To All DU Readers Who Have Never Experienced a Major Hurricane, Just Trying to Help

[SadPanda]

I moved from Ohio to South Florida over ten years ago. I was financially affected by Hurricane Charlie. I was personally and financially affected by Hurricane Wilma. I was financially affected by Hurricane Ivan.

I understand and can explain the behavior and effects of hurricanes.



Hurricane Irene is a real monster. The reason it is a monster has to do with three factors. Size, track, and rotation. Irene is tracked to just barely hug the coastline of the entire Eastern seaboard of the United States from North Carolina until it slams into Long Island. It's a big storm. Similar to Floyd. And the back rotation over open water will feed it until it's 60 miles past Long Island.

Hurricanes rotate counter clockwise. The southern side of the storm is always rotating to the east. The northern side is whipping back towards the west.

Usually the storm slams into land and the rotation breaks up. This degenerates into a water dump of the entire storm on one particular region. For example, Hurricane Katrina into the NW Gulf Coast or Hurricane Floyd into NC.

This storm is bizarre. It will hug the entire eastern coastline. It appears the storm will literally follow the coastline from southern NC until it collides with Long Island. During that trip the southern CC motion will be carrying wind and water back out into the ocean. Only to whip back to the west on the front of the storm. That front end is like the tip of the spear. That spear won't really die until it's 70 miles past the coast somewhere in upper New England. Even then it will probably drop nearly a foot of rain into those Canadian provinces.



EDIT: Based on the current track of the storm (at 11:50 EST AUG 26) I predict the following.

1.Massive destruction and some deaths throughout the outer banks of North Carolina. Anyone who stayed on the islands and not inside a reinforced high rise hotel could be fighting for their lives.

2. Damage to DC will be mostly water related. It appears the center of the storm will pass just enough to the east to spare the city from major damage.

3. If the winds don't pick up from the west this storm has the potential to cause unprecedented damage to Long Island. At least 80 mph winds slamming into the entire island. Along with unprecedented amounts of waterfall. I really don't understand the geography of the region other than there are a shitload of people. Anyone remaining in an area close to or underneath sea level needs to get approximately 10 feet above sea level to make sure they are safe. And stock up on ice, water, and dried food.

[RKP5637]

1. K&R !!! n/t

[gateley]

2. K&R -- Thanks for the Hurricanes 101. Edit:

VERY well explained, by the way! Even I get it!

Glad this one didn't affect you. :pals:

[Ruby the Liberal]

3. k&r

A hurricane derives its power from the south > east motion. That will remain over water until Long Island.

[snagglepuss]

4. Clear and concise information. Thanks for posting. Welcome to DU.

:hi:

[Lucinda]

5. Thank you for the info!

:hi:

[Avalux]

6. Much better info than anything I've heard on TV. Thanks!

And I'll pray the people in Irene's path understand she's nothing to mess with.

[calimary]

7. This is a really nice little database, SadPanda!

Mind if I post it in the Natural Disaster Survivors Group?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=360

Seems like EXCELLENT and concise basic info to have for a time like this!

:yourock: :patriot: :thumbsup:

[SadPanda]

8. Sure... nt

[rbnyc]

9. I love all this slamming and colliding into Long Island...

...right where I live. I'm kind of nervous.

[SadPanda]

10. From Long Island?

Go buy 15 bags of full ice. Put them in your bathtub.

Hopefully you have a second bathtub. Run your water RIGHT NOW on 2nd bathtub. Run it scolding hot for five minutes with the drain on. Get rid of whatever germs might be in there using hot water. Use paper towels to clean off the top edges. Drain it, turn the drain back on and run COLD water until it is completely filled. If I was in Long Island, I'd make sure any bath tub was completely filled with either ice or cold water just as the storm was arriving. THIS INCLUDES KITCHEN SINKS. STOCKPILE WATER AND ICE.

[calimary]

11. And ziplock bags with water in the freezer, as many as you can fit in there, and let them freeze.

Then later if you lose power, you still have a source of cooling.

Don't fill them all the way. Leave a little space for expansion. Water expands as it freezes.

[rbnyc]

18. I'm doing this now.

Thanks.

[shireen]

12. excellent concise summary

thank you so much! it was very informative. do you have meteorological training, or are you a weather enthusiast? Either way, you've explained it better than news reports I've seen today.

[Hoopla Phil]

13. The problem? Irene is not a major hurricane.

It is a cat 2 that is being treated by the media as if it's a cat 4 or 5.

[readmoreoften]

15. Ike was a Cat 1. It's a little more complex than windspeed.

[Igel]

17. Ike made landfall in Galveston with windspeeds of about 110 mph.

That's the high end of Category 2. Not of concern for most of the area, but it also had an unexpectedly high storm surge. It didn't help that SE Texas is really flat and low, and because the water table's really high in some areas anything carrying electricity tends to be above ground.

