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Edited on Tue Nov-01-11 08:56 AM by JoePhilly
You'll see that it tends to run in a average range between ~10,500 and ~12,500. We had the ridiculous spike to 14k, which lasted 12 minutes, and then the drop to 6,500 which also didn't last very long.
After the crash to 6500, the DOW returned to ~11,000 in less than 1 year.
And since that initial return to 11k, the DOW is again running in a range between about ~10,500 and ~12,500.
What seems to be happening is that anytime the DOW starts to approach one of the ends of this range people start to either buy in some more, or they cash out some more. So say you have 10k in the market and you bought in at 10,900. Then when the DOW hits 11,900, you sold it. You now have 11k. When the DOW drops to 10,900, you buy back in, and then you sell again when the DOW hits 11,900 ... and then you do it again. And you keep doing it so long as you believe that we'll be moving horizontally.
Basically, we're moving horizontally. And with the obstructionist GOP, we'll probably continue to do so. And so investors are going to cash in some when the DOW goes to the upper bound, and then buy back in when it approaches the lower bound.
I should mention that you never totally "cash out", or move everything "in". You change the ratio of cash to stock holdings ... so you have more cash as the DOW goes up (because you are taking gains off the table), and less cash as it goes down (because you are moving cash back in). You can also set multiple trigger points on both ends. So say the dow is going UP, you might sell some at 11,500, a little more at 12k, a little more at 12.5k ... so on ... same on the lower end.
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