol

You know the DPW had precinct numbers before the county, right? And that they were anxiously waiting for her to release them to be sure they matched. And they did, hence the retraction.

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. I will put it to you this way

I vote... and is is an act of faith. There is no way I can trust tabulators. I could try to explain this to you but I see this is a waste of time.

Thanks for your service, and keep the faith... that's all I can say.

[PeaceNikki]

45. So.... What happened last night?

Dying to know.

[nadinbrzezinski]

49. Accoriding to one of your state senators,

the results were delayed and that smelled... You were watching, we watching your state senators.

Enjoy. I know I trust the elections in the US as much as I trusted the ones in Mexico. Actually those were more trustworthy, since nobody really expected them to be clean.

Matching tabulators is not enough of an audit, PERIOD. And it is NOT limited to WI... it is a NATIONAL problem

[Rex]

22. Same here - after reading the posts and news, we need independent

observers now more then ever.

[EFerrari]

21. I do not want to detract from the victory yesterday

but you seem to have it backward. Unless you have verified voting, you are holding faith based elections. You can't prove the results are accurate.

Watching ballot numbers match up to a tabulator is not a sufficient audit. And there is obviously a problem in that one county that will turn out to be tampering when someone decides to run it down.

It's not special to WI in any way. Most of the country has faith based elections which makes no sense when you consider how much money and time we put into them.

[Rex]

24. We are in need of independent observers, detached from the results.

[PeaceNikki]

26. I don't think it's faith-based because I was there at the recount. We verified ballots against

machine totals.

And yeah, there were bags that had issues with seals and not being properly secured and that sucks because it left the possibility of tampering open. HOWEVER, we counted those bags separately. If there was fraud, I would have expected those tampered bags to weigh more heavily for Prosser. They didn't Not even close. I *wanted* them to so badly, but they didn't. Some even weighed more for Kloppenburg. I am a data geek and crunched my lil heart out. The net result I took away: there was a LOT of slop with the handling of ballots but no evidence of any fraud. The preventive and real action I can take is to observe the polls to make sure things are done right. And I am working with MANY others to do just that.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. + Brazillion... voting is an act of faith any longer.

[Broderick]

23. OK

this is the most encouraging thing I read because it is real, not stupid emotional mucky muck.


I am so down and frustrated and thinking outside the boundaries of Wisconsin in what it all entails.

[DUanonymous]

25. Dems Did Not Perform Well Last Night

This whole thing was a huge waste of money, energy, and attention.

I live in District 10 so I went through this whole process over the last several months. Let me tell you first of all it is extremely annoying to live in an area where an off season election is going on. In one day just because I was curious I answered every call that came in regardless of caller ID. It was 6 push polls in a row. In one day.

And last night did not go well for the democrats at all. And this post is going to be dry!!!

1) Dan Kapanke does not live in a Republican district. I went to school in La Crosse. The entire area is known as "Hippy Valley". The name comes from a migration that occurred in the early 70s when die hard hippies in cities like San Francisco decided that their movement was getting perverted in the city. They decided to move out to the country and live with nature. La Crosse county and surrounding area was a key destination for them because of its beautiful bluffs, rivers, and wildlife refuges. La Crosse is a also a heavy unionized city in Wisconsin and has 3 universities/colleges. Besides the way north west of the state the "arm pit" of Wisconsin is really the only other area of Wisconsin where Democrats perform well in rural areas. Also during redistricting it appears the GOP was expecting Kapanke to lose because they didn't try to add more GOP friendly territory to his district. If your wondering why Kapanke has won in the past its because he owns the baseball team in La Crosse and on a personal level people have tended to like him. Politicize the race in that liberal district and he was bound to fall.

a) Current District Map: <http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/PDFs/Sena... >
b) Redistricted Map: <http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/Bills/sen... >
c) Kapanke 2008 Numbers: (page 16) <http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=15401&lo... >
d) Obama 2008 Numbers: <http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=15385&lo... >
>>La Crosse: 61% Obama Vernon: 60% Obama Crawford: 62% Obama
e) Bush/Kerry 2004 Numbers: {http://165.189.88.185/docview.asp?docid=1416&locid=47}
>>La Crosse: 53% Kerry Vernon: 53% Kerry Crawford: 55% Kerry

