Myrtle Beach to Wilmington, looks like you're on the hot seat right now.

[Stinky The Clown]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/145813.gif

The latest track for Irene seems to spare Florida, but rides up the Gulf Stream further, gaining strength. They're now saying she could be a 3 at landfall.

[StandingInLeftField]

1. We're near Charleston.

We'll give it to Wednesday and then decide whether or not to haul out the plywood. We're overdue...

[Stinky The Clown]

6. Are you north or south of Charleston?

Either way, you could well be vulnerable to at least high water if you're right on the coast - Folly Beach, Kiawah, Edisto, Isle of Palms . . . .

[Skip Intro]

9. Near Charleston as well. Last info I saw had Irene coming in at Edisto.

I was hoping for a little tropical storm this year, but a Cat 3, yikes!

According to this, we should have a more solid idea of the track tomorrow morning:

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

[Warpy]

2. They push the track a little farther east day by day

so there's still a chance it'll just go out to sea.

That's kind of a pity. The southeast is still dry and in desperate need of rain. Having a storm rain itself out over the inland south is just what they need.

[Stinky The Clown]

5. The Gulf Stream could imact that a little bit

The storm could get sort of "attached" to it and ride it right up the coast.

[Loge23]

3. Just what we need - more anxiety!

Started the prep this AM, and we're keeping a close eye on it in Southeast FL.
Already saw some gas jugs being filled at the pumps.
Myrtle Beach is looking like ground zero right now - that will be devastating for them, particularly with the Labor Day w/e looming.
These storms are nasty, if you never experienced one before - if you have, you know. It's usually 12-24 hours of sheer mayhem. The old description of a "freight train on the roof" is dead on.
Some are already kind of wishing for it due to the nearly moribund economy, figuring it will spur some activity. That's how bad it has become.

[Stinky The Clown]

7. I've always been an east coaster.

I've been in or near several hurricanes. I even rode one out aboard ship in the Gulf when I was in the Navy. That was *not* fun on a round bottom, 180 ft wooden ship.

[Throckmorton]

4. Magic Anti-Hurricane Talisman being deployed in Connecticut

I have instructed my 16 year old to unbury the generator in the shed, and move it to the front. It hasn't been run since May.

Tonight I will fire it up for an hour or so:

If it starts, no Hurricane for Coastal Connecticut this weekend.
If it doesn't, we art screwn.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. It won't be that bad in Connecticut.

I recall as a kid some time in the 50s having the eye go over us. I lived very close to the water on the Bridgeport/Stratford line, close to Lewis's Gut.

I also went through one as a teen in the 60s while working at a yacht club in Branford.

Long Island makes a nice buffer!

[Throckmorton]

10. The damage is mostly to trees,

and its been 25 years since the last real hurricane, Gloria. There will be a lot of power outages and blocked streets due to down trees. I live 250 yards from the sound in Niantic. But, the generator started on the first crank, so no hurricanes this summer.

[Stinky The Clown]

12. Hahahaha

BrRrRrRrRMMMMMMMM!

Yup. No storm for you. :)

My wife grew up in that same general area, near Conn College and the CG Academy on the banks of the Thames in New London.

I grew up even closer to the water on the Bpt/Stratford line

[Loge23]

11. Donna

I was a kid in Rockaway Beach NY for Donna. We lived in the first house off the beach, separated only by Shore Front Pkwy. The storm turned the boardwalk into splinters. The handball courts, thick slabs of reinforced concrete, looked like a bomb dropped on them. Rockaway is a thin peninsula between Jamaica Bay and the Atlantic. The bay met the ocean during Donna. My Dad had a picture of him and his cronies in a rowboat at the bar of his favorite watering hole.
Been through a few more in FL - most notably the double whammy of Francis and Jeanne in 2004 (ground zero for those beauts), followed by Wilma in '05.
Reminiscing about them is much more "fun" than living them!
Stay safe all!

[Stinky The Clown]

13. I remember Donna.

I was across Long Island Sound, in CT.

Guess we both survived! :)

[nolabear]

14. Just left Topsail Island last week. Hold on, guys!

It takes a certain kind of people to weather this stuff year after year. My kind. You all know what to do. My thoughts are with you.