Anyone know of a scientific website giving cogent theories about current weather? It is important .

[DuaneBidoux]

that scientists begin to have explanations for the kind of winter weather we are having and that they communicate it clearly so that people understand that this does nothing to undermine global warming theories. So far I have yet to find such a site.

Can someone link me up (empirical and scientiific, not political).

I'm sitting here is HOuston, getting the day off tomorrow because my business has closed by weather that has literally never been seen here before. I need a way to talk rationally to my fellow workers about why this doesn't mean global warming is a hoax.

[Khan Descend]

1. No links offhand, but here's a quick analogy that I find useful:

If you drive from Houston to Denver, you will go up many hills and you will go DOWN many hills but you'll still end up a mile higher than where you started.

[aquart]

2. Stop calling it global warming. It's CLIMATE CHANGE.

When the ice at the North Pole melted, it changed the air currents at the Pole which changed the lovely Gulf Stream so that we are no longer protected from the icy polar winds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article520013.ecehttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article520013.ece

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/melting-ice-caps-weather-460210

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_can_the_melting_of_the_polar_ice_caps_affect_the_gulf_stream

http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm

http://www.satyakomatineni.com/akc/display?url=displaynoteimpurl&ownerUserId=satya&reportId=2985

Start with these. They seem to be on various levels. Some are for teachers.

[Dappleganger]

6. +1000000

[pnorman]

12. Thanks for those links!

n/t

[Viking12]

13. That John Daly site is 100% whacked denier territory...

..just sayin'

[ChoppinBroccoli]

3. You Might Want To Dumb It Down For Them

Most people who chortle and snort that snow in the winter proves that Global Warming is a hoax don't have the capacity to understand all that scientific mumbo-jumbo, and they certainly won't be moved by it. So you should use a simple explanation. You might try Al Gore's response to Bill O'Lielly. It explains things in a simple way AND proves your point.

When I encounter these kinds of people, I just remind them that in order to get snow, all you need is 1) moisture in the air and 2) temperatures below 32 degrees. Then you drop the hammer on them by telling them that more snow means more moisture in the air, and that there is more moisture in the air because Global Warming has been melting the polar ice.

I've never gotten an intelligent response from these people. The most common response is, "Whatever, Al Gore," and then they snicker amongst themselves at how dumb you are as they change the subject to last night's episode of Celebrity Cockfighting.

[boppers]

4. Global Warming is a hoax... perpetuated by the right wing, to claim cold weather is disproof.

It's getting warm in some places, cooler in others, and overall the whole planet is slightly warmer... but that doesn't mean that everywhere will be warmer all the time.

Call is "climate change", so the mouth-breathers will understand that it's bigger than "hot" or "cold".

[Motown_Johnny]

5. try this thread from a few days ago as a starting point

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x334899

[hay rick]

7. Global warming is global.

The state of Texas is about 260,000 sq. miles. The Arctic Circle comprises approx. 5.4 million sq. miles- more than 20 times greater area. If winter weather is 20 degrees colder than usual in Texas but 2 degrees warmer than usual north of the Arctic Circle, the net contribution of the two areas to global warming is about +1 degree.

The people who are eager to pronounce global warming a hoax seize on ice and snow in normally warm regions as proof of something are engaged in a vicious kind of wishful thinking. I can keep my SUV with a clear conscience.

Yes something is happening outside your window. But something much bigger is happening out of your immediate view. Suggest they check out iceberg collapse videos on youtube or actually read an article or two.

A lot of people are connecting the current weather pattern with the La Nina- but that's just a whole nother can of worms when you're dealing with deniers.

Here's a link which includes good information on the credentials of proponents and deniers of global warming: http://www.climatepath.org/aboutus/science

From the article:
Don't some scientists disagree?

Yes, some do. Just as some scientists disagree about evolution, and about the health effects of tobacco. A minority report released to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee listed 700 scientists who disagree.

A survey study of several thousand leading scientists conducted by the University of Illinois found that 82% believe that human activity has been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures. Climatologists who are active in research showed the strongest consensus on the causes of global warming, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role. Petroleum geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 and 64 percent respectively believing in human involvement. Many listed in the minority report are meteorologists and petroleum geologists.

The survey study concluded that, "The more you know about the field of climate science, the more you're likely to believe in global warming and humankind's contribution to it." The study also concluded that "the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes. The challenge now is how to effectively communicate this to policy makers and to a public that continues to mistakenly perceive debate among scientists."

[EC]

8. They have said this would happen many times

and explained how. People just don't listen.


Even the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" tried to explain it. If you have seen that movie you must remember that it was ice and cold and snow that resulted.


Other than the change in temps, the movie explained that with so much melting at the poles, the saliency of the water is weakening causing it to warm faster and longer. Thus changing the temp of air. There is also the deforesting of Africa, causing an increase in winds, since the natural buffers of large trees are gone. Like our dust bowl back in the 20's and 30's.

[Johonny]

9. They know it gets cold in the northern hemisphere in the winter right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season

Is a particular storm more/less severe now than ever before because of say Climate change? Frankly it's really hard to know this. It snows and gets cold in the winter in the Northern hemisphere. Daily weather isn't the same as long term climate. Thus using today's weather to disprove long term climate change is non-nonsensical. It's like saying you got hired for a job today, so Americas economy has recovered. Jobs and the whole economy have some connection, but one persons day to day work load don't make for an economy any more than today's weather in Houston makes for a global climate.

good climate introduction.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/

[PADemD]

10. You may find some information here

http://spaceweather.com/

There are also several links to explore.

[justabob]

11. La Nina

I saw it being talked about in regard to Africa on al jazeera last night, I think. La nina/el nino do funny things to the weather.


The Google gave me this that has several links within, and is a good place to start maybe?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

on edit, a snip:

Likely La Niña impacts during January-March 2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies (along with a concomitant increase in snowfall), Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Below-average precipitation is favored across the southwestern and southeastern states. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for much of the West Coast and northern tier of states (excluding New England), and a higher possibility of above-average temperatures is forecast for much of the southern and central U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on December 16th, 2010). While seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in the U.S. are strongly influenced by La Niña, these signals can be modified by other factors, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/ North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).