Approximate PVI of SD 32 ~ D+5


2) While Hopper is in a more conservative district he is very much disliked in SD 18. He barely squeaked out a victory in 08. Then he had an affair, got divorced and moved out of his house. He doesn't even live in his district any more and instead lives in Madison. He just has his mail sent to friends house still in the district. Needless to say his constituents wanted him out.

a) Current District Map: <http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/PDFs/Sena... >
b) Redistricted Map: <http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/Bills/sen... >
c) Hopper 2008 Numbers: (page 9) <http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=15401&lo... >


3) Myth: The GOP and their Groups outspent the Dem Candidates and their groups. We will never know the exact amount because of how much undisclosed spending their is especially when you talk logistical spending. But anybody that lived in these districts would tell you that the Dems had to be outspending the GOP at least 3 to 1 or the GOP is paying 3+ times more for everything.

a) Look at the ad composition for the races. They are approximately 5 to 1 Dem. <http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Alberta_Darling_r... (2011)>
<http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Randy_Hopper_reca... (2011)>
b) Ad space in the Minneapolis/St. Paul market(not cheap) which covers my district was probably way more than 5 to 1 Dem to GOP and it was continuous(every commercial break). So the ad comparisons to other recall districts appear to hold with my experience.
c) Everybody that came to our door as well as several friends doors while I was visiting was for Shelly Moore. Ground game on Dem side was vastly superior.
d) Of the 3 dozen "push polls" I fielded over a few weeks approximately 70% of those calls were from Democrat interest groups. WEA and AFL-CIO being the two biggest spenders.

4) Myth Dems performed well in Wisconsin: Not quite. Besides taking a Dem district and firing a cheating a**hole the GOP outperformed their 08 numbers.

a) District 8: 2008 50.5% Darling 2011 Recall 53.7% Darling
Darling gained 3.2% from 08 vote
B) District 10: 2008 56.4% Harsdorf 2011 Recall 57.7% Harsdorf
Harsdorf gained 1.3% from 08 vote
c) Olsen and Cowles faced no opposition in 2008
d) Sources: now - <http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_co... >
2008 - <http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=15401&lo... >

5) Even if the Dems took 3 or 4 seats would it have been worth the money? Probably not!!! The next 2 most vulnerable districts were Darling in 10th and Olsen in the 14th. Both districts are very marginally Republican districts like R+3 and R+5 respectively. They are both being made even more Republican for the 2012 elections. Enough so that it would be extremely hard to hold the seats for any Dem. Furthermore the GOP is redistricted itself on offense in 3 additional districts in addition Holperin's district next week which is also becoming even more GOP friendly than it already is. Holperin is in the same position that Kapanke was. Nice guy in unfriendly territory.


Lesson: Wisconsin has been very conservative in local elections for the last 2 decades and less so as you go up ballot. The Dems wasted a ton of money to try to gain control of the senate for only 1 year ahead of an almost guaranteed loss of senate seats in 2012 due to redistricting. Instead of waiting until January they jumped the gun, wasted money, and annoyed a lot of people in 6 districts.

Full disclosure: I'm a right leaning independent. Just felt the uncontrollable urge to explain the unbelievably stupid tactical error that was made in Wisconsin.

[Rex]

27. Not at all! They took away two seats from incumbents last night.

And that was in a heavily Republican area! To me, that spells doom for the GOP in 2012.

[DUanonymous]

28. Not That Awesome

Kapanke's District is Appr. D+5
and
Hopper is an adulterer that his hated by his own constituents.
Those races were forgone conclusions.

Dems needed Olson or Darling or both to claim any big wins.

[sybylla]

59. You're dumping all over DU today with these claims, but you have no evidence to support it.

Yes, Kapanke's district just performed D+5 yesterday. But there is no evidence it was D+5 10 months ago when he almost beat a Dem congressman and when two republicon assemblymen were reelected in his district. It wasn't D+5 three years ago when he got re-elected in against the Obama wave.

Not buying it. Thanks for playing.

[elocs]

61. You noticed that too. Well it's good to have a purpose in life, even if it's tearing things down.

[Broderick]

37. Thanks for the information

[L. Coyote]

29. Actually, yes they can and yes they do, just not every damn one of them.

They can and have stolen elections at will. Get that straight first!

[elocs]

30. My point is that when people begin to believe that Republicans are all-powerful and can easily steal

elections, they become disillusioned and stop bothering to vote altogether because they see no point and that is tragic.

