Hurricane Irene headed to New York City as a Cat 2?

[Baclava]

[onehandle]

1. The path keeps swinging farther and farther East.

By the time Sunday rolls around, I bet it's a near miss.

[Baclava]

3. yeah - quite possible, depends if it clips the outer banks on the way

That could rub off some intensity along the way too.

wobble wobble

[Island Blue]

7. I live on the OBX

so I'd prefer that it doesn't clip us, but keeps moving to the east BEFORE reaching us. ;-) Either way we're expecting a some wind and rain. The rain will be good - it's been an extremely dry summer featuring multiple wildfires.

[JoePhilly]

5. I've noticed that too ... each day the center of the track is farther out to see ....

[Baclava]

14. Don't count on it - 5 pm advisory - shifting 100 mi to the west after 72 hr?

the satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to improve
this afternoon. A large area of deep convection with very cold
cloud tops has expanded near the eyewall and now solidly surrounds
the eye. Before departing Irene...the Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft measured a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 116 kt
in the northeastern eyewall and a dropsonde measured a minimum
pressure of 954 mb. These data support an initial intensity of
105 kt.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for some
additional strengthening during the next day or two...the new intensity
forecast call for some additional strengthening followed by a
leveling off of the intensity. In 3-4 days....increasing
southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs should induce gradual
weakening...although Irene is expected to remain a large and
powerful hurricane...or even grow in size...as it nears New
England.

The hurricane has been moving northwestward or 310/10 kt. Irene is
expected to turn toward the north-northwest then north through a
break in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic during
the next couple of days. After that time...the hurricane is
forecast to turn north-northeastward around the northwestern side
of the ridge. Between 72 and 96 hours...there remains uncertainty
as to whether Irene turns back toward the north ahead of a
mid-latitude trough moving into the Great Lakes region at that
time.

The new ECMWF shows much more amplification of the trough...
which has resulted in its track shifting over 100 miles to the
west...and this skillful long-range model now defines the western
edge of the guidance envelope. Overall...the guidance envelope has
shifted a little westward at days 4 and 5.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201109.disc.html

[kentauros]

6. The curvature of its path to the North and East

is absolutely normal behavior for most hurricanes :)

[onehandle]

8. Yeah. Looking more and more like Nova Scotia will get whatever's left. nt

[Baclava]

13. You could be right - but it's not just a dot on the map

It's alive and looking pretty healthy right now.

I'd never trust the "experts" completely. Computer models have been wrong before.

[KittyWampus]

24. On Eastern Long Island, there's an extremely thin strip of land connecting Montauk to civilization.

And last year parts of Montauk were flooded just from rain.

Even a "near miss" in certain areas out here could be very bad.

[Baclava]

26. They just reported tropical storm force winds 200+ miles out from the center.

It's big.

[phantom power]

2. It could certainly happen, but they usually end up bending back out into the Atlantic.

Or, lose more energy than is predicted, as part of the system moves over-land.

But, you never know.

[Baclava]

18. Forecasts say a Cat 4 tomorrow

[davepc]

4. Cape Cod is more in danger at the moment.

[Baclava]

9. This is true - but I have a friend flying out of NJ on Sat night.

He wonders if the airports will start freaking out and closing early.

[davepc]

10. They won't close before they have too.

Saturday the storm will still be off the Carolina coast.

[Baclava]

12. That's what I told him...but these things can speed up or slow down - so keep watching

Spaghetti models spread out after the Carolinas too.



and tropical storm force winds will be out in advance of the eye too

[hedgehog]

15. Hey - thanks for that map! I'm in the yellow zone, and I was wondering what

to expect Sunday.

The universities are supposed to be opening this Monday, normally there are a lot of kids moving in this week-end coming up from NYC and Long Island. That should be fun!

[Baclava]

17. Expect to get wet, I'd think. p.s. Don't bother taking an umbrella, they just fly away

...and hope you don't lose power! That part sucks.

[KittyWampus]

25. Eastern Long Island tends to get Cape Cod weather more than NYC's.

[kwolf68]

11. So....

If the hurricane 'misses' the mark, then is that God sending a message that he is cool with gay people?

[Baclava]

16. It's a sign alright....If it slams into NYC with 100mph winds it will leave a mark too

Why does God hate the Big Apple?

[uppityperson]

21. Maybe is still pissed at the snake and Eve? nt

[Nothing Without Hope]

23. Boston is at "extreme threat level" too

Not looking forward to this. Such a lovely day today, it's hard to imagine what's coming.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

19. The Weather Channel has a full erection right now

They would love to see NYC and New England take a direct hit, so they can rave about the death and destruction. They will take any track that has it headed for the most populated area and claim it as the authority of God.

Right now, this could take the same track as Earl, which grazed Cape Cod last year after looking like it would direct hit here. The Navy's track that was so accurate last year has it moving out to the East.

[Baclava]

20. TWC is orgasmic, for sure

but Navy tracking has this going right at NYC

[jimlup]

22. The propability certainly exists but it's a long time 'til then...

The models are not perfect - the only reflect a probability band. I would say that that far out is pretty hard to even give an accurate probability.

[Baclava]

27. When all the models converge - it's time to pay attention.

I've been through enough canes myself, they are pretty accurate on the paths, not so much on the intensity.

[Baclava]

28. It's officially a big one - Jim Cantore has arrived

Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams head into the path of Irene





http://www.examiner.com/the-weather-channel-in-national/jim-cantore-and-stephanie-abrams-head-into-the-path-of-irene