Besides Webb, who else will not be in the senate in Jan '13?

[SoCalDem]

Retiring Democrats
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Jim Webb of Virginia

Retiring Republicans
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas

Democratic incumbents
Dianne Feinstein of California
Tom Carper of Delaware
GONE Bill Nelson of Florida
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Ben Cardin of Maryland
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
GONE Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
GONE Claire McCaskill of Missouri
GONE Jon Tester of Montana
GONE Ben Nelson of Nebraska
GONE Bob Menendez of New Jersey
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
GONE Sherrod Brown of Ohio
GONE Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
Bernie Sanders of Vermont
Maria Cantwell of Washington
GONE Joe Manchin of West Virginia
GONE Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

Republican incumbents
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Olympia Snowe of Maine
GONE? Scott Brown of Massachusetts
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
John Ensign of Nevada
Bob Corker of Tennessee
Orrin Hatch of Utah
John Barrasso of Wyoming

[Kennah]

1. Bernie Sanders will likely face a very well financed challenge

I don't expect Rich Tarrant to run again, but perhaps a wealthy hedge fund manager.

Russ Feingold got knocked off. It could happen to Bernie Sanders.

[jtown1123]

Bernie is so incredibly popular I doubt any challenger has a chance.

[garybeck]

11. don't worry about Bernie

the latest rumor of who is going to run against him is our current state auditor who recently got a DUI.... and won his last 2 elections by slim margins.... he think's he's a lot more popular than he is.... he was a D but changed to R and I think this angered a lot of Ds. basically he couldn't touch Bernie. Tarrant was a joke.

[cali]

35. nah, it really couldn't. VT ain't Wisconsin

and one thing Vermonters really detest is a big buck candidate. I always tell people to look at Fred Tuttle for an object lesson.

[sadbear]

2. Klobuchar?

[SoCalDem]

4. Princess Bachmann will end up running for that seat

:puke:

[sadbear]

6. And you think she will win it?

[SoCalDem]

10. If Feingold can lose...yes

Bachmann is a prolific moneyraiser & look how close Franken's election was..:scared:

[elocs]

3. The numbers pretty much doom Dems with the GOP only needing a net gain of 4.

This situation was reversed to favor Democrats in '06 (?) and now it favor Republicans.

[SoCalDem]

5. oops a glitch..duped

[SoCalDem]

7. '14 is just as ugly.. I don't see a single R loss

[elocs]

12. Yep, it just keeps getting better and better. n/t

[ChairmanAgnostic]

8. Hatch is a goner.

The closer that Kyl aligns himself with Teabuggering assholes, the more likely that people will wake up and just say no.

Lugar, he's probably in trouble because he is too liberal, and he dares talk across the aisle.
Corker is safe. Too many asshole conservatives pollute that beautiful state.
Barrasso only has to go hunting with Dick of CHeney, and he's set.
Ensign? that is a pusslement. puzzlement. whatever. Maybe his parents will pay voters to keep him in.
Wicker is a shoo in.

[SoCalDem]

9. Who knows.. Sharron Engle may take Kyl's seat

wouldn't that be fun:)

[KamaAina]

18. She'd have to move from NV to AZ

is that even possible at such a late date?

[SoCalDem]

19. aaack.. I got my wackos mixed up

It's getting harder to keep them straight :spank:

[ChairmanAgnostic]

37. understandable. They all melt together over time.

Frankly, between O'Donnell, Palin, Bachmann, Brewer, Angle - anything any one of them says is easily put in the mouth of any of the others.

[Freddie Stubbs]

13. Casey Gone? Not likely

Casey has won four state-wide elections in PA. His only loss was in the 2002 gubernatorial primary against Ed Rendell.

[Bunny]

22. I don't see Casey gone, either.

He's pretty popular, a conservative Democrat,and he's pretty much stayed under the wingnut radar. Plus I don't know who the Republicans or Teabaggers could dig up that would have a statewide name and be popular enough to unseat Casey. I think he's good for another term.