We cannot be screaming election fraud or complaining about a stolen election until we have a clear suspicion and viable proof that there was fraud, not just that the election did not go the way we wanted it to go. People start to look at Democrats as crybabies who cannot accept an election loss.

Like the little boy who cried "wolf" we are then not believed or dismissed when there truly is election fraud or funny business. We need to closely observe elections using smart and savvy people and have lawyers and legal minds at the ready to make the appropriate challenges. I am certain that Waukesha County was closely watched and they would have been very stupid to try anything there.

[Rex]

33. Oh so this is another Dem bashing thread.

Got it, thanks!

[elocs]

39. Unfortunately I do not know what you are talking about.

I'm proud to be a Democrat and worked hard here in Wisconsin in our recall election here in La Crosse. I see no point in crying that every lost election was lost because it was stolen.

I hope you have got that. You are welcome.

[Rex]

47. Yeah bashing Dems...got it.

NO ONE cries over EVERY election and thinks ALL were stolen...that is stupid beyond belief and you cannot prove anyone here on DU believes that...so just go ahead and keep bashing Dems. You seem to need to.

[elocs]

56. It's cried far more often than it ever happens, especially in close election losses.

I've worked too hard to get Democrats elected in this state to listen to your moronic accusations that I am bashing Dems because that is simply bullshit.

The good news (for me) is that I will no longer have to read any of your crap.

[Duke Newcombe]

40. Wakeshau County (after two questionable election "issues") begs to differ.

How many times do we get hit, until we turn around and see who it is who's hitting us?

[PeaceNikki]

42. Nothing happened last night in Waukesha.

Nothing.

[Duke Newcombe]

46. These things were just my imagination...or I was lied to?

-Exit pollsters banned 1 hour after starting
-An over two-hour returns update "blackout"
-A Elections official keeping the vote tabulations on a private computer

[PeaceNikki]

48. The exit pollsters broke election law

LOTS of precincts took just as long or longer and these polls were under VERY heavy scrutiny and were thankfully crossing ALL t's and dotting all i's.

You know the DPW had precinct numbers before the county, right? And that they were anxiously waiting for her to release them to be sure they matched. And they did, hence the retraction to the tampering statement.

[Rex]

50. You just don't get it do you?

Everything was a-okay, because anonymous forum users say so! Why don't you trust people you will never meet? Far better then trusting your imagination! :rofl:

[PeaceNikki]

52. Or... everything is all fucked up and the PTB are out to get us...

because anonymous forum users say so!

[ya sure]

60. and the supreme court election

and just forget all that bullshit with the 'recount'

Oh and Prosser was NOT choking a fellow female justice, he was giving her a massage!

[elocs]

57. You know, PeaceNikki, that there are those who believe they apparently know more

than those of us here in Wisconsin (and especially you) about the goings on in our state and if there is or isn't election fraud happening. If that were not so presumptuous it would be amusing.

There also seems to be those who are dismissive of our winning 2 incumbent senate seats yesterday, that it really was no big deal. I wish we would have known that here in La Crosse because we could have saved a lot of time, money, and effort in getting Jennifer Shilling elected.

Apparently our massive demonstrations in Madison last winter that spawned these recalls first in collecting the required signatures, then working for our candidates in the fake primaries and then the actual recall elections should be dismissed as well since in the eyes of some the recall elections were a failure because we did not get the 3 seats needed. That's a line straight out of the Republican spin playbook today.

Funny, I am disappointed, but I do not feel like a failure. I also eagerly await further instruction from those outside Wisconsin about things that are going on within our own state. Evidently we just don't get it here.

[nadinbrzezinski]

58. The victories are great, and by gosh well deserved

and took a lot of work... but to dismiss that yes, there is a problem with elections is just crazy.

[MessiahRp]

62. The only question I had was why Brown County Dems let Nusbaum run.

If it was because she had some financial connections, I guess, but she's a retread and not exactly that popular a figure up there after being in and out of office for nearly two decades. I remember Jamie Wall running in the House primary race when Steve Kagen ran and he was electric as a speaker and a completely fresh face. He would have been perfect for this. I know GB is no gimmie as far as Democratic votes but Nancy Nusbaum from the onset seemed like a poor choice to me.

Rp