Irene's low-end Cat 2 and mostly Cat 1.

The primary problem with Irene is rainfall and an infrastructure that should be built to Cat 3 or 4 standards but hasn't been tested for a while, and in NYC/LI storm surge. The surge for most of the coast, if she moves as predicted, is going to be oblique.

[ellenrr]

16. it seems to depend on which channel you watch..

the weather channel forecast for nj for tonight and tomorrow says winds of 25-40 miles an hour and 2-4 inches of rain.
That doesn't sound too bad.
Other channels like cnn are predicting major disaster up and down the east coast.

[sabrina 1]

14. Thank you for a very informative post.

Almost all of my family and friends on the East coast are right in the path of the storm according to the tracker I have been watching. On Long Island, North Carolina, New Jersey (they always seem to get the worst of these storms) and New York City. Almost all, except for those in NJ and NYC, are on or near the water. I am really worried about Long Island.

On the map below, from where the Island splits into two tails, going west, it becomes more and more populated. As you travel closer to the city, it is very highly populated and much of the population lives near or on the water, the South side on the Atlantic, the North on The Long Island Sound. This means millions of people who will be affected.



As you go east, away from NYC, LI splits into two forks a bit more than half way out, the North and South (the Hamptons are on the South Fork and so is Montauk Point. The South Fork is on the Atlantic Ocean side.

The North Fork is between the Long Island Sound and Peconic Bay. At the tip of the North Fork is Orient Point, where the big ferries leave for New London every day. I may be wrong, but the way the storm is tracking, it looks like the South Fork will take the brunt of the storm from the Atlantic side.

There are so many homes right on the Atlantic, stretching for miles and miles. Further in towards NYC the Island is much more populated with a lot more homes on the water on both the North and South Shores. There are also canals and lakes etc. If it remains as big as it is, I think many of those homes will be swept away. It would not be the first time.

But many locals whose families have there for generations, have been saying for several years now that the Island is due for a 'big one' and when it comes, it could wash away the entire tip of the South Shore, Montauk Point. There the Atlantic Ocean meets the LI Sound and even without a Hurricane fishing out there is an adventure. A storm churning up those two big bodies of water will be disastrous, imo. Everyone needs to evacuate. And they should do so tomorrow as there is only one way out and that will be filled with traffic. Even on a normal weekend it is difficult to get back to the city from that area on a summer weekend.



Montauk Point on the Southern Tip of the South Fork on LI.

We have been there so often, it is truly beautiful. I would be heartbroken as would everyone else, if the Lighthouse does not survive. It is the pride and joy of so many of the local people.

The Lighthouse has been restored with funds raised every year by people like Paul Simon and other celebrities. The town, the fishing boats, the whole area is beautiful. Not too far to the west of the Point, I have friends who live right on Peconic Bay in Noyac. I hope their house survives and I hope they leave.

This was where many people think the book 'Jaws' was written about.

On the North Fork, there are also many homes on the way out to Orient Point. There is also several towns and villages, Greenport being one of the bigger towns and right on the water. They will not lose power as they have their own generator and most people will be going there to eat etc. after the storm. Anyone out there will have to leave also. Little villages will probably be flooded as nowhere out there is too far from the water.



Orient Point on the Northern Tip of the North Fork of LI

And that's just one relatively small Island populated by millions of people. Millions more all along the coast and in NYC itself and the boroughs, all will be affected in one way or another. And of course there are other smaller islands that are populated, like Block Island in the LI Sound eg.

My sister and her family live on the North Fork of LI, about a block from Peconic Bay. So far, she is not planning to evacuate.

[Remember Me]

19. Got relatives out on Montauk for the summer

"kids" who think they know everything, aren't threatened by a mere hurricane, and are staying... Hope they enjoy themselves ... and survive.

[sabrina 1]

20. I hope they are okay also. Although I can't really criticize them

too much as we used to be pretty blase about hurricanes and nor'easters also. But Katrina cured a lot of people who live in vulnerable areas of that attitude. Now, I would definitely not be so casual about it.

Good luck to them. I'm surprised the area hasn't been evacuated though. My friends in Northport tell me they have the National Guard ready to help evacuate people if necessary, although they are not doing it right now.

[AsahinaKimi]

21. Thats huge..

[cwydro]

22. There has not been massive destruction on the Outer Banks.

The deaths so far attributed to the storm were also not on the Outer Banks.

From what I understand, one was a tree falling inland (Rocky Mount), a car accident and a heart attack.

I have lived through several hurricanes also...one thing I know for sure: they are UNPREDICTABLE.

[SadPanda]

23. The storm weakened, from a projected high 2 to low 3 to a low 1, since I posted this thread

Regardless, it's better to warn of the worst then remain silent and say nothing.