Spain election: Rajoy's Popular Party predicted to win

[xchrom]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15809062

Voters in Spain are heading to the polls in an election expected to bring in a new conservative government to tackle the country's finances.

Opinion polls have given the centre-right Popular Party, led by Mariano Rajoy, a clear lead over the governing Socialist Party.

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero - who is not standing for re-election - called the election amid concerns over the economy.

Mr Zapatero has led Spain since 2004.




*** the socialists are going to be sacked -- the nationalists take over.

[PoliticAverse]

1. "It's the economy, stupid". n/t

[xchrom]

2. i had hope for the socialists -- but they really blew it.

'its the economy, stupid.' -- indeed.

[ikri]

3. During a recession the party in power loses

In pretty much every single election held during a recession, especially one in a country where the official unemployment rate is 20%, the party in power will lose. It doesn't matter what their political leanings are, or what good (or bad) they've done in the past, people will simply vote for someone else to try and fix the problem.

If Spain was currently being governed by the Popular Party, they'd be expected to lose too. In the US you're probably lucky to have those mid-term elections where the Republicans "won" or you'd probably be looking at a Republican victory next year.

[fasttense]

6. What about FDR?

True the RepubliCON Herbert Hoover lost the election and was replaced by Democratic President FDR during the beginning of the first RepubliCON Great Depression but in 1940 he got reelected despite the double dip Depression in 1937-1938 due to attempts at paying off the deficit. By the time of his reelection in 1940 unemployment was still above or at 10% (depending on whose numbers you use).

I don't think it is guarantee that a recession will cause the incumbent party to lose - Not if the public knows the other party caused the recession, is preventing further improvement in the economy and the economy is showing some small amount of recovery.

[xchrom]

4. Economic crisis dominates last day of election campaigning in Spain

http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_32731.shtml

The General Election candidates are getting what they can out of the last day of campaigning today; Saturday is a day of reflection, and voting takes place on Sunday.

Rubalcaba will end his campaign with a rally in Fuenlabrada, Madrid, while Rajoy has chosen the Palacio de los Deportes in the capital to end his campaign.
Rubalcaba has been telling his supporters that if the left wing vote is split it will lead to a PP ‘monoparty’ with an overall majority. ‘Those who fight against the two party system could prejudice the worker and his rights’, he said. He called in Barcelona on Thursday for a strong PSOE to stop ‘social reversals’.

Mariano Rajoy gave a detailed interview to El País yesterday in which he gave an undertaking to protect pensions but nothing else. He said that he would meet the deficit targets set by the EU. However Maria Dolores de Cospedal, PP General Secretary, has been telling El Mundo today that ‘Mariano Rajoy is not prepared to take orders from Europe or anyone else’.

Read more: http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_32731.shtml#ixzz1eFPuMMEv

[xchrom]

5. An election for nothing

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/1184751-election-nothing

Pure coincidence or faithful reflection of the world we live in, the two most recent election reversals in Spain, that of 2004 and, predictably, this Sunday the 20th of November, have proceeded in parallel with events (the 2004 Madrid train bombings and the worsening eurozone crisis) that reveal in stark fashion the utter impossibility of separating the national from the international. Today, as in 2004, the security challenges facing the public – of course, at different magnitudes: physical security then, economic security today – are as much beyond as they are within our own borders.

To restore the credibility of Spain internationally and place the country at the forefront of European leadership will, inevitably, mean returning to the path of growth, creating good quality jobs and boosting our productivity: in short, rectifying our past mistakes. But the truth is that the sacrifices resulting from budget cuts and structural reforms can turn out to be useless if they’re not accompanied by far-reaching European decisions.
Markets have discounted reforms at national level

If the polls aren’t mistaken, Spain is about to complete the changes in government in the four countries in the south of Europe that until now have suffered the greatest financial difficulties. The trajectories of each differ greatly: from the intervention in relatively stable Portugal to the constant intervention in permanently unstable Greece, passing through Italy on probation, under a government of technocrats and obliged to show up at the bailiff’s regularly; and finally to a Spain that, despite having undertaken major reforms, has found these were insufficient or ignored by the markets.

The governments of southern Europe have already revealed, or are about to reveal, all their cards: cuts, austerity, government by technocrats – whatever it takes, though there isn’t much left in the repertoire. In addition, the icy reception by the markets of the technocrats moving into office in Greece and Italy, plus the hike in the risk premium that Spain is getting hit by, are the best proof that solutions to the crisis are much more to be found beyond our borders than inside them.