[SoCalDem]

25. Ricky wants back into national politics & I think once he sees that president

is something that he'll NEVER be, he may decide to try to get back into the senate.. I never underestimate the teabag people, and he would fit right into their little teapot..

[Bunny]

26. No. That's not going to happen.

[SoCalDem]

28. Good... That guy creeps me OUT!

[Freddie Stubbs]

29. He's too busy running for President to be bothered with a Senate Campaign

[tabbycat31]

14. I think Menendez is safe

As of right now he's polling well ahead of his GOP challengers and Obama on the ticket should help.

I can possibly see us picking up John Ensign and Olympia Snowe's seat on the R side in addition to Scott Brown's.

[SoCalDem]

15. If Christie stays popular, Menendez will have a tough row to hoe.

[tabbycat31]

24. Christie is not as popular as they say he is

His disapproval stands at 40% as of today and it will be interesting to see what happens this year with the whole state house up.

Menendez has yet to announce his bid for reelection and I'm waiting for the day that he does. If he runs the campaign right he will be fine. (Now selfishly I want him to start his campaign ASAP so I can work for him).

[SoCalDem]

27. True, but the media loves to puff him up

and we all know how they really decide who's in and who;s out:grr:

[tabbycat31]

30. Don't remind me about the media's love affair with him

[bluestate10]

39. Christie's mistakes running the state will help democrats, starting in 2012.

Obama wins the state handily and bring in a bumper crop of New Jersey democrats with him. Christie won the governorship because Corzine was a self absorbed fool. Democrats in New jersey will put up a bruiser against Christie in the next governor's race, not that they will need to, Christie's mistakes will doom him.

[barbiegeek]

16. Are all these people retiring or it's a list of seats up for grabs

Please make your Title easier to understand.

[SoCalDem]

20. There are headings with each group..and ALL these seats are UP in '12

I don't know how to make it plainer.. the new ones will take office in "13:)

[barbiegeek]

43. You didn't write the seats were up for re-election

No you weren't specific. Plainer-that wasn't nice.

[KamaAina]

17. LIEberman is not a Democrat

He's a retiring independent something-or-other.

[librechik]

21. Don't forget Lieberman

believe me, I won't miss him at all

[SoCalDem]

23. he's near the top of the list..as retiring

good riddance

[Inuca]

31. Don't you think that

you are jumping to conclusions just a tiny, tiny bit? Put somewhat less politely, you are making things up based on very little info.

[SoCalDem]

32. time will tell.. I remember how many dems went on tv last Nov

predicting that "things would not be so bad".. and then they were..

It's a year off and the media is already spinning their web.. I also think that Feinstein may just decide to retire, but her seat should be safe.

[Inuca]

34. It's actually

closer to two years off. So predicting so much in advance is a rather futile exercise.

[bluestate10]

41. The OP's projections make as much sense as democrats

predicting the end of the republican party after the 2008 elections. The elections results for 2012 and 2014 depend upon how well republicans lead, and thankfully, republicans are making a mess of leading so far. I seriously doubt that republicans will find the right policy by 2012. Republicans will demonetize public service workers like teachers and firefighters and fire many of those groups, but when their states and cities become hellholes, voters will clearly see what they voted for. Democrats have proven to be better at leading for over six decades, democrats only get into trouble when they become arrogant and forget the tenets of good leadership, being humble, focusing on the common citizens, and studiously avoiding even a hint of corruption.

[hfojvt]

33. Kohl is gonna get beat?

Who is making these predictions? Is Feingold gonna beat him in a primary? Because I thought Kohl always won handily. He has a ton of money and he's already a moderate Republican in a left-leaning state in a Presidential year.

I don't see how Klobuchar gets beat either, especially not by BTO.

[cali]

I don't think Sherrod will be taken out or

or Klobuchar or Menendez. The rest looks pretty accurate.

[SoCalDem]

40. I only worry about Klobuchar because she's still a bit of a novice & Bachmann

raises shitloads of money.. I think she'll give up on the presidential thing, but I do think she'll run for the senate.

I also do not trust Christie & he is a shifty guy who could make Menendez' run very difficult.

and with Kasich in charge, I don't trust anything in Ohio to work well for us..

[WI_DEM]

36. much of your goner list for Dems is largely shit, Kohl is very popular here and will win

Democrat Herb Kohl approaches a possible 2012 re-election bid in a “pretty solid position,” according to the same survey by Public Policy Polling noted in the post below.

The numbers can be found here. The highlights:

Kohl leads in hypothetical match-ups with Republicans Tommy Thompson, Paul Ryan and J.B. Van Hollen.

Kohl’s approval rating is 50%, his disapproval rating 35%.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/111879014.html


You don't even put a "gone" next to Ensign who is by many estimates the most endangered person running next year and may even be primaried.

Amy Klobuchar?

First-term Sen. Amy Klobuchar remains popular in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling. The Minnesota Democrat leads each of the Republicans who were tested by 10 points or more. Roll Call Politics rates this race Leans Democratic.

“Amy Klobuchar is the most popular of 66 Senators PPP has measured in 2010, and she won her first election to the Senate four years ago by 20 points,” the Democratic polling firm noted in its release.


Bob Menendez?
U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, a Democrat who has just under two years left in his term, polls well ahead of potential Republican rivals in a survey released this morning.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll shows Menendez besting Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (R-Union), who ran against him unsuccessfully in 2006, 44 to 34 percent.

Menendez beats state Sen. Michael Doherty (R-Warren), a tea party favorite who considered a run for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination in 2008, 40 percent to 30 percent; and defeats Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 47 percent to 26 percent. Menendez would also beat state Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth), state Sen. Jennifer Beck (R-Monmouth) and biotech executive John Crowley by double digit margins.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/01/sen_menendez_would_beat_nj_rep.html

Sherrod Brown?

U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) is positioned to make a strong bid for re-election in two years, slightly better than President Obama, according to poll kicking off the 2012 election cycle.



With the 2010 election barely in the history books, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute has polled more than 1,200 registered Ohio voters to get the first snapshot of what is likely to be a hard-fought set of political campaigns less than two years from now.



In a head-to-head matchup between Mr. Brown and an unnamed Republican, Mr. Brown would win today by a 45 to 33 percent margin, while Mr. Obama would carry Ohio 44 to 39 percent, with the rest not sure, according to the poll released Thursday.

http://www.toledoblade.com/article/20110121/NEWS09/101210304/0/OPINION04

Bob Casey?

PPP's early looks ahead to the 2012 Senate races have found a lot of the Democrats first elected in the wave year of 2006 to be extremely vulnerable for Reelection- Bob Casey is not one of them.

He has solid approval numbers and leads five prospective opponents tested against him by margins ranging from 7 to 23 points. 41% of voters in the state approve of the job Casey is doing to 29% who disapprove.

http://politifi.com/news/Casey-looks-pretty-solid-1510422.html

Bill Nelson?

Florida voters generally like U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and would return him to office over an unnamed Republican opponent in 2012, according to a new poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University.

Florida's senior Senator has a job approval rating of 45 percent, under the magic number of 50 percent, which is seen as indicative of strong re-election prospects. But Nelson fails to stir up much anger among voters, with only 21 percent not approving of his job performance.

http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/403455/abel-harding/2011-02-03/poll-florida-voters-bill-nelson-leads-unnamed-republican

Also Olympia Snowe could be defeated in a presidential election year and if she is teabagged. The 2012 electorate is not going to be the same as the 2010.

[bigwillq]

38. Where have I been?

Didn't know Webb announced retirement.
The things you learn on DU! :)

:hi:

[Awsi Dooger]

42. We'll hang on to several of those goners

2012 should be more of a 50/50 national environment than 2010, which always set up as a disaster. I didn't have enough energy to pay much attention.

Granted, the net looks bad, strictly on mathematical likelihood. Once we picked up the massive senate swings in '04 through '08 you had to project a steady dwindle.

With Conrad and Webb out, we're unlikely to hold the senate, but not as decisive an underdog as regaining the House. Re-electing Obama looks more imperative all